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Re: IS GHASH.IO Cheating Miners? Paying LESS THAN 50% of expected?
Perhaps my math is wrong
Looks like my math was wrong, my bad there.
No not shill I just mine there with Ant S3s so I see the blocks also. Lots of people quick to attack GHash so I like to defend as my experience there is good
Re: IS GHASH.IO Cheating Miners? Paying LESS THAN 50% of expected?
All I can see from your stats is you have a very unstable miner with huge variance in it's hashing power so something is up with it or your connection with Ghash that is specific to you (hence no one else jumping in with same story). My miners hashing stable over the same period reported by my miners and GHash stats.
Your cloud mining stats, you have picked a small window of 10 hours during which period the block-find times were very very long , 4 hours (x1). 2 hours (x3), 1 hour (x2), less than hour (x3). Even though you highlight 3 blocks where your cost was higher than reward (the long blocks) if you tally all the blocks shown and total reward V's cost you actually still made money in that very bad luck period. Perhaps my math is wrong I just quickly looked and added up what was shown on the screen in a spreadsheet profit 0.00009. Not much admittedly.
It is known fact that the CEX.IO cost for cloud impacts higher on longer blocks sometimes into negative. As difficulty increases that gets a bigger issue. The offset is the high number of block-finds the pool gets of smaller time-frame to balance out the longer ones over time.
So you made some money cloud-mining in a 10 hour period of the worst luck probably ever seen, and 2 blocks that didn't get paid due to an issue at GHash were investigated and have now been paid too. Hopefully your miner is stable and happily hashing again.
Your cloud mining stats, you have picked a small window of 10 hours during which period the block-find times were very very long , 4 hours (x1). 2 hours (x3), 1 hour (x2), less than hour (x3). Even though you highlight 3 blocks where your cost was higher than reward (the long blocks) if you tally all the blocks shown and total reward V's cost you actually still made money in that very bad luck period. Perhaps my math is wrong I just quickly looked and added up what was shown on the screen in a spreadsheet profit 0.00009. Not much admittedly.
It is known fact that the CEX.IO cost for cloud impacts higher on longer blocks sometimes into negative. As difficulty increases that gets a bigger issue. The offset is the high number of block-finds the pool gets of smaller time-frame to balance out the longer ones over time.
So you made some money cloud-mining in a 10 hour period of the worst luck probably ever seen, and 2 blocks that didn't get paid due to an issue at GHash were investigated and have now been paid too. Hopefully your miner is stable and happily hashing again.
Analysis of very large movements of BTC in accounts that have been dormant for years...zombie bitcoins...
http://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/a-history-of-zombie-events
http://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/a-history-of-zombie-events
Well this is thread in which to call it
so my prediction (similar to those above):
next top $5k ± $2k
correcting to $3k ± $1.5 k
http://i.imgur.com/BgFvwvu.png
EDIT: To address OPs question:
From a system analysis perspective (control theory)
The volatility I think is caused because the system is running at high gain and is not damped, so large oscillations in the groupthink of all users happens.
Anyone who understands what money is and what bitcoin is are lucky enough to be early adopters during these still early days.
so my prediction (similar to those above):
next top $5k ± $2k
correcting to $3k ± $1.5 k
http://i.imgur.com/BgFvwvu.png
EDIT: To address OPs question:
From a system analysis perspective (control theory)
The volatility I think is caused because the system is running at high gain and is not damped, so large oscillations in the groupthink of all users happens.
Anyone who understands what money is and what bitcoin is are lucky enough to be early adopters during these still early days.
Based on your chart better HODL till 2018 or so ;-)
Updating the channel trade idea with close stop. I have updated the chart as if I were trading it. As stated this trade I didn't take but updating outcome for all to see. As per chart I would move stop up to break-even point and let the trade progress some more, essentially I would now have a free trade (risk covered). This approach would enable me to take a new position if I wanted without increasing my risk of loss more than the new risk + the possible loss of profit in the first trade. The alternate approach is close out trade at the target area with about 5% profit (Entry $465, Exit $485 ish).
Great description of how to trade with a disciplined professional way, breath of fresh air compared to the majority of comments in this speculation forum. Keep it up.
I would like to start trading altcoins, bitcoin in paticular. Can anyone give me tips on best place to start and some sites you use to trade, thanks
CEX have started a regular blog on trading related topics, worth reading http://blog.cex.io/successful-trading-with-cex-io-trading-psychology/
Everything depends on what you are trying to achieve.
Now they are adding US$ trading and hopefully more cryptopairs and maybe other Futures products, so I will continue using them for trading.
You have to look at how they market themselves 'Crypto Exchange' and not just 'Cloud Mining' If you just buy GHS and hope to ROI on the mining reward well that won't work. Rising difficulty will and is your enemy there. The opportunities with CEX are from trading for sure.
Now they are adding US$ trading and hopefully more cryptopairs and maybe other Futures products, so I will continue using them for trading.
You have to look at how they market themselves 'Crypto Exchange' and not just 'Cloud Mining' If you just buy GHS and hope to ROI on the mining reward well that won't work. Rising difficulty will and is your enemy there. The opportunities with CEX are from trading for sure.
I never bought futures, although wish I had done. GHS are in a bear market so you have to trade it like that, buy on bounce back from dip (once support base is shown), set your stop loss exit just below support base and set an exit at resistance area once price bounces back up. These type of trades are short term and usually looking at 5 to 10% gains. Its not for everyone but typical short term trading style. I just closed out such a trade and show it below.
Still it does not make sense. GHS/BTC price should theoretically follow the difficulty increase. So for 25% diff increase the price should have decreased by 25%, i.e. from 0.0075 to somewhere around 0.0052.. Even though it dropped to 0.006 for a minute, it is now around 0.0067 which is less that 10% drop.
This means the market is extremely optimistic about the ROI of their investment..
This means the market is extremely optimistic about the ROI of their investment..
It has disconnected difficulty for around 8 weeks now which shows there is bullish sentiment on being able to buy and sell for a profit with some mining dividends in between as an upside. So as there is a disconnect it no longer follows it must move correlated. This doesn't mean that it won't reconnect in the future though.
Nice trade philipma1957.
Mentioned it before but showing 2 charts below. First is CEX.IO GHS price, second is Bitcoin Difficulty (inc total hashing). Up to May there was an inverse relationship between the 2. However since May the relationship has disconnected. There has been 6 difficulty increase since begin of May, but GHS price has trended up in that time-frame. Reason for showing is that you can consider the relationship between GHS and Difficulty / hashing power almost as a trading Pair because GHS essentially derives its value from the concept of an outcome from difficulty / total hashing power. So, has GHS in its market found a value that is now distinct from what Difficulty / hashing does? Or like trading pairs that have a historic trading pattern will the historic situation kick back in (i.e. return of inverse relationship)?
Re: Ghash using outdated Bitcoin Version vulnerable to Heartbleed and more..
Ah, right!
And transaction malleability?
And transaction malleability?
Perhaps you should change the thread heading seeing as it is a false statement.
Re: Cex.io: the largest Bitcoin cloud mining service, not a profitable investment
A few minutes with a calculator will show anyone why Cex.io can never be profitable when used just for mining. The price of a gigahash falls faster than the bitcoins that gigahash can generate during the same time, even if you end up selling the investment plus keeping the generated bitcoins. And then there are the fees.
The only people who make money on cex.io are the ones who got in very early and the traders riding the price downwards while extracting value from price swings. Everyone else loses.
The only people who make money on cex.io are the ones who got in very early and the traders riding the price downwards while extracting value from price swings. Everyone else loses.
Wrong i'm afraid, take a look at GHS price charts, been upwards since begin of May, interestingly it seems to have disconnected from it's inverse relationship to difficulty.. Take a look at the Futures contracts CEX.IO made available (FHA & FHM) again profitable opportunities.
If you ONLY buy cloud hashing sit back and expect a profit, then the only outcome you'll get is disapointment.
Trading GHS and mining combined can be profitable if you educate yourself and treat your trading as a business in terms of your approach.
Boycott a pool is not any type of solution. I find it amazing people are still on this subject and their only focus on hating GHash for what...offering a better product than others. Meanwhile the Bitcoin devs are not particularly concerned over 51% 'easily seen and defended against'
And in case no one noticed in the last 7 days the total hash rate of the Bitcoin network has increased by 50 PETA Hashes (from about 85PH to 135PH) and difficulty is due for a 25% jump next up. Personally I think that is a more noteworthy change in the network dynamic than the topic of this thread.
And in case no one noticed in the last 7 days the total hash rate of the Bitcoin network has increased by 50 PETA Hashes (from about 85PH to 135PH) and difficulty is due for a 25% jump next up. Personally I think that is a more noteworthy change in the network dynamic than the topic of this thread.
What great bitcoin wisdom advice here....'Better play roulette' 'I advise you to play at a casino'
OP, if you buy any cloud mining contract and sit back and do nothing you are unlikely to come away happy. If you have the time to educate yourself a bit about what you are getting into then perhaps you can profit or at least learn something. With CEX and GHS you are buying a trade-able asset with a very liquid market, which also happens to generate dividends in the shape of mining returns once you have bought them.
GHS pricing has been downwards for months pretty much inverse to difficulty increasing, however that relationship has disconnected for the past 6 weeks or so as GHS pricing (in its market has found a bottom area and remained above that and slightly trending upwards).
thresher says CEX was the first one of 3 he pulled out of due to high costs on 'their shit scam site' but what he didn't tell you is that his PB money is completely gone as it can never be 'pulled out' and with Havelock the liquidity is so low good luck getting that out at a price you'd like.
Again educate yourself a bit about what it is you are buying into and the reasons for doing it and make sure you have an exit strategy as well as an entry.
OP, if you buy any cloud mining contract and sit back and do nothing you are unlikely to come away happy. If you have the time to educate yourself a bit about what you are getting into then perhaps you can profit or at least learn something. With CEX and GHS you are buying a trade-able asset with a very liquid market, which also happens to generate dividends in the shape of mining returns once you have bought them.
GHS pricing has been downwards for months pretty much inverse to difficulty increasing, however that relationship has disconnected for the past 6 weeks or so as GHS pricing (in its market has found a bottom area and remained above that and slightly trending upwards).
thresher says CEX was the first one of 3 he pulled out of due to high costs on 'their shit scam site' but what he didn't tell you is that his PB money is completely gone as it can never be 'pulled out' and with Havelock the liquidity is so low good luck getting that out at a price you'd like.
Again educate yourself a bit about what it is you are buying into and the reasons for doing it and make sure you have an exit strategy as well as an entry.
Re: 51% attacks - something important people aren't realising
They have the potential disrupt bitcoin in a large way.
But a pool like GHash.io is demonstrating that it is not doing what that would require. (It may be, but anyone else also may be).
A 51% attack - the type worth actually being afraid of - will logically only be done by a silent entity, apparently solving no blocks, until suddenly it broadcasts a large amount of solved blocks on a chain longer than the current chain, that goes back many blocks, leaving many transactions potentially unconfirmed, or many coins double spent. Anyone can make an alt chain at any time, but having more power than the rest of the network (meaning having over 50% of your network and the rest of the network combined) means you have the ability to make a longer chain - one that will be automatically accepted by the rest of the network.
If a person/organisation has 51% of the total power of the network (which would be greater than double the entire known hashrate of the network due to this needing to be done in secret) they can mine their own chain on which they can conduct whatever mischief they like.
However, if they are solving blocks, and broadcasting them to the network, they are starting from the beginning of their "altchain" each time they broadcast a block - and will have to start a new fork. If they hide all their blocks from the network until they have say 100 blocks, and due to their 51% of the total (secret and known) hashing power (at least 230,000Th) eventually they will have an alt chain of a greater block size than the main chain (say, 99 blocks) then all the nodes will switch over to the longer chain.
I've read over this and it's slightly confusingly put. I will explain again, hopefully better here:
If Ghash.io wants to fork us, and it can given how much power it has, it would have to use all its hashing power to make a silent, parallel chain to the blockchain which it keeps silent for as many blocks as possible, until it has a few more blocks than the main chain. If this chain has not confirmed any transactions since the beginning of the fork, or had double spends within it, it would be very disruptive. However, given that Ghash is braodcasting blocks to the network, it cannot be doing this because it is USING its hashing power to solve blocks that the bitcoin community can see, and has no issues with.
The only risk is that they start being naughty. At which point the community will react, and a solution will be found. This is unlikely, as many have pointed out because it would destroy their business.
A true bitcoin destroying entity does not do what Ghash is doing. It buys up enough hashing power to equal, and then supersede the entire network, then makes a silent, longer blockchain with lots of unconfirmed transactions, most likely transactions that they had made that were included in the shorter chain that they then make invalid, allowing them to scam people as a secondary motive, but their primary motive of course, would be to destroy bitcoin completely by making all transactions in the last x blocks (since the fork) unconfirmed, and by continuing to not allow their confirmation.
Unfortunately, the above scenario is possible, but the chances of a mining pool doing it is just as likely as anyone else doing it, and a large amount of legitimately solved blocks, even an amount greater than 51% is not an attack, it's just a lot of solved blocks. Nothing is being attacked here.
Unless Ghash is only using say 20% of it's hashrate to mine the blocks we see, and is slyly building a powerful 200Petahash rig with which it makes a huge chain that wreaks havoc on the whole community, it is doing nothing wrong, it is just solving lots of blocks.
And to be honest, it is LESS likely to be doing this than anyone else, because if it was, it would be fighting against a network whose main power comes from itself.
Reasonable conclusion:
People who are attempting 51% attacks are not contributing to the honest part of the network, because if they were, they would be making their own goal harder.
The more legitimate blocks you create, the less likely you are to be attempting a 51% attack (the dangerous kind).
They may be attempting to make a "stupid" 51% attack, where they *shock* double spend a couple of transactions, we all notice and their whole pool comes crashing down.
Be afraid of 51% attacks. They could destroy us but they won't be done by a mining pool we all know about that submits honest blocks to the network.
But a pool like GHash.io is demonstrating that it is not doing what that would require. (It may be, but anyone else also may be).
A 51% attack - the type worth actually being afraid of - will logically only be done by a silent entity, apparently solving no blocks, until suddenly it broadcasts a large amount of solved blocks on a chain longer than the current chain, that goes back many blocks, leaving many transactions potentially unconfirmed, or many coins double spent. Anyone can make an alt chain at any time, but having more power than the rest of the network (meaning having over 50% of your network and the rest of the network combined) means you have the ability to make a longer chain - one that will be automatically accepted by the rest of the network.
If a person/organisation has 51% of the total power of the network (which would be greater than double the entire known hashrate of the network due to this needing to be done in secret) they can mine their own chain on which they can conduct whatever mischief they like.
However, if they are solving blocks, and broadcasting them to the network, they are starting from the beginning of their "altchain" each time they broadcast a block - and will have to start a new fork. If they hide all their blocks from the network until they have say 100 blocks, and due to their 51% of the total (secret and known) hashing power (at least 230,000Th) eventually they will have an alt chain of a greater block size than the main chain (say, 99 blocks) then all the nodes will switch over to the longer chain.
I've read over this and it's slightly confusingly put. I will explain again, hopefully better here:
If Ghash.io wants to fork us, and it can given how much power it has, it would have to use all its hashing power to make a silent, parallel chain to the blockchain which it keeps silent for as many blocks as possible, until it has a few more blocks than the main chain. If this chain has not confirmed any transactions since the beginning of the fork, or had double spends within it, it would be very disruptive. However, given that Ghash is braodcasting blocks to the network, it cannot be doing this because it is USING its hashing power to solve blocks that the bitcoin community can see, and has no issues with.
The only risk is that they start being naughty. At which point the community will react, and a solution will be found. This is unlikely, as many have pointed out because it would destroy their business.
A true bitcoin destroying entity does not do what Ghash is doing. It buys up enough hashing power to equal, and then supersede the entire network, then makes a silent, longer blockchain with lots of unconfirmed transactions, most likely transactions that they had made that were included in the shorter chain that they then make invalid, allowing them to scam people as a secondary motive, but their primary motive of course, would be to destroy bitcoin completely by making all transactions in the last x blocks (since the fork) unconfirmed, and by continuing to not allow their confirmation.
Unfortunately, the above scenario is possible, but the chances of a mining pool doing it is just as likely as anyone else doing it, and a large amount of legitimately solved blocks, even an amount greater than 51% is not an attack, it's just a lot of solved blocks. Nothing is being attacked here.
Unless Ghash is only using say 20% of it's hashrate to mine the blocks we see, and is slyly building a powerful 200Petahash rig with which it makes a huge chain that wreaks havoc on the whole community, it is doing nothing wrong, it is just solving lots of blocks.
And to be honest, it is LESS likely to be doing this than anyone else, because if it was, it would be fighting against a network whose main power comes from itself.
Reasonable conclusion:
People who are attempting 51% attacks are not contributing to the honest part of the network, because if they were, they would be making their own goal harder.
The more legitimate blocks you create, the less likely you are to be attempting a 51% attack (the dangerous kind).
They may be attempting to make a "stupid" 51% attack, where they *shock* double spend a couple of transactions, we all notice and their whole pool comes crashing down.
Be afraid of 51% attacks. They could destroy us but they won't be done by a mining pool we all know about that submits honest blocks to the network.
Thanks Spooderman, your explanation is a bit of sanity in the recent hysteria.
Is it safe to come out again?
I say this because on Sunday we saw the very worst of the so called 'Bitcoin Community' (apologies to most on this forum as probably the silent majority also watched) on both this forum and Reddit where literally hundreds of vitriolic, aggressive, threatening etc posts / conversations were sprayed out left right and center attacking the CEX.IO / GHash.IO entity, including death and violence threats to owners / users of that service.
It was totally pathetic and to me it showed one very good reason why Bitcoin has a lot of growing up to do. No, not because of the 51% issue (yes that does need to be addressed, but by the industry participants / guardians of the Bitcoin protocol themselves collaboratively) but because of the type of poisonous rhetoric that came forth over the past day or so. Just imagine a newbie to crypto currency having a look at this new opportunity doing a bit of research on the so called informative forums to be presented with the type of crap that was seen. They would quickly retreat back to the 'Yeh Mt.Gox and angry trolls is what Bitcoin is all about to me'
How can we have an industry grow and encourage innovation and expect mainstream uptake when companies that offer services people want to use get attacked and vilified because they are doing a good job and attracting customers over and above their competitors. Lets all attack Intel they have too many processors in the computer ecosystem, lets all attack Apple they have far too many mobile phones in the mobile ecosystem.
So for me, Bitcoin Community needs to learn a lesson from this and look at a way of collaboratively addressing the underlying issue.
I say this because on Sunday we saw the very worst of the so called 'Bitcoin Community' (apologies to most on this forum as probably the silent majority also watched) on both this forum and Reddit where literally hundreds of vitriolic, aggressive, threatening etc posts / conversations were sprayed out left right and center attacking the CEX.IO / GHash.IO entity, including death and violence threats to owners / users of that service.
It was totally pathetic and to me it showed one very good reason why Bitcoin has a lot of growing up to do. No, not because of the 51% issue (yes that does need to be addressed, but by the industry participants / guardians of the Bitcoin protocol themselves collaboratively) but because of the type of poisonous rhetoric that came forth over the past day or so. Just imagine a newbie to crypto currency having a look at this new opportunity doing a bit of research on the so called informative forums to be presented with the type of crap that was seen. They would quickly retreat back to the 'Yeh Mt.Gox and angry trolls is what Bitcoin is all about to me'
How can we have an industry grow and encourage innovation and expect mainstream uptake when companies that offer services people want to use get attacked and vilified because they are doing a good job and attracting customers over and above their competitors. Lets all attack Intel they have too many processors in the computer ecosystem, lets all attack Apple they have far too many mobile phones in the mobile ecosystem.
So for me, Bitcoin Community needs to learn a lesson from this and look at a way of collaboratively addressing the underlying issue.
Re: [Antminer S1 Sales open] Price changes daily, now 0.414 BTC for 180GH/s
Dear Customers,
Antminer S1 has been officially discontinued production except the warranty parts reservation.
Happy Mining
BITMAIN
Antminer S1 has been officially discontinued production except the warranty parts reservation.
Happy Mining
BITMAIN
Any old S1s out there?
I've had mine running for about 4 months at 400 Mhz without any serious problems.
I'm just curious about how long they last. Would like to hear how long you've been running overclocked.
I've had mine running for about 4 months at 400 Mhz without any serious problems.
I'm just curious about how long they last. Would like to hear how long you've been running overclocked.
3 overclocked for about 4 months. 1 fell over. The diagnosis was probably a controller issue not cooked hashing chips!! Remaining 2 happily still working.