Search content
Sort by

Showing 20 of 143 results by Bitcoin BEAR
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Block Reward changing to 25 BTC in November-December 2012
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 08/05/2014, 21:11:22 UTC
Actually it's interesting that previous halving coincided with a price bump that eventually leaded to an April bubble.

Is it a mere coincidence? A reason or an excuse for a bubble? Wink

Definitely just a reason to bubble.
This was public knowledge and should have been well priced in long before we got to it. The next halving is a ways away, so it has little influence over price as of yet, but it will eventually cause a boom as long as Bitcoin doesn't die first.
NO, I'm not saying Bitcoin is doomed, just that a lot can happen in 2 years so you don't know.
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: One more capitulation event or not, that's the question
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 07/05/2014, 00:40:56 UTC
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: I give up
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 29/04/2014, 12:07:38 UTC
Sounds like the start of capitulation
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: BTC drop to next level coming...bail the F out now!
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 28/04/2014, 22:34:34 UTC
I must agree with the OP. As the price continues to drop, I continue to bail the F out... of fiat!



 Grin

Way to just throw your money away.

Did you know that it takes a 200% profit to break even on a 50% loss?
Something to think about! Wink
It grows exponentially too
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Very bearish Elliot Wave analysis
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 28/04/2014, 03:51:46 UTC
It has always been worth at least 6 digits. Most of the world is just slow to catch on.

Well, sure! To someone who bought at 4 digits, there would be a bit of bias there.Huh
And there we go with the blatant trolling. Explain why it's different this time.

I'm not necessarily saying it's different this time. But you can't exactly say with any amount of certainty that it'll keep going up indefinitely. Just because Bitcoin has always stayed above the previous ATH doesn't mean that it always will. It is still a new technology and has a very real chance of failing in the future. It is code. No code is perfect nor unbreakable.

The point is, yes I'm trolling! But only because you (the permabull, not YOU specifically) think that any argument you don't agree with is just trolling, when in fact both sides are just stating their respective opinions. Since you nor anyone else on this forum knows FOR SURE what the future holds for Bitcoin, I don't think it's fair that you guys say without doubt, that Bitcoin is too big to fail and will make millionaires out of all who share your belief.

If everyone is making money, then no one is making money! Wink
Nobody has said it will keep going up forever. A common straw man. Leave that shit at the door.

There are two scenarios. Either it gets adopted worldwide which will require the price to go up, or it does not which will result in a near zero value. A scenario where it just stays where it is forever is simply not realistic. Only question is the timeline and final price.

6 digits is a conservative estimate for worldwide adoption. This is not a guess or hopeful dreams, it is math. Elementary math at that. There is nothing to argue about here.

I don't get why it MUST be binary. Why is there no middle ground?

If worldwide adoption occurs, then I agree that 6 digits is a safe bet. But then I ask, why should Bitcoin be valued at it's maximum potential right now, when it has not yet reached it's maximum potential? The true value should rise with real use and not just speculative demand, but that real use is, compared to trade volume, minuscule at the moment.
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Very bearish Elliot Wave analysis
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 28/04/2014, 03:28:27 UTC
It has always been worth at least 6 digits. Most of the world is just slow to catch on.

Well, sure! To someone who bought at 4 digits, there would be a bit of bias there.Huh
And there we go with the blatant trolling. Explain why it's different this time.

I'm not necessarily saying it's different this time. But you can't exactly say with any amount of certainty that it'll keep going up indefinitely. Just because Bitcoin has always stayed above the previous ATH doesn't mean that it always will. It is still a new technology and has a very real chance of failing in the future. It is code. No code is perfect nor unbreakable.

The point is, yes I'm trolling! But only because you (the permabull, not YOU specifically) think that any argument you don't agree with is just trolling, when in fact both sides are just stating their respective opinions. Since you nor anyone else on this forum knows FOR SURE what the future holds for Bitcoin, I don't think it's fair that you guys say without doubt, that Bitcoin is too big to fail and will make millionaires out of all who share your belief.

If everyone is making money, then no one is making money! Wink
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Very bearish Elliot Wave analysis
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 28/04/2014, 03:02:59 UTC
It has always been worth at least 6 digits. Most of the world is just slow to catch on.

Well, sure! To someone who bought at 4 digits, there would be a bit of bias there.


How do you separate actual use from the speculative demand? I'd like to see data backing that it's not just your own sentiment.

I can claim that one BTC is worth one million, and would be as valid as your opinion of $25, but in the end, the price is dictated by the market, clear and simple. It's currently $429.

Fair enough!
I'll try to compile my lists of data and post it up


You assume that Bitcoin has zero use as a store of value. A price of 50 dollars/BTC, total market cap 600 million dollars, assumes that one million users have a demand of only 600 dollars worth of Bitcoin per person. Anyone who believes that is totally disconnected from reality.

That isn't how market capitalization works, besides, when there are indeed 1M users then maybe it'll be worth more.
Bitcoin is a terrible store of value except when it's rising. If you were one of the unlucky saps that bought at $1200 where would you be now? You either sold in which case you aren't storing anything, or you are down 60%. I just don't see how that is a good store of value.

Oh maybe you meant a good store of value for those who got in earlier than most???
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Very bearish Elliot Wave analysis
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 28/04/2014, 02:12:34 UTC
I find that lots of people doing TA in BTC often fails because of several things:

1) Failure to take into account exponential user adoption in an otherwise uncapitalized market.
2) Failure to take into account unforeseen news, for better or worse.
3) Failure to take into account foreseen news, such as new exchanges opening, and capital investment pouring in.
3) Failure to take into account unforeseen BTC development timelines, such as sidechains.
4) Ultimately not being able to see the forest for the trees.

The "rules" that Dan keeps bringing up doesn't work in the face of sudden developing news. Will we be talking about "corrections", "a, b, and c" when Second Market opens to the greater public? I think not. Will we be talking about "regression" and "downtrend" when sidechains crushes the altcoin market? No!

These guys doing TA in BTC assumes that they are still in a stock market when really, BTC is a stock, a currency, and an emerging technology that is the internet of money. The Elliott Wave analysis works only on a micro timescale, when it comes to macro timescale, these guys can't see the forest for trees!

Not seeing $5000 for 3-4 years? Sure, if we assume that the bitcoin technology stays the same, the userbase stays the same, and capital not pouring in. There will be no Second Market, no Winklevoss ETF, no US exchanges opening, no sidechain, and on and on.



1) It's only Exponential during rises. This doesn't mean the user base is not expanding, just that it isn't likely that it's exponential right now. Proof would be gladly accepted.
2) Irrelevant! The effect news will have is dependent on the way it is perceived. News is perceived differently in rises than declines.
3-a?) New exchanges are only a short term bump in the overall picture. And "All this new money pouring in..." you guys sound like the Litecoiners when Gox was supposedly going to add LTC to the exchange. Again, it was a short term bump and then leveled off.
3-b?) I don't know what these "sidechains" are, but anyone can read about the development going on in the BTC world if you just look.
4) ...

1) I agree with you that the userbase growth is not expanding exponentially right during correction, but it does on a yearly timescale.

2) News is relevant to BTC at this point. Not just the bad news like we've been seeing lately, but the news that pushes BTC in a positive direction as well, think Cyprus. I can't prove this, but I think it was more of the people who were already in Bitcoin saw a reason to rally. They bought on the rumor expecting others to do the same and it snowballed from there.

3) In reference to the analysis in OP's posted video, he just looks at patterns, never taking into account tech development or VC capital flowing into BTC. It will have consequences.

4) There are many people who think how much bitcoin is worth is based on their individual sentiment, rather than looking at the bigger picture and seeing what it actually is worth in the market. An example from March 2013:

I'm not quite so pessimistic as the OP. I do think the real value of Bitcoin is somewhere between $5 and $9.99.

lol Yep! At that time, it was worth between $5-9.99. Now it may be worth a little more, perhaps $25-50, or maybe $10-35... This is not my own sentiment. This is based on actual use and not the speculative demand.
As a side note; The mining difficulty is based on speculative demand too. I don't care what a miner thinks he deserves for a Bitcoin because he decided to start mining late. If the price hadn't risen (from speculative demand) then there wouldn't be so many miners pumping the difficulty up, and in turn, these prices would not be expected for a mined coin. It's a vicious cycle, but the fundamentals simply do not support this price. Get rich quick boys do.
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Very bearish Elliot Wave analysis
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 28/04/2014, 01:26:35 UTC
I find that lots of people doing TA in BTC often fails because of several things:

1) Failure to take into account exponential user adoption in an otherwise uncapitalized market.
2) Failure to take into account unforeseen news, for better or worse.
3) Failure to take into account foreseen news, such as new exchanges opening, and capital investment pouring in.
3) Failure to take into account unforeseen BTC development timelines, such as sidechains.
4) Ultimately not being able to see the forest for the trees.

The "rules" that Dan keeps bringing up doesn't work in the face of sudden developing news. Will we be talking about "corrections", "a, b, and c" when Second Market opens to the greater public? I think not. Will we be talking about "regression" and "downtrend" when sidechains crushes the altcoin market? No!

These guys doing TA in BTC assumes that they are still in a stock market when really, BTC is a stock, a currency, and an emerging technology that is the internet of money. The Elliott Wave analysis works only on a micro timescale, when it comes to macro timescale, these guys can't see the forest for trees!

Not seeing $5000 for 3-4 years? Sure, if we assume that the bitcoin technology stays the same, the userbase stays the same, and capital not pouring in. There will be no Second Market, no Winklevoss ETF, no US exchanges opening, no sidechain, and on and on.



1) It's only Exponential during rises. This doesn't mean the user base is not expanding, just that it isn't likely that it's exponential right now. Proof would be gladly accepted.
2) Irrelevant! The effect news will have is dependent on the way it is perceived. News is perceived differently in rises than declines.
3-a?) New exchanges are only a short term bump in the overall picture. And "All this new money pouring in..." you guys sound like the Litecoiners when Gox was supposedly going to add LTC to the exchange. Again, it was a short term bump and then leveled off.
3-b?) I don't know what these "sidechains" are, but anyone can read about the development going on in the BTC world if you just look.
4) ...
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Bear trap can clap anytime
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 24/04/2014, 21:42:00 UTC
All this hoopla from a $9.00 rise in price?  Shocked
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: So many newbie crying for gox liquidation
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 21/04/2014, 22:09:28 UTC

GREED GREED GREED

They dont care if others lose all they have, only because they want get cheap coins. Spreading FUD and panic. Sickening world...

They wouldn't lose all they have if it weren't for their own GREED GREED GREED. In many cases, the supposed "FUD" is justifiable due to real events. You holders just prolong the inevitable in these cases. It's the same for someone who is shorting in an uptrend... They will lose! Besides, Just HODL, it'll always go up, right?  Roll Eyes

You talk of greed, when you just want to ride the wave up on the backs of the new suckers.
While you're holding forever, someone is making all the money. Eventually, they will get out and never buy back, then all you holders will really be holding. Holding a bag full of internet tokens! They should buy you some good cheap toys, right? hmm, no! Sad
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Using candlesticks to determine Bitcoin direction
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 20/04/2014, 18:49:45 UTC
Quote
this has worked for me in forext markets, and am sure it can work with the bitcoin

Repeat after me:

Bitcoin is NOT a stock.
Bitcoin is NOT forex.

Here is what will happen:

1. Bitcoin will get to $700
2. You will sell
3. Bitcoin will go to da moon ($2500-$5000)
4. You miss it because you sold at $700

Buy and HODL.

Don't say we didn't warn you.

You are an idiot! you pussy whipped piece of... couldn't you come up with your own name? I bet you took your wife's name in marriage so now mail comes to your house addressed to Mr. & Mrs. BitCh ick.  Tongue
Enough with the personal insults
Do you realize how much more money you and your broke ass wife (oops, last one, I promise) could have had if you would learn a little bit about some goddamn analysis? I say money because that's all it's really about in your eyes. It's ok, you can say it out loud. You'll sleep better when you get that off your chest. Wink

Your fundamentals didn't hold your floor at 9-8-7-6-5-400... So you hold it to the ground if it would have went there.

Do you consider Bitcoin a currency? Yes?
Then it is FOREX because it's the EXchange of one currency to another.

Regardless of the class, it is still the trading of a financial instrument which has psychological effects on you and everyone else in the market. That is why TA/EW works for Bitcoin just as well as it does for ANY other asset in the world. I can attest to this since I make good trades every day based on TA/EW. You can't say it's luck because luck is a little more random than that. I'm not perfect, but I definitely have a net profit larger than holding.
You think it doesn't work because YOU can't get it to work for you. You can't decipher what the technicals are telling you so you can't analyze it. And it's ok! But don't come her spouting off about something you obviously don't understand. Those that can, trade. Those that can't (have no business here?) hold. Since you're holding and not buying, get the fuck out of speculation. You already made your speculative move. You don't belong here! There are 20 other sub-fora for you peddle your Bitcoin beliefs.


You sell, bitcoin goes up
You buy, bitcoin goes down

Ergo: HODL!

For you perhaps. Tough luck!


So as far as we know this, just HOLD and start thinking about it when it's at least double. Why people panic so much about the price.. We all here to invest in what we believe.

Yet another one who acts like they are doing a service to/for Bitcoin when in fact, is just waiting for a payday.
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Bear , is this the "dump" you're screamming about?
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 05/04/2014, 04:06:30 UTC
No!

I mean it could be part of it, but you guys are always looking for an external cause for a correction that was both much needed and expected by those who aren't biased in one direction.

Give it up

This transaction is irrelevant as far as the massive volume in USD we've seen since December. This tx can be swallowed up in a day or two not to mention that you have no idea if those coins were even sold yet.  Roll Eyes
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Lemmings are doomed!
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 27/03/2014, 20:40:39 UTC

I bought 75 BTC @ ~6$ to buy my first set of video cards to mine.  I've been mining ever since and have withdrawn BTC in the 4 digit range from mining pools.  My cost of entry would send you into a jealous fit.  I actually provide a service to support the network and spend BTC in the BTC economy.  I'm not here looking for dumb or fresh money to line my own pockets with.  It's people like you that are the problem with the world; right up there with those on Wallstreet who think: Fuck em' I got mine!


I call BS!
There is no way you mined 1000+ BTC with $450 of GPU's starting in 2012 (I was there, and I know what it took to mine a coin). I see only two possible contradictions to my statement:
1) You spent nearly every BTC you mined (as the difficulty rose), on more GPU's to stay productive. In this scenario, you now have very few BTC and a LOT of dusty, wore out cards. Not the best approach.

-OR-

2) You got one of the first ~10 ASIC's off the line. In which case you would have been better off solo mining. We know this isn't the case since you aren't Mr. Gornick or that douche-bag gigaVPS.
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: April 8th
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 25/03/2014, 22:44:27 UTC
April 8, 2014 is when Micro$oft stops supporting Windows XP Operating System for good. Problem is many ATM machines and credit card processors run on Windows XP. Thus, on or after April 8, 2014, these machines will fall out of PCI rules and regulations and will be illegal or out-of-conformance with the rules and regulations of the banking and credit industry. The writer of this article seems to think that because of this, bitcoin will go up in value.

There are not that many Windows XP ATMs to begin with, nobody ever used that OS for ATMs in this country and I am guessing it's not that common elsewhere either.

Those ATMs with Windows XP will just keep running as if nothing has happed and get upgraded over time. It is not like all Windows XP systems will stop working overnight just because Microsoft stops supporting it.

I do not see this having any effect on the price at all, it's non-news.

Read the article before posting, please!

"This includes ATM machines, which the organization estimates to be over 420,000 in the US alone and 95% of them are estimated to be running various versions of Windows XP underneath."

"April 8 is the last date Microsoft will publish the latest round of security fixes for Windows XP known in the IT departments as the monthly “Patch Tuesday”. "

Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Why do i keep hearing "btc mined out of thin air" ? thus the price must go down
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 22/03/2014, 04:06:41 UTC
Do the dumbfcks know how much it cost to mine btc?

If what they said is true, btc would never have any value and the price is 0 isnt it?

Here are some facts for those dumbfcks.

Buying a mining gear at current exchange rate, you will have very little chance of BREAK EVEN

Go check in mining section, price the current mining gear in BTC and calculate with conservative difficulty increasing rate and see for yourself.

If you're lucky and break even, your mining gear will use more in electricity than the cost of btc very soon after.

Remember all these didnt account the time and effort you have to spend to operate the mining operation.

What does this tell you? If you want to get some btc, the best way is to buy btc and spend your time doing something more profitable.

I'm just sick of the stupid "create btc out of thin air" argument.

Chao.


Sounds like a terrible business plan!
A mining rig should not pay itself off in weeks or even months. No business would ever expect to pay off the "tools of the trade" in such a short time frame. So why should Bitcoin mining be any different?

A perfect message to Winkelvii and Silbert. Miners should form a real guild and stop dumping all coins on the market.
I am not selling coins that I am mining.

Is that so yours can be worth more?
Mining with ASIC is pretty cheap as far as electricity is concerned. I don't care about the cost of the ASIC itself, you chose that path. The cost of production is very low, so BTC value (as far as the cost of production goes) is much lower than today.

FTR, I mined with GPU when the difficulty was <100k and the price was single digits, so mining was expensive back then (~$100/GH per month). It all works out in the wash as I'm sure it will for you too, but a mining guild? haha
Who gets to sell first?
Who stops someone else from selling before they're "allowed" to?
Who makes this order? and
Why should the last guy have to be last?
It sounds more like a pyramid scheme than Bitcoin to an outsider.
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: What'd happen if Satoshi dropped all his BTC into the market?
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 22/03/2014, 01:14:32 UTC
It would remove a huge amount of USD liquidity. Add to that the panickers, and lack of available fiat and you would be forced into a new price range. It would take time to get "back to normal". It would not be "to da moon" immediately after either
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Crash duration
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 20/03/2014, 04:42:29 UTC
The big difference between 2011 and 2013 is that the parabolic rise took 3 months now instead of 2 months in 2011. Hence why I think the correction will also take longer.

The rise was a lot more parabolic in 2011: that was a bigger bubble with greater volatility. When that bubble popped, the bearish trend became apparent fairly quickly and the price fell by about 92+% peak to trough. I don't see the same happening this time (unless Bitcoin fails altogether).

I don't get why it must be binary. Why can't there be a deep correction without complete failure?
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: will world war 3 mean bitcoin goes to the moon?
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 19/03/2014, 11:25:52 UTC
Bitcoin doesn't work without the power grid, but it would be even more scarce when computers are wiped from EMP's! TODAMOON   Roll Eyes
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Bitcoin Speculators Club
by
Bitcoin BEAR
on 17/03/2014, 01:35:44 UTC
Start to speculate about QoinGrow.com

My opinion is that you should sign up as you read this, it's currently just at investment level 3, and will go on for atleast 10 more levels before it will be difficult to get that many investors to level up the investment level, I think.

Raise your level by sending Bitcoins to your personal deposit address and making a deposit check at the same time. Wait for the Investment Level to level up, you will then receive Bitcoins that you can choose to withdraw, or reinvest to raise your level. It's recommended to reinvest some of it and withdraw the rest, most recommended is to split 50/50.

Seems legit!  Roll Eyes