I think
A2 and
A3 are the most likely and
B4 is near impossible.
To compensate for the lost revenue caused by a ~6 month delay BFL is offering those who ordered in the first two month a 10% or 25% discount voucher
*on a future purchase *to be made in the next 45 days. https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/1037-discount-voucher-policy.htmlHow ridiculous ?* Building chips has a high upfront cost, the remaining chips are much cheaper.
Fact.
* Future chips will be much more efficient and cheaper to produce.
Fact.
* Strong competition in the market will force BFL to reduce it's price.
Fact. (Not only avalon, There are many more in the race that we don't know about)
To reassure it's customers Josh has offered a guarantee while leaving himself some margin, this time it's not a guarante of ROI... :
... Given the volumes we've seen from Avalon and others so far, I can only guess that their costs are even more painful than ours on a per unit basis, so a price war seems pretty unlikely at this point. You aren't going to see $200 minirigs any time soon, I can guarantee you that.
What are the chances that someone who purchased their BFL miners with BTC at 6$ to 10$ will make a return on it's investment or maybe get 50% back over the next 5 years ?
Why is it that this "to become" profitable company is not willing to share it's future profit to thanks it's early investors ? (is there a future ?)
And what if, as per B3 scenario, we're not investors at all, we've at least provided them the money to purchase bitcoins who've since quintupled in price.
Why so selfish and greedy ?
Weve given our trust to BFL by ordering early and now that theyre being so late it would make sense to expect shares of the company as compensation.
Next step for them is to sell our BTC at 65$, refund VC and together purchase most of their own production ... diluting furthermore the value of our BFL purchases.
Order Information (Two single)
2,666.99 USD
(417.6699 BTC)
Order Number: 20**
417.6699 BTC paid
2012/06/**