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Showing 10 of 10 results by Rogozhin
A few years ago, one of my friends said he was "buying drugs with his graphics card" by running some open source software, I thought that was so utterly ridiculous I just had to check it out. Spent months reading up on all the finer aspects of Bitcoin and finally bought in. It's been a wild ride ever since!
But we are at least in agreement about something (HURRAH!) with regard to shorting: I don't participate in that market either, not so much for the reasons you stated but that it seems morally wrong to profit from the failure of a market (I remember the Soros-short inspired sterling crash of the eighties).
All this moral crap really annoys me. Shorting helps to prevent selloffs from being so severe, because shorts cover on the way down and provide buying demand.
Moralists always cause the opposite of what they portend to.
Successful trades buy low and sell high. They dampen market fluctuation, increase stability, and are in my view the most moral of all.
We are usually at the bottom when I get the feeling that I should sell for easy profit. I currently don't have such feeling but I'm starting to think towards that direction already.
Yeah every time I pull out the calculator and start thinking "How much can I still make it out with if I dump now" it's always retrospectively within a week from the bottom...
I just pulled my calculator out 2 days ago
Anyone get that feeling when a market is topping in euphoria or bottoming in despair?
I got that feeling at $225 during the April bubble, at $60 when it flash crashed, at $150 again at the rebound and at the $80 during the capitulation. It's that urgent type of feeling, a vous-devez type of obligation to act. When it's a euphoric tops, it's an alarming sensation of "You MUST buy in!! NOW!" and at bottoms it's a "Last chance to sell! Do it!" kind of heart-pounding focus. In retrospect it's obvious which trade is right but I usually end up making the exact opposite trade.
I'm getting that feeling right now. Anyone else?
I got that feeling at $225 during the April bubble, at $60 when it flash crashed, at $150 again at the rebound and at the $80 during the capitulation. It's that urgent type of feeling, a vous-devez type of obligation to act. When it's a euphoric tops, it's an alarming sensation of "You MUST buy in!! NOW!" and at bottoms it's a "Last chance to sell! Do it!" kind of heart-pounding focus. In retrospect it's obvious which trade is right but I usually end up making the exact opposite trade.
I'm getting that feeling right now. Anyone else?
Re: [Charts] Rogozhin - Elliott Wavecount and Sentiment Discussion
Call me crazy: My entire portfolio is now long at 2.3x leverage. Current price 478 Bitstamp. 
I missed the chance to leverage the July 6th bottom. I won't miss it again.
I missed the chance to leverage the July 6th bottom. I won't miss it again.
Hi Rogozhin,
Glad to see fellow EW analysts on the site. I only just started reading and applying EW principles about a month ago so I still have a lot to learn.
Would you agree that we just concluded a flat bottomed descending triangle at the $436 mark? If so, do you see this as the end of the correction or is there still the possibility of a complex pattern shaping up?
Glad to see fellow EW analysts on the site. I only just started reading and applying EW principles about a month ago so I still have a lot to learn.
Would you agree that we just concluded a flat bottomed descending triangle at the $436 mark? If so, do you see this as the end of the correction or is there still the possibility of a complex pattern shaping up?
http://i.imgur.com/BbhZhJ2.png
Yes it is a flat bottomed descending triangle around $436, but we have not broken out yet.
Note that price has a difficult time passing the $400 mark due to heavy resistance. The last two times price touched $400, volume spiked up extremely heavily, signalling many buyers were happy to buy at the price and many sellers were required to sustain it. Since we have a very large descending triangle with a bottom around the resistance $400-436, I place a high probability on it breaking to the upside. That would be similar to the April bubble scenario, in which $50 was major volume resistance and price bottomed just above it at $68 during the capitulation.
[Charts] Rogozhin - Elliott Wavecount and Sentiment Discussion
http://www.sentitrade.com/blog-en/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Elliott-wave.png
With the recent price drop of Bitcoin and the near completion of a full price cycle I would like to start an Elliott Wavecount thread focusing on sentiment analysis, volume analysis, fundamentals/news, and of course price. All are welcome, informed opinions, charts and wavecounts are highly encouraged.
More info here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
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Price is currently 476 on BTCe, and we soon start Wave 1 of the next cycle. It is characterized by focus on negative news (China's ban, recent Bter deposit shutdown rumors, USA's decision to tax capital gains) and negative investor sentiment. Shorting and selling is the popular action. Once the price starts rising and the classic disbelief of its veracity starts filling the forums we will be able to decisively declare Wave 1.
With the recent price drop of Bitcoin and the near completion of a full price cycle I would like to start an Elliott Wavecount thread focusing on sentiment analysis, volume analysis, fundamentals/news, and of course price. All are welcome, informed opinions, charts and wavecounts are highly encouraged.
More info here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle
====
Price is currently 476 on BTCe, and we soon start Wave 1 of the next cycle. It is characterized by focus on negative news (China's ban, recent Bter deposit shutdown rumors, USA's decision to tax capital gains) and negative investor sentiment. Shorting and selling is the popular action. Once the price starts rising and the classic disbelief of its veracity starts filling the forums we will be able to decisively declare Wave 1.