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Showing 20 of 20 results by Livermore
Re: Is this Forum full of 'normal people' who over the years became filthy rich?
It is not a good idea to let people know your newfound wealth. Most of the forum members since 2012 are multimillionaires now. I know a few worth 8 figures. Nobody talks about it, except to each other. People can get unpleasant around money
Interesting note, everyone who cared only about the technology bought early and got rich, everyone who cared only about getting rich bought the top and got poor.
Interesting note, everyone who cared only about the technology bought early and got rich, everyone who cared only about getting rich bought the top and got poor.
On the russian forums, masterluc is saying this could be wave 3 of (i) 3?
Or just part of the supercycle wave 3. Google translate is hard to understand.
Long term he is predicting $9500, from extrapolation of previous bubbles, and is saying this move will go far.
Seems very clearly bullish
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/fvhCAiH9-EW-development/
OR. We are in wave 5 of a new pace of trend. Might be 1600 for top.
Or just part of the supercycle wave 3. Google translate is hard to understand.
Long term he is predicting $9500, from extrapolation of previous bubbles, and is saying this move will go far.
Seems very clearly bullish
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/fvhCAiH9-EW-development/
OR. We are in wave 5 of a new pace of trend. Might be 1600 for top.
^^ huh 
Not sure what you're drawing there but the circles both encompass halving dates so it has that going for it .... and the sequence of drivers for next run sounds feasible but the length of sideways before that is anyone's guess ... until noone can bear it any longer usually but awesome time to accumulate.
Not sure what you're drawing there but the circles both encompass halving dates so it has that going for it .... and the sequence of drivers for next run sounds feasible but the length of sideways before that is anyone's guess ... until noone can bear it any longer usually but awesome time to accumulate.
Yes. No matter how long these consolidations take they always end up breaking upwards. I am drawing yellow = yellow pattern, blue = blue pattern. Same patterns, played in reverse. Seems likely, since masterluc says we are almost in historical III up, and those patterns played in 2012 preceeded major wave III up in 2013.
Most important is to remember, 2014Jan-2015Apr was the bear market. We are in a bull market now, it is key to stay bull in a bull market.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9nx1RqIj/
Seems like 2012, but the two patterns in reverse order.
So while we are all predicting Ping Pong or crash or moon, perhaps the market will just flat for 3 months, then slowly rise. Rise into wave 3, rise into all time high, rise into fomo, rise into greed, rise into bubble.
Seems like 2012, but the two patterns in reverse order.
So while we are all predicting Ping Pong or crash or moon, perhaps the market will just flat for 3 months, then slowly rise. Rise into wave 3, rise into all time high, rise into fomo, rise into greed, rise into bubble.
The impulse had many primary wave extensions which is why it seems it has bottomed on just one sharp fell swoop. Having gone too far none the less I think the bottom very probably in.
We know theres a bottom here because of the triangle. We know abc's retrace at least 62% as a strong guideline. Not to mention that the abc could have been a wave ii of sorts.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/97PXe0Td
We know theres a bottom here because of the triangle. We know abc's retrace at least 62% as a strong guideline. Not to mention that the abc could have been a wave ii of sorts.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/97PXe0Td
Might actually play masterluc's Ping Pong game, which leads to another large triangle forming. 400-800-470-710-510-TriangleEnd
The bearish picture remains the same with target 450 through a bear flag and enormous support at 420. Daily bands coiling, bold move expected soon.
I even don't beleive ))
https://new.tradingview.com/x/Fs9Am8yz/
I even don't beleive ))
https://new.tradingview.com/x/Fs9Am8yz/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YDBpslik-Short-term-Bitcoin-Short-due-to-cumulative-volume-exhaustion/
I made some similar prediction but based on cumulative volume and OKcoin quarterly futures premium.
Even at the blood of the $540 initial crash the futures premium remained heavy overbought.
That leads to conclusion that bearish scenario is very likely, 480-450 target, and as Luc says, 420 is enormous support. So there is my planned entry.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Target 330, extensions to 290 and 270 in the coming month.
I figured it out. The Canadian dollar is the world's 6th largest reserve currency.
The total money supply M3 in September was 2032737 CAD Million. (2+ Trillion)
Total bitcoins mined = 14.842700 Million
2032737/14.842700=136951.9696551167
1 Bitcoin = $137 Billion Dollars. Give or take.
Keep some change in cold storage and your retirement is set.
The total money supply M3 in September was 2032737 CAD Million. (2+ Trillion)
Total bitcoins mined = 14.842700 Million
2032737/14.842700=136951.9696551167
1 Bitcoin = $137 Billion Dollars. Give or take.
Keep some change in cold storage and your retirement is set.
You divided million by million. 1 BTC = 137K
Can you explain the whole overbought calculations? I'm still new to trading, so I'm learning.
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?
Does the overbought situation account for the downwards selling pressure for over a year?
Overbought conditions usually detected using oscillators. The most known oscillator is Relative Strength Index (RSI). It is overbought >70 and oversold <30.
Daily RSI is at 2 years high, almost at 2013 bubble value.
Next one is Slow Stohastic (SS). Same as RSI (70/30).
Next ADX. Overbought or oversold >40 depending on what greater +Dl or -Dl.
All of those are close to 2013 top values.
The question now is if BTC is going to continue to range at a price 70% below the all time high 2 years ago, or if the bear market is finally over, 2 years of coiled spring price compression is going to explode, and we are entering a new trend.
If new trend, need to switch to trend/momentum indicators. Because Oscillators, as we saw in 2011 and 2013, can stay MaxOverbought for months and are not useful in that case.
"Wyckoff discovered during this observation period was that when the market began to flatten out after a long decline this would usually lead to an
upward trend for the market." - How Legendary Traders Made Millions
peak of that bull run should take us to around $40,000.
Considering we are under 200day EMA ($310), which means we are still officially in a bear market, it is 5 stages too early to be calling peaks of next bubble, if that even happens.
@ Livermore:
$40,000 for the next macro-movement
ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.
$40,000 for the next macro-movement
ludicrous $1,200,000 per coin.
No. This thread is for fractal analysis not for get-rich-quick dreams.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/6S9Si6F7-BTCUSD-STILL-REMAINS-IN-OVERALL-BEARISH-CYCLE-UPDATE/
DanV's Elliot Waves support scen B: Final bottom at $90
So far scen B seems most likely. 1. Indicators are on point. 2. Fractals are on point. 3. It is least popular voted in the poll.
If we break under 210, Scen A is ruled out and we face the mother of all capitulations
DanV's Elliot Waves support scen B: Final bottom at $90
So far scen B seems most likely. 1. Indicators are on point. 2. Fractals are on point. 3. It is least popular voted in the poll.
If we break under 210, Scen A is ruled out and we face the mother of all capitulations
http://i.imgur.com/8RkX8g7.png
New analysis, this time monthly chart with the 2000's Yahoo bubble. In this view the entire move of BTC from $5 to $1200 was one massive bubble in three parts, not three bubbles.
This fractal supports Scen B: Bottom at $90.
AO supports B and C.
Fisher supports B and C.
Aroon supports B.
Very bullish if price breaks above $330, the 10month (30 week, 200day) EMA, scenario B and C become very unlikely. Otherwise its current destiny is down down down to $90 for a capitulation bottom. We shall see.
My suggestion: Current portfolio 70%BTC 30%Fiat. If price breaks under 210, all out and rebuy at $90 (Scen B playing with possible Scen C continuation). If price breaks above $330, all in (Scen A playing).
http://i.imgur.com/8RkX8g7.png
New analysis, this time monthly chart with the 2000's Yahoo bubble. In this view the entire move of BTC from $5 to $1200 was one massive bubble in three parts, not three bubbles.
This fractal supports Scen B: Bottom at $90.
AO supports B and C.
Fisher supports B and C.
Aroon supports B.
Very bullish if price breaks above $330, the 10month (30 week, 200day) EMA, scenario B and C become very unlikely. Otherwise its current destiny is down down down to $90 for a capitulation bottom. We shall see.
My suggestion: Current portfolio 70%BTC 30%Fiat. If price breaks under 210, all out and rebuy at $90 (Scen B playing with possible Scen C continuation). If price breaks above $330, all in (Scen A playing).
http://i.imgur.com/8RkX8g7.png
Re: [Analysis Fractal] using 200day EMA. impressive charts! lines!!! indicators!!!!!
Hey maths genius, care to show how this technique worked at predicting the future when backtested on the previous bubbles?
Speculative fractal patterns are highly up to the arbitrary interpretation of the chart-holder. I attempt to chart possible scenarios matching up past patterns of tops, crashes, and intersections with major indicators (200day EMA for example) and rule out scenarios as market disproves them over time, narrowing the possibilities to just a few, or even just 1.
This is not the sole basis of my trading, I use other indicators too.
------
Here is one of my works from 2013. Due to a variety of analysis, that chart included, I did end up going all in at $75 ish on the big capitulation of June 2013. Lovely right?
:Charts:
I took the 2011 bubble chart, overlayed it on the current chart to match the top, bottom, sucker's rally and resistance levels, and appended the extra portion to the current graph. Very simple TA but it has made me extravagant amounts of money so far.
In one month we shall compare the actual chart to this chart, and they might be very similar.
"But this time it's different!"
Thoughts?
http://i.imgur.com/gtyiKji.png
I took the 2011 bubble chart, overlayed it on the current chart to match the top, bottom, sucker's rally and resistance levels, and appended the extra portion to the current graph. Very simple TA but it has made me extravagant amounts of money so far.
In one month we shall compare the actual chart to this chart, and they might be very similar.
"But this time it's different!"
Thoughts?
http://i.imgur.com/gtyiKji.png
Of course there remains the possibility of a similar situation to August 2012. This situation would take BTC on a rally to 180 and then a flatline.
However, note that this activity occured when the price of BTC was close to the all-time logarithmic trend line.
Also, November was the block reward halving event. Thus this rally was further fueled by the halving of the BTC supply.
Given the current high price of BTC relative to changes in infrastructure, as well as the deviation from the logarithmic trendline and lack of block halving, this possibility remains very unlikely.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zig6-hourzczsg2012-05-19zeg2012-12-12ztgSzm1g40zm2g25zl
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=6-hour&c=1&s=2012-05-19&e=2012-12-12&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=40&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&
However, note that this activity occured when the price of BTC was close to the all-time logarithmic trend line.
Also, November was the block reward halving event. Thus this rally was further fueled by the halving of the BTC supply.
Given the current high price of BTC relative to changes in infrastructure, as well as the deviation from the logarithmic trendline and lack of block halving, this possibility remains very unlikely.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360zig6-hourzczsg2012-05-19zeg2012-12-12ztgSzm1g40zm2g25zl
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=6-hour&c=1&s=2012-05-19&e=2012-12-12&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=40&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&
http://i.imgur.com/jBdgjHn.png
I don't see any bearish signs yet. 200day EMA (white) still rising and price is above it. It has served as big big support 5 times.
However I do agree with your DXY bearish. Time for correction.
Re: [Analysis Fractal] using 200day EMA. impressive charts! lines!!! indicators!!!!!
it's all about if "the majority" think that we have already a good price to buy or not
I only posted fractals and indicators because they are objective. Emotion is interpretation, is arbitrary. hard to measure.
But still important.
http://i.imgur.com/EJp8fmh.jpg - link to big chart.
Hello, Fractal Analysis using overlay of $32 and $1200 bubbles. Just idle musings, definitely don't trade solely on this analysis. Currently Scenario A is strongest due to lack of major 200EMA conflicts. Comparison A is zoomed in too much, chart is much more aesthetically convincing zoomed out a bit.
Note the similarities in indicator fluctuations for the scen, especially major points around elliot waves 2, 4, A, B, C. Also indicators not shown here include StochRSI, EMA crossovers in 7/21 and 9/30, daily and weekly. These indicators support A the most, but B and C are also valid to slightly lesser extent.
Cumulative volume indicators, such as volume OBV, money flow and Accumulation/Distribution lines, are not reliable here - exchanges fluctuate in popularity.
ADX and such, are inconclusive thus far.
Crashes bouncing off near-exact 200EMA are very significant.
Fibonacci levels useless.
Bollinger Bands inconclusive because of how arbitrary the paramaters are and how sensitive the bands can be to parameters.
Parabolic SAR supports Scen A with varying paramaters - its mathematical basis is similar to that of 200EMA after all.
qualifications: I am math genius and successful trader thus far, %, $, and max-drawdown-proportion wise.
A implies 150 was the bottom, we are flat then slow up from here.
B implies 1 more drop, perhaps a double bottom. Bottom at $90.
C implies 2 more drops, one bottom near $90, another at $50. The $50 would be Extremely Significant. All the stars and planets align.
Vote which scen you foresee you bunch of homo sapiens
http://i.imgur.com/EJp8fmh.jpg
Hello, Fractal Analysis using overlay of $32 and $1200 bubbles. Just idle musings, definitely don't trade solely on this analysis. Currently Scenario A is strongest due to lack of major 200EMA conflicts. Comparison A is zoomed in too much, chart is much more aesthetically convincing zoomed out a bit.
Note the similarities in indicator fluctuations for the scen, especially major points around elliot waves 2, 4, A, B, C. Also indicators not shown here include StochRSI, EMA crossovers in 7/21 and 9/30, daily and weekly. These indicators support A the most, but B and C are also valid to slightly lesser extent.
Cumulative volume indicators, such as volume OBV, money flow and Accumulation/Distribution lines, are not reliable here - exchanges fluctuate in popularity.
ADX and such, are inconclusive thus far.
Crashes bouncing off near-exact 200EMA are very significant.
Fibonacci levels useless.
Bollinger Bands inconclusive because of how arbitrary the paramaters are and how sensitive the bands can be to parameters.
Parabolic SAR supports Scen A with varying paramaters - its mathematical basis is similar to that of 200EMA after all.
qualifications: I am math genius and successful trader thus far, %, $, and max-drawdown-proportion wise.
A implies 150 was the bottom, we are flat then slow up from here.
B implies 1 more drop, perhaps a double bottom. Bottom at $90.
C implies 2 more drops, one bottom near $90, another at $50. The $50 would be Extremely Significant. All the stars and planets align.
Vote which scen you foresee you bunch of homo sapiens
http://i.imgur.com/EJp8fmh.jpg