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Showing 6 of 6 results by Michiko
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Topic
Board Project Development
Re: We need a predictions market for bitcoin
by
Michiko
on 28/06/2011, 11:25:53 UTC
It's not exactly on-topic for this thread, but just for reference I'm working on a full featured futures contracts trading system (intraday, marginal trading, market making, interface for algorithmic traders). If there is such a demand, prediction market could be supported as well, however I specialize only in serious financial stuff and derivatives markets.

I will make more posts about this later, with a more thorough description. If there are any suggestions/etc - please feel free to discuss.

Would you mind giving an update on your project? I must have missed the later post you're mentioning above. It might be interesting both for you and your future clients if you could sketch how you would handle core issues of Futures, settling, margining, matching? I'm sure many of us have pet hates about existing exchanges and how they deal with their users. Taking early feedback on board might prevent repeating mistakes certain exchanges or market data providers keep making over and over again.? I'd appreciate any information you can share, maybe an early prototype for testing the idea?
Post
Topic
Board Beginners & Help
Re: Isn't the transaction delay very unpractical for over-the-counter sales?
by
Michiko
on 25/06/2011, 09:21:29 UTC
0/conf will work for retail transactions.  I bet the rate of people using a double-spend technique to screw people out of money would be roughly equivalent to the rate of people using counterfeit bills for a cash transaction.  And whoever the retailer is can use security cameras or other techniques to track the perp down and prosecute them.

Plus, with online wallets like MyBitCoin, if you trust them and their API, you can have 'instant' transfers and all payments can be forwarded to a different address so I think the practicality of instant payments can be solved via the market even though there is the problem built into the BitCoin software. Heck, banks do not settle for over 24 hours with leads to Herstatt risk (after the German bank regarding settlement risk issues and time zones).

I can imagine markets where instantaneous confirmation would be absolutely crucial. Less critical when you can delay shipping something physical via mail, or offering the client who just bought that mega flat screen TV a coffee and a seat. But how about prediction markets or betting exchanges settled in BTC? Here the counterparty wants to know immediately if the deal will go through, otherwise the price might have changed once they realise they need a new match on the exchange for their deal.

I don't understand how that proxy-bitcoin concept would work in reality - either it is doing the same thing as Bitcoin and is slow, or I have to trust it (for small amounts) and then I could simply use small Bitcoin transfers?

Somehow banks delaying payments for 2-3 business days (for technical reasons, if you are one of the many dud banks with ancient systems, or because you just happen to like your free lunch:) should not be the benchmark for Bitcoin. Wasn't the key concept that it is a lot faster (as long as you need to be convinced by confirmations) and doesn't require specific trust in one specific, reputable 3rd party (like Mt Gox or Gavin), only the nodes?


Post
Topic
Board Beginners & Help
Re: Make it 100 posts to get out of here.
by
Michiko
on 25/06/2011, 09:02:33 UTC
Would it be hard to establish an alternative channel to prove I'm neither bot nor spammer? I'd really prefer to solve 10 captcha or similar and wait exactly a board prescribed random time (~30sec) in between providing input. A combination of a minimum waiting time and some proof of human, time-consuming work should deter posters the board doesn't want? Hopefully nobody will judge me by my 5 useless initial posts. All I wanted is to ask more question on a couple of interesting threads before thy die down...
Post
Topic
Board Beginners & Help
Re: What would you ideally like to be able to buy with bitcoins
by
Michiko
on 19/06/2011, 10:12:40 UTC
As for me, I'd love to be able to buy things tangible, so a nice steady bitcoins to dollars that was easily transferable, like forex.

I think it would already be a huge step forward to be able to use BTC for everything I now do with online transfers, starting from rent, utility bills, ISP/mobile phone provider, buying goods online etc. Basically everything where it is not that crucial for a payment to be confirmed within the hour. Either the service has been provided anyway already in good faith, or shipment can be hold until payment is confirmed.

 
Post
Topic
Board Beginners & Help
Re: The 1 thing we NEED to do in order to make Bitcoin more popular
by
Michiko
on 18/06/2011, 11:41:30 UTC
I was considering allowing BitCoin payments on my site, where I sell my own software.  I use VirtueMart and although there has been BitCoin payment integrated, it can't be used with other currencies so far.  If it was able to do that, then it isn't really possible to peg a simple BitCoin price in the same way you can with other currencies because of the massive price fluctuations at the moment.

I therefore think an API to a BitCoin exchange for currency conversion, together with integration with open source e-commerce solutions would take a lot of the (projected) hassle factor out.  I haven't looked into the bid/offer system in BitCoin but the pricing given to retailers through such a system would have to take into account potential market manipulation.

Ideally, as near instant as possible automated conversion to traditional currency would seal the deal.  Then, for retailers, there wouldn't be any disadvantage.

Just throwing that out there, whilst simultaneously attempting to reach 50 posts without too much chaff.

Somehow it appears to be hard to include some kind of retail instant-quote button for a price in BTC to existing operations. Someone selling software via a webstore, or a utility company billing residents shouldn't have to deal with monitoring rates and taking the hassle to pipe it through, isn't that what financial service provider are for? Then again, why would an existing large bank or payment servicer volunteering to cut off the branch that is earning the fees. I just think it's not beneficial if a normal seller has to worry about exchanges rates at different and changing BTC exchanges.


Btw, I think the bar for postings was lowered to 5 posts now, looks like you're good to go..
Post
Topic
Board Beginners & Help
Re: Argument that not increasing difficulty would make bitcoin "inflationary"??
by
Michiko
on 18/06/2011, 09:38:32 UTC
Quote
At this point people would stop generating them, because there is no-one to sell them to for profit

And this is a big problem. Blocks need to be generated for transactions to be able to be carried out. If there is no profit in generating blocks, no blocks get generated -> no transactions are possible.

Yes, this is an extreme case. But with the current design the network will always produce 1 block every ~10 minutes, guaranteeing a consistent speed of transactions.

And that's why miners then will be getting paid mostly in transaction instead fees I guess. To remain safe the network needs to keep enough parties interested in competing to do proof-of-work. Maybe the inventors envisioned that a large number of transactions per block in a mature network would generate sufficient pay-off even with low fees per single transaction.