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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 13/10/2015, 05:26:10 UTC
seem to recall, several years ago, an announcement by some exchange that they were implementing "shadow" book orders, that are invisible to most ordinary clients.  Perhaps they just started showing shadow-book trades on the ordinary ticker, to boost their public volume numbers...
That seems to be what's happening. But why would they want a lot of off book transactions? Don't they make money based on a percentage of the order cost? Why would they not want the price to rise as much as possible?

OKCoin and Huobi do not charge fees for trading, only for deposit and/or withdrawal, and interest on leveraged trading. As I recall, the shadow book was meant to cater for clients who wanted to trade on the exchange, but did not want their large orders to affect the price against them. (I may have misunderstood, and I don't know whether that makes sense.)

It's hard to see responses between all these ChartBuddys.

Thanks, I think they would be better for all if we could actually see the effects of the trades that are happening.

Right, so we are supposed to belive that while BFX volume has continued at an a consistent mostly anaemic pace for the last 2 months, OKC and Huobi have a bunch of 50k BTC orders that they suddenly decided to announce in their volume figures ...OK .... .... perfectly reasonable explanation.
Oh wait ...no announcement from an exchange that is being accused of faking numbers that they have a valid reason for suddenly higher numbers. OK ... that makes perfect sense

 Roll Eyes

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck ... most likely explanation is 'it's definitely not a duck'   Grin

Exchange volume is anaemic (excluding these wash trades) ... has been for months, and continues to be ...
Masterluc's 'Silent Phase' ...
Unfortunately this does not attract  more 'hot' money, so numbers are being fudged ... Occam's Razor

Although much of the volume on OKCoin and Houbi is trading from the left hand to the right, which clearly masks the underlying anemic trends, they control the public's mind-share in terms of overall price as a result of their gross volume figures. I think that whatever those large orders are: shadow book opened up or otherwise, are actually the seeds of a back-up plan being planted for the eventual halving. Let me explain.

Below a certain price level X, profitability of large scale mining operations begins to approach the break-even point - prices do not stay here very long short-term. Long term, the goal is (and has been) to keep the average well above price level X. When we half the rewards, we automatically half profits. Outside of a black swan event, prices need to be at least 2X in 13 some odd months for the whole game to continue being profitable for the miner. The Long-Con is keeping the music playing long enough for more retail traders to come in so that institutions finally have a profitable demographic to exploit.

Edit: Some people will skim this and think, oh man bitcoin will double in price in 13 months, I am less broke! You sir, are wrong, try again. Price level X is dynamic and depends on various factors, from mining technology, to electricity prices, to even global macro conditions. Price level X could shrink by a factor of 4 even while the 2X "halving price multiplier" remains constant.
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Re: Thailand and Bitcoin - Rising Power?
by
CoinDox
on 11/06/2015, 23:52:42 UTC
Thanks guys, I appreciate all of the insight and links. It does seem that use of BTC in Thailand is certainly gaining popularity.

My guess is that it has something to do with all of the new region specific business that allow the average user in Thailand the opportunity to easily buy sell RBT/BTC - aka ever since Q4 2014 - Q1 2015 three exchanges appeared, multiple atms, and mobile-phone BTC top-up (serviceshttps://bitcoin.co.th/topup/) on the scene.
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Topic OP
Thailand and Bitcoin - Rising Power?
by
CoinDox
on 09/06/2015, 21:17:45 UTC
Can anyone from the region describe what the environment right now in Thailand for users of Bitcoin? I know BTC was dubbed illegal in 2013, but has this really had an affect on its use?

I appreciate any insight, googling and prodding the interwebs did not yield much help  Undecided
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 10/02/2015, 23:21:18 UTC
Greece is a basket case. It's not all that complicated to understand if you have a solid grounding in economics and human nature. Tsipras and Varoufakis are lefties elected to erase the consequences of a country spending far more than they earned for a prolonged time period. They face an impossible task and they know it, so they are busy blaming others for their obvious impending failure to do what they promised to do. Breaking promises seems to be the Greek national pastime. No sane person would want to negotiate with these bad faith actors even if they weren't deluded socialists.

This is essentially correct. Greece has had a negative trade balance for a very long time now, with no improvements on the horizon.

Greece will get kicked out of the EU. The EU is going to crumble because Greece is far from the only country in such economic dire straits. They are merely the first to default. These sovereign defaults will either take down many large European banks or usher in an era of massive currency devaluation. As nation after nation in the EU goes back to their own national currencies, Germany will find itself in a position of having nobody to sell it's goods to that has any money. Capital will flow in torrents into safe places, first Switzerland and England but later and in greater volume the USA.

This is completely wrong and demonstrates a clear lack of understanding of both European politics and European economics. Our institutions are complex and never straightforward. Even most Europeans don't understand them. You would do well to learn more about them before saying rediculous things like that.

Nevertheless: Greece will not be kicked out of the European Union. They will not leave the Eurozone or be kicked out of it. Leaving either the Eurozone or the Union would not absolve their debts. There will be more negotiations. A settlement will eventually be reached. The EU will continue to heavily subsidize Greece, which Greece is dependent on to survive. Their economy will take a turn for the worse but they'll still be better off than in any other situation.

As a whole, the EU is still running a trade surplus and is as such doing okay. Despite what you believe, Germany amounts to only 20% of the EU's economy and does not dominate European policy. This percentage is actually shrinking as eastern Europe developes. There is no massive currency devalutation nor is there one in the making. There isn't a single serious effort to reinstute national currencies, as not a single country would stand to benefit from it.

There is a whole lot of exaggeration when it comes to European economic and political instability (which is mostly just perception), and it seems you've fallen prey to it.

I can't stress enough how much I appreciate people like Vincent here. A clear and concise counter, based in economic realities, not economic "principles," to what global media / billyjoeallen has spun as the truth.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 31/01/2015, 22:45:11 UTC
Google adds crypto, and the price goes down  Huh



Price of BTC the currency is not relevant to the utility value of BTC the technology. Google adding crypto speaks to the latter not the former.

Utility doesn't pay the utility company.

They are not mutually exclusive.

Price is everything.

I did not mean to imply that the value of BTC the currency is irrelevant to the network as a whole. Miner's (utility companies if you will) depend on it yes. I was simply saying that the two can't be melded into one in a causation type of relationship.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 31/01/2015, 22:30:56 UTC
Google adds crypto, and the price goes down  Huh



Price of BTC the currency is not relevant to the utility value of BTC the technology. Google adding crypto speaks to the latter not the former.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 31/01/2015, 21:49:20 UTC
Oh boy did that pump ended badly. Cut your goose, we are going down to the dark dephs of 1xx range. The search for the holy bottom continues.

Every pump since the high's has been engineered to build up retail bids in order for people highly capitalized in BTC to exit... Just look at what you all said just minutes ago regarding what to do if you had a substantial stockpile of BTC.

The problem, is when you want to exit something, and doing so crashes the prices to the point at which your stash becomes nearly useless, a slow exit on pumps is the only way out...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 31/01/2015, 21:42:43 UTC
Look at the bears go

1-2% decline in price and they start gigglin like a schoolgirl
It's cute Cheesy

True.

Haha.

It is not necessarily the percentage decrease, it is the positioning of the market players that has bears salivating. If/when wall-street is coming in, it sure as is not coming in at these levels. I would say they are looking for desperation before making a move to the upside. At least that is what they have done time and time again in futures/equities/capital markets...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 31/01/2015, 21:32:29 UTC
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 31/01/2015, 21:31:07 UTC
I have a question for you guys:

You own 5k bit-coins. What do you do? Serious question.

Sell all of it immediatly, and maybe buy back lower. I definately wouldn't keep them at that phase. Then again, I would've exited a long time ago already, around the 500 dollar mark.

All good answers, I hope the community can take a hint from these replies.

Other acceptable answers include: 1) Start a incubator and offer to exchange golden tokens for real human capital or 2) Leverage 200X and splash in the kiddy pool to your hearts content
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 31/01/2015, 20:36:49 UTC
I have a question for you guys:

You own 5k bit-coins. What do you do? Serious question.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 29/01/2015, 23:14:24 UTC
It would be nice to see it rocket up again - some of my mates lost lots of money in BTC. I myself managed to pull pretty substantial profit from it, but I joined the choo train a bit late. TA is just TA in the end - manage risk/ride the wave of volatility. There is serious manipulation going on, I am very curious to see where this will be in 6 months or so. Double digits are probably out of question, but I wouldnt be suprised if it "stabilized" in 1XX which will eradicate weak hands. Perhaps, just like all great ideas ,eg. communism in its purest form, BTC will slowly dwindle away and never reach its full potential.. not to mention be used for what it was intended to be used for...

This is one of the more sensible newbie posts I have read yet. Kudos!
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 04/11/2014, 19:42:01 UTC
Too much serious business here lately, why can't we just party like it's out of sight? Houbi knows what's up: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoCgOVSVWJI
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 12/10/2014, 20:20:07 UTC
Wall moved to 370. Looks great but i'm afraid it's the same guy who will be dumping shitloads later.

But later at a higher price  Wink , for now skip to step #3 - Profit.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 29/09/2014, 06:51:01 UTC
I am buying 5btc for every 10$ drop, lets see if I get broke! Tongue

 Cry
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 18/09/2014, 19:44:34 UTC
now i thinking about suicide! (no joke) Undecided


What you should do before you commit suicide is take huge fucking loans from the bank, go heavy on the leverage and wait 1 year and see if you're rich. If not, you can contionue to your first step

edit: lol@above post

Kenji, if you are seriously suicidal, as a result of your "investing" activities, do not fucken listen to Podyx...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 25/08/2014, 20:42:43 UTC
movement incomming

Wow... solid contribution.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 07/07/2014, 02:56:14 UTC
Here's the trade, for future reference:


so almost 133 BTC sold for $9798.99 each??


how is this not bigger news....


some eccentric whale testing the waters?  a drunk day trader?  time travelers from 2015? Wink

Bitcoinwisdom consolidates buys and shows the highest buy price. So even if out of the entire order only 0.0001 btc gets bought for $1 it would look like 133 btc got bought at $10k.

Ok, I understand the part about consolidating the bids. But under what real scenario would there ever a mBTC trade that goes for 1$?
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 04/07/2014, 19:35:56 UTC
I love you all (well most of you), but the quality of this thread... has... well... you know...

And before you say to yourself: "Then why are you here!?" To that I say, same reason you are, I am a glutton for punishment.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
CoinDox
on 23/06/2014, 03:56:35 UTC
So any idea why China is dumping hard? I find it hard to believe this happened without a reason.

My sources are saying that the ceos of all the major exchanges have been arrested.

Hah, all of them eh?