Dear all
I read quite some speculations here on why the MtGox rate is behaving the way it is. I am still puzzled and would appreciate clarification. Lets assume the following, please correct me where I am wrong:
1) No noticable amounts of fiat are coming out of gox (except for maybe Japanese Yen, which for most of us is meaningless) and even if there would be money coming out, at the current rate it doesnt make sense to sell BTC and cash out.
2) No BTC are coming out but there are promises of this happening very soon. These promises are thought to be far more likely than promises of fiat withdrawals working.
Both 1) and 2) should lead to BTC/USD rates shooting up (not down!). A similar reasoning was making sense in the past ((almost)no fiat getting out of gox) which is why the rate at MtGox was always quite a bit higher than at other exchanges. Now with the recent development this rate should have *increased* and not decreased even modestly. So why is this happening?
Looking for answers I would like to rule out that
a) MtGox is trying to rip everybody off in the most obvious way - there were still reports of Mark going to his office a few days ago, if he just wanted to run away with our money he could have done that long ago and have a happy rest of his life in some Cuban village.
b) People that trade noticeable amounts of BTC (and thus have a noticable influence on the market) are plain stupid and acting in panic without thinking what is happening.
...I just dont see the logic behind this but still I dont believe in conspiracy theories or stupidity alone...
Cheers,
Holle