He sure did....

From public blog June 2013.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/

Neil Woodford in the UK comes to mind. Had decades of success and was highly revered. His £1bn+ funds were constantly ranked as some of the best in the market for returns, where even gov pension funds had invested.

Then it started unravelling owing to high investment in illiquid assets as he tried chasing high returns from subdued safer assets. When those risky investments started unravelling, he was trapped and had to block anyone from exiting, save the entire fund collapsing.

This is was someone who had a gleaming investment record. So even the "best" can trip up eventually or may even just get lucky flipping heads year after year until their luck runs out...

MA may have just got lucky with a few forecasts, but if you look at RenTech or Two Sigma, they appear to have the very technology and processes that MA claims. Yet never has MA ever presented either his tech or his team - where even his WEC events girl isn't based in FL, so she must be a contractor - in any such way. He appears to have run a longstanding publishing firm, and when he was trading, he messed it all up much like Woodford.[/quote]
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Absolutely - I invested with Neil Woodford at Invesco, amongst other UK equity funds, and always knew of his fondness for unlisted/smaller cos. I chose not to invest in his new fund because his investment approach was changing and often when 'star manager' changes their set-up something goes wrong; a new variable is introduced. Anthony Bolton at Fidelity was a legend in UK equities and then launched a Chinese equity investment trust, and it went south horribly.

How does this relate to MA? My impression is that he too was very successful until the late 1990s but, as I understand from reading those links to Barlcay Lieb a little earlier in the thread, since MA got out of prison (no doubt a horrible experience) too much has changed (including MA) and the inconsistencies on his calls have put me off being a Socrates subscriber. Maybe MA's own cycle is over; we all have our moment in the sun.

Yes Rentech appears to be the real deal and of course if you have found a great system for consistent profits why would you sell it?? MA's story is that he is selling his system for the little guy (yet always criticising other analysts who sell things) and therefore getting one back on the bankers but the inconsistencies mean the little guy has no chance if experienced traders on this board are struggling and no-one yet has put up evidence of how to trade repeatably and successfully using Socrates. So my conclusion is that it isn't for me although I will continue to watch developments if ever a public fund using Socrates was launched and still read the blog for the long term macro calls.

Let's face it - Who wouldn't want to read the blog of an investment forecaster who has had a film made about him, who has seen a UFO, has seen evidence of a perpetual motion machine, and who built a self-aware computer that self-destructed in WTC 7 - the building that fell down of it own accord.

Best wishes from UK  

Kiwibird- great spot, thanks. They REALLY like Martin Armstrong. They say they use Socrates amongst other things but that is quite a bold statement for a financial advisor to make. Maybe they are the company that MA refers to when he says he wants to licence Socrates, but in any event a public relationship exists there currently.

Bikefront - yes I used to read Nick Nicolaas blog at Mining Interactive as he posts a lot about Socrates, and in fact says: "Outside of the people directly working directly with Martin Armstrong, I am probably the best person in the world interpreting his work." He even sells his notes at the WECs.

I am quite happy to take NN at his word (he says he used to get MA faxes in the 1990s), but he said in one of his own public blog snippets of WEC notes that he nearly fell off his chair when MA said in 2017 (I think) that Gold was not going below $1k per ounce when NN had been forecasting this constantly, no doubt based on his interpretation of MA.

So I concluded if this long time devotee of MA cannot fathom Socrates, a non-trader like me has no chance. I was interested in the basic investor service on the 2016 version but was out off by constant updates essentially saying it is not ready; it’s like buying a half built car. Steering might work but what if has no brakes….

I take Anonymous Coder’s point that financial firms might stay away from a licensed version of Socrates but those guys at Integrated Wealth Management have made me consider the point once more. If ANY mutual fund firm put out a Socrates fund that in itself would be an endorsement as it would have had to be scrutinised before the point of launch.

Would I put money into such a fund? Sure I would but I would not give it any more money than some of my other funds. And I might even wait until it has a three-year track record like all my other funds. I would not give money to any wealth firm using Socrates because there is no public track record like you have with mutual funds for peer comparison and risk/reward assessment. However even if such a fund were launched in the US it is unlikely to make its way to the UK so perhaps it is wishful thinking but I would follow it with interest.

Gumbi / Strike Eagle - thanks for your insights. As you both appear to be close to MA. Can you expand on the possibility of a licensed version of Socrates?

Thanks again to ALL posters on their experiences, insights and comments. MA is fascinating. Today’s post about the UFOs. Brilliant!

Hello everybody, greetings from UK.

I’ve lurked this board for some time but I have been LOVING this board for the last few weeks.

Thanks so much to all posters, particularly those sharing brave admissions, diligent research results, and WEC experiences.

I am NOT a trader and have no wish to be; it simply doesn’t interest me. I do invest, and I like to buy the dips, in unit trusts (mutual funds) that focus on UK and overseas equities with active management, although my US equity exposure is mostly via passive (index) funds.

I was put on to MA by a stockbroker friend around 2012/2013 and was very attracted to MA writings. I’ve always felt that with enough information you can determine pattern/s which you can use to your advantage. I was attracted enough to purchase metals reports in 2015.

My interest in MA has grown steadily and I echo all the points raised in on this board, including my own impression that the Reversals seem to stand up. My particular issue is that MA has talked about being there for the little guy but if seasoned traders like you guys are struggling, the little guy has no hope. When a little guy gets a post onto the blog, MA does not directly answer the question.

I think the new Socrates system has one tier too many, the earlier system (before the monthly subscription) had two levels and that seemed to work and I was interested in the basic investor service at $150 per year. I accept he cannot be giving out free info that people have paid for but let’s say a clear low in the Dow has taken place, why not say ‘this would appear to be a good buying point‘.  The pros/traders can trade such a low from the Reversals, the investors could get a prompt from the private blog, and then perhaps a little later on the public blog publish the info. Everybody gets a piece of the pie, and it might attract people to subscribe. The new system makes only the Pro version worthwhile and that looks strictly for traders only.

To be fair to MA I have made some money from the public blog and helped my confidence in investing. MA used to write a lot about USD/YEN (I think before he tried again with Socrates) so after laying out money for the metals reports (and deciding to leave Gold until it goes under $1,000 per oz) I went long USD/YEN using an ETF and I made back the fee I paid for the reports (about £200), which as a non-trader was a great result. Using his general advice that markets are headed up I have been braver to invest and have benefited. I accept we have been in a QE fuelled bull run since March 2009 and I could have got the same ‘advice’ elsewhere but MA was giving long-term new-highs equity forecasts and they have been correct, as has his general call that GBP will fall against USD so I probably have more exposure to US equities than I otherwise would and that works great for a £GBP investor.

As a non-trader investor what intrigues me was his statement a little while ago that he might license Socrates to a fund management group. It is hard to be objective about his calls if the manner of investment differs between individuals and the risk/reward consideration is often overlooked, but an openly marketed registered fund would surely put to rest any argument about the validity of Socrates as it would be judged against its peers for all to see. I don’t mean it has to beat all its peers over every time frame but if it could provide regular positive returns with low risk (high Sharpe Ratio/high Information Ratio etc) then that would attract a lot of money and fulfil his stated commitment to the little guy.