Alright fair enough. Here's what I think, now it's easy to think about the glory days when Bitcoin was trading at 0.0000001 and you could mine them at 300 per hour intervals. Has the hashing algorithm changed? Not really. So there's some value there well because it's withstood the testament of time. Does that make it an invincible currency? Not really. Plenty of exchanges were hacked, wallets get lost and there's no way to recover them, there's millions of coins I would say > 3,000,000 that are gone. So with a fixed supply of 21,000,000 we're down to about 18,000,000 give or take in fluctuation. One of those asks was my 17-year old son, who like many in his cohort is smitten by Robinhood trading apps and easy money. Since the Bitcoin question is one that can trigger a strong reaction, I decided to write a concise viewpoint instead of talking the issue. First, let me suggest the easy and true answer: any “investment” that you buy low and sell high makes you the smartest guy in the room. And if you use that sell-high to buy a yacht, or a vacation home, or an 85” color TV – well those windfalls are as real as a heart attack.
For those of you on the way in, rather than the way out, it makes sense to develop an opinion on exactly what you are investing in, in order to make a decision. Most people think of Bitcoin like money. It’s often described as an alternate currency. It even has a handle for money in the name. To develop a sound stance on Bitcoin, it’s worthwhile to have a sound stance on money: what is it? Can’t decide if Bitcoin is money if we don’t know what money is.
Because paper money is so useful, it’s easy to forget how inherently worthless it is. Intrinsically, it’s worth as much as a scrap of paper. You can’t eat it, wear it, or use it to stay warm (ok, you know what I mean). Paper money issued by the US government until the early 70’s was backed by gold. So paper money had collateral. It could be exchanged for a fixed amount of gold. Gold is a real asset: it is scarce and it has value: people covet it for jewelry and its various industrial uses. The most argumentative would say that in the context of a true apocalypse that gold is not valuable either: you can’t eat it, wear it, or use it to stay warm… and I agree with that: gold is a real asset that can serve as collateral for worthless paper money in ordinary times.
A finer point on how intrinsically worthless paper money is: some people like to hide cash in their mattress because they “don’t trust banks”. Paper money may be worthless, but at least it’s tangible. Once you put it in a bank, it becomes just the 1’s and 0’s in software and printed on your monthly statement that may or may not be backed by sufficient assets or collateral at the bank. There is no drawer at the bank with your name on it full of your cash. That said, our government, who sponsors the currency, has a network of organs and regulations it uses to ensure the banking system does not collapse. If it were ever the case that our government could not sustain the banks, those greenbacks under your mattress would be just as worthless as your bank statement. Wipe your ass with them. Without banks, paper money is meaningless. So if you’re worried enough to hoard cash, I’d bury gold instead.
To answer the question “What is money?”, you have to consider what happened to the US dollar when the government decided to abandon the gold standard in the early 70’s. Up until that time, paper money was just a convenient way for exchanging gold in economic transactions without having to carry it around. In 1971 the government said it would no longer exchange gold for paper money at a fixed rate. What happened? There were a couple of bouts of high inflation, but fundamentally the dollar has held up pretty well. One reason has been sound and improving capabilities to manage the supply of money on the part of our Federal Reserve.
By now you should be asking why the worth of worthless paper money did not collapse when the real asset (gold) was taken away. I have an answer for you. Paper money still has an asset behind it. Paper money (and its bank-statement equivalents) are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. SO what? Why does this make it valuable? This is an essential point: Money is valuable because people believe that our government, the issuer, has the power to tax the productive output of it’s citizens. That’s it. I can’t eat dollar bills, but there are farmers out there. Those farmers make a tremendous amount of food. And our government has the credible ability to take a portion of that output. And THAT is the collateral for the US dollar today. THAT is the asset that makes money valuable. The US economy.
Currencies that are not backed by tangible assets are called fiat currencies: The dollar has value because the government says it has value, and we believe the government because we believe in the government’s power to tax. Instead of a trove of gold in a vault at Fort Knox, the government has the right to a slice of the ongoing and future output of the world’s most valuable workforce.
And that brings us back to bitcoin. Is it money? Well let’s start with this question: is it a currency, a medium of exchange? The answer today is “no”. A good medium of exchange has to be easy to transact and fairly stable value. Bitcoin has been neither. Transactions are fairly slow and expensive because they have to be written into a distributed universal ledger that is the same everywhere. It takes a fair amount of electricity, computing power, and time just to record a transaction. That’s why it isn’t great for small transactions. In terms of stability – well we know that Bitcoin’s price in US dollars has been $10,000 and $2,000 and $50,000 all within the past few years. So it doesn’t have stable value either. It’s not a great currency. Is it an asset like gold? Well it’s scarce. The software that created it set a for-ever limit on the number of coins that could exist. The issue is that, unlike gold, it has no intrinsic value. You can’t use it to make jewelry, or for industry. You can’t even touch it. And then again, is it really scarce? Kind of. Whoever wrote it’s software (and that remains a mystery), programmed scarcity. But anyone could write a new coin software for a new coin and “make more”. This software, which is generally called “blockchain” is practically open source now. In fact people have made many knockoffs of Bitcoin using blockchain.
Now I can hear Bitcoin fans saying “But the issue is that Bitcoin is widely adopted and accepted. Nobody will trade Bitcoins for Dogecoins on an equal basis.” And that’s a key point. Bitcoin has value because everybody believes it has value. This is a characteristic of all asset inflations whether it be Dutch Tulips, or GameStop shares, or real estate that keeps going up and up: a large group of buyers who agree that the value is high and increasing, even when there may be available facts to the contrary. To make matters worse, for Bitcoin, there is no asset, not even a tulip. The only guess at “something valuable” is an artificial scarcity derived from its software. No fiat. No credible threat to tax and take productive output. We may agree that for the US government, the fiat currency and the power of taxation is not as good as gold; however, when comparing to Bitcoin, it’s better "nothing".
That takes us to all the incredibly smart people who love Bitcoin. Elon Musk. Marc Andreesen. I know why they like Bitcoin. Two reasons: it is incredibly easy to establish a trading system built on blockchain, and such systems incredibly robust. No paperwork, lawyers, government filings, bureaucracy. Just easy software. And it’s essentially immune from interference, especially government interference. To be fair to those with a libertarian bent, our government in the US is outrageously abusive of the power conferred by the fact that the US dollar is a global reserve currency. We use the banking system as a weapon, a judge, and a jury. Ambitious federal prosecutors engage in narcissistic pursuits and vexatious prosecutions using the dollar as a bully and a bludgeon. Our congress makes laws and regulations that shut actors out of the system with no due process.
My son asks me, “Should I invest in Bitcoin?” Proponents of Bitcoin say “Absolutely, invest. It’s a new kind of money.” To which I say, most novices invest with money, not in money. In fact, while I’ve taken great pains to assert real fiat currency has an underlying asset (the US economy) most wealthy keep most of their wealth invested in instruments backed by tangible assets: real estate, commodities, company shares. The richest don’t even invest primarily in real money. Investing in an aspirational money-like instrument that has some technical characteristics of money but lacks its key feature is a game for only the truly smitten.
There’s also a really valuable software in there that banks will one day use to process transactions of certain types, and has tremendous value for transactions that are high value and low frequency (provenience of art , for example). But with Bitcoin, unfortunately there is no tangible asset for collateral, beside that freely available software called blockchain.
So the appeal and pursuit of the Bitcoin ambition is very easy to understand. Many of us would like to see it democratize money. It’s evident that today Bitcoin is not a good currency. It should be evident to most that it is not an asset, will never be an asset in its current formulation, and isn’t backed by an asset. Unless the proponents of Bitcoin plan to go conquer a wealthy nation and then tax its output, it’s not money.