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Re: 🌟WINDOWS OFFICE KEYS ADOBE AUTODESK [1YEAR+ TOPIC][~50 FEEDBACK][AUTOBUY]
this also seems to have another attack vector.
some miners seem to be trying to sweep these transaction themselves.
if 1mb of UTXOs from coinwallet > fees they are going to get, i betcha some miners would rather have blocks with 2-3 txs if that lets them earn more by sweeping these coins.
some miners seem to be trying to sweep these transaction themselves.
if 1mb of UTXOs from coinwallet > fees they are going to get, i betcha some miners would rather have blocks with 2-3 txs if that lets them earn more by sweeping these coins.
In fairness, I actually bought Office 2013 Pro plus off this guy for 6 (0.025399 btc) and he delivered.
https://blockchain.info/tx/54df9c6600d594c4c74c8318186ea389b33ee396ebea99eeb24452037cc445e0
https://blockchain.info/tx/54df9c6600d594c4c74c8318186ea389b33ee396ebea99eeb24452037cc445e0
got key fast. right after i sent tx. awesome!!! 
https://blockchain.info/tx/54df9c6600d594c4c74c8318186ea389b33ee396ebea99eeb24452037cc445e0
https://blockchain.info/tx/54df9c6600d594c4c74c8318186ea389b33ee396ebea99eeb24452037cc445e0
Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value
Hello everybody,
I'm pretty new to bitcoin, looked first at it this summer. I also did some curve fitting to the historical data in log scale. Of course, one has to be extremely cautious when extrapolating from early price movements, but intuitively the idea that the bitcoin price should "do something" is pretty clear. I'm cautiously also buying modest amounts of bitcoin... for my retirement in a few decades, based upon similar extrapolations.
When looking at the long term (and not doing day trading), one must always look at the fundamentals. Now, bitcoin is supposed to be a monetary asset, in the same way as fiat, or as physical gold: it doesn't serve any other purpose but as "money", that is, intermediate vector of value. A monetary asset is in a certain way a "frozen Ponzi scheme" or a "frozen bubble" to some extend in my opinion: the only reason why you give it value today (why you want to spend real effort and other monetary assets on it) is that you believe that someone else will estimate it has value tomorrow, and that you will get something for it in return.
Shares, houses, and other investments also have a part of "monetary asset", but they usually also have another cash flow associated to them, like dividends, rent or usage (you can *live* in a house), so there is a "floor" to their price, which is their cash flow or usage. Gold has a very limited "usage" in jewels and so on, but is essentially a nearly purely monetary asset.
Now, for a purely monetary asset, its "value" is solely determined by the "quantity theory of money", which states that in steady state:
P x Q = M x V
where P is the price of goods, Q is the quantity of goods bought with the monetary asset, M is the amount of monetary asset, and V is the average velocity of the monetary asset.
The "price of a bitcoin" B is then 1/P, and we have:
B = 1/P = Q / (M x V)
So you can expect the price of a bitcoin to be the amount of stuff (expressed in dollars) divided by the amount of bitcoin in circulation M, and divided by the velocity V.
Now, 1/V is given by the "(harmonic) average holding time" of a bitcoin between two buys, which we can call T.
We hence have:
B = Q x T / M
Or: the market capitalisation is B x M = Q x T
In other words, the market capitalisation is grossly given by the value of all stuff bought with bitcoin, times the (harmonic) average hold time of a bitcoin.
Many expectations of "too the moon" are based upon a similar "holding time" T for fiat and for bitcoin: in that case, the market capitalisation is then comparable to the fraction of the fiat market capitalisation that is done in bitcoin.
......
Awesome analysis dinofelis. Bitcoin's full utility must be realized before its realizes it potential value. There's also quite a difference between miner's mining costs and what market is currently paying for it. So seems like even miners are speculating or rather banking on whats its future price may be.
In short we can compare this to the discovery a new important resource: People discover Goldoilphene, and know it has great potential and promise. But no matter how much it cost to mine/make this new discovery, the realization of this new element potential, be it in part or fully, will ultimately determine the price the market will be willing to pay for it.
When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days.
Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days.
Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days.
Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:
In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1
Recalculated over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it was 23.45% and 11.41 days.
Now, recalculating over the period August 24, 2013 to August 31, 2014 it is 21.12% and 11.63 days.
Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:
Code:
Hash Rate Power Energy Cost Cost
Date Difficulty TH/s MW MWh $/Period $/BTC
--------- ------------------ ---------- ------ ---------- -------------- ----------
11-Sep-14 33,220,936,877 237,808 238 66,349 $6,634,853 $131.64
23-Sep-14 40,236,446,759 288,028 288 80,360 $8,035,984 $159.44
04-Oct-14 48,733,473,526 348,853 349 97,330 $9,733,002 $193.12
16-Oct-14 59,024,880,009 422,523 423 117,884 $11,788,392 $233.90
28-Oct-14 71,489,598,585 511,750 512 142,778 $14,277,833 $283.29
08-Nov-14 86,586,583,575 619,820 620 172,930 $17,292,988 $343.11
20-Nov-14 104,871,710,060 750,712 751 209,449 $20,944,876 $415.57
02-Dec-14 127,018,241,359 909,246 909 253,680 $25,367,960 $503.33
13-Dec-14 153,841,618,762 1,101,258 1,101 307,251 $30,725,098 $609.62
25-Dec-14 186,329,486,300 1,333,819 1,334 372,135 $37,213,544 $738.36
05-Jan-15 225,678,056,071 1,615,491 1,615 450,722 $45,072,202 $894.29
17-Jan-15 273,336,153,086 1,956,646 1,957 545,904 $54,590,430 $1,083.14
29-Jan-15 331,058,561,407 2,369,846 2,370 661,187 $66,118,694 $1,311.88
09-Feb-15 400,970,635,767 2,870,303 2,870 800,815 $80,081,465 $1,588.92
21-Feb-15 485,646,557,708 3,476,447 3,476 969,929 $96,992,858 $1,924.46
05-Mar-15 588,204,117,648 4,210,593 4,211 1,174,756 $117,475,554 $2,330.86
16-Mar-15 712,419,512,763 5,099,775 5,100 1,422,837 $142,283,732 $2,823.09
28-Mar-15 862,866,387,600 6,176,732 6,177 1,723,308 $172,330,835 $3,419.26
08-Apr-15 1,045,084,236,901 7,481,119 7,481 2,087,232 $208,723,207 $4,141.33
20-Apr-15 1,265,782,371,309 9,060,961 9,061 2,528,008 $252,800,823 $5,015.89
02-May-15 1,533,086,956,002 10,974,431 10,974 3,061,866 $306,186,635 $6,075.13
13-May-15 1,856,840,218,301 13,291,983 13,292 3,708,463 $370,846,321 $7,358.06
25-May-15 2,248,962,841,151 16,098,949 16,099 4,491,607 $449,160,670 $8,911.92
06-Jun-15 2,723,892,885,897 19,498,682 19,499 5,440,132 $544,013,236 $10,793.91
17-Jun-15 3,299,117,405,623 23,616,363 23,616 6,588,965 $658,896,517 $13,073.34
29-Jun-15 3,995,816,323,188 28,603,604 28,604 7,980,405 $798,040,547 $15,834.14
10-Jul-15 4,839,642,281,734 34,644,038 34,644 9,665,686 $966,568,646 $19,177.95
22-Jul-15 5,861,665,181,962 41,960,074 41,960 11,706,861 $1,170,686,065 $23,227.90
03-Aug-15 7,099,516,184,307 50,821,092 50,821 14,179,085 $1,417,908,463 $28,133.10
14-Aug-15 8,598,773,298,472 61,553,356 61,553 17,173,386 $1,717,338,634 $34,074.18
26-Aug-15 10,414,639,578,109 74,552,032 74,552 20,800,017 $2,080,001,680 $41,269.87
07-Sep-15 12,613,975,712,232 90,295,733 90,296 25,192,510 $2,519,250,952 $49,985.14
Date Difficulty TH/s MW MWh $/Period $/BTC
--------- ------------------ ---------- ------ ---------- -------------- ----------
11-Sep-14 33,220,936,877 237,808 238 66,349 $6,634,853 $131.64
23-Sep-14 40,236,446,759 288,028 288 80,360 $8,035,984 $159.44
04-Oct-14 48,733,473,526 348,853 349 97,330 $9,733,002 $193.12
16-Oct-14 59,024,880,009 422,523 423 117,884 $11,788,392 $233.90
28-Oct-14 71,489,598,585 511,750 512 142,778 $14,277,833 $283.29
08-Nov-14 86,586,583,575 619,820 620 172,930 $17,292,988 $343.11
20-Nov-14 104,871,710,060 750,712 751 209,449 $20,944,876 $415.57
02-Dec-14 127,018,241,359 909,246 909 253,680 $25,367,960 $503.33
13-Dec-14 153,841,618,762 1,101,258 1,101 307,251 $30,725,098 $609.62
25-Dec-14 186,329,486,300 1,333,819 1,334 372,135 $37,213,544 $738.36
05-Jan-15 225,678,056,071 1,615,491 1,615 450,722 $45,072,202 $894.29
17-Jan-15 273,336,153,086 1,956,646 1,957 545,904 $54,590,430 $1,083.14
29-Jan-15 331,058,561,407 2,369,846 2,370 661,187 $66,118,694 $1,311.88
09-Feb-15 400,970,635,767 2,870,303 2,870 800,815 $80,081,465 $1,588.92
21-Feb-15 485,646,557,708 3,476,447 3,476 969,929 $96,992,858 $1,924.46
05-Mar-15 588,204,117,648 4,210,593 4,211 1,174,756 $117,475,554 $2,330.86
16-Mar-15 712,419,512,763 5,099,775 5,100 1,422,837 $142,283,732 $2,823.09
28-Mar-15 862,866,387,600 6,176,732 6,177 1,723,308 $172,330,835 $3,419.26
08-Apr-15 1,045,084,236,901 7,481,119 7,481 2,087,232 $208,723,207 $4,141.33
20-Apr-15 1,265,782,371,309 9,060,961 9,061 2,528,008 $252,800,823 $5,015.89
02-May-15 1,533,086,956,002 10,974,431 10,974 3,061,866 $306,186,635 $6,075.13
13-May-15 1,856,840,218,301 13,291,983 13,292 3,708,463 $370,846,321 $7,358.06
25-May-15 2,248,962,841,151 16,098,949 16,099 4,491,607 $449,160,670 $8,911.92
06-Jun-15 2,723,892,885,897 19,498,682 19,499 5,440,132 $544,013,236 $10,793.91
17-Jun-15 3,299,117,405,623 23,616,363 23,616 6,588,965 $658,896,517 $13,073.34
29-Jun-15 3,995,816,323,188 28,603,604 28,604 7,980,405 $798,040,547 $15,834.14
10-Jul-15 4,839,642,281,734 34,644,038 34,644 9,665,686 $966,568,646 $19,177.95
22-Jul-15 5,861,665,181,962 41,960,074 41,960 11,706,861 $1,170,686,065 $23,227.90
03-Aug-15 7,099,516,184,307 50,821,092 50,821 14,179,085 $1,417,908,463 $28,133.10
14-Aug-15 8,598,773,298,472 61,553,356 61,553 17,173,386 $1,717,338,634 $34,074.18
26-Aug-15 10,414,639,578,109 74,552,032 74,552 20,800,017 $2,080,001,680 $41,269.87
07-Sep-15 12,613,975,712,232 90,295,733 90,296 25,192,510 $2,519,250,952 $49,985.14
In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before December 1
BurtW: Im a correct in assuming that these costs are just for power/electricity usage. Other costs, such as the average price of mining equipment / THs isnt taken into account?
FYI, the linux binary doesn't run out of the box on CentOS 6 (6.5 fully updated).
...
...
This is keeping me from updating my full node.
same. as expecting it to run out of the box with centos 6.5. will try to build on a different box. can risk building on a production server. sigh
31337,
Thanks for showing the compile-from-source after force-installing the "improved" openssl library.
However, what we would like to do is to install the openssl library as well as boost, boost-devel, boost-thread, db4 and db4-devel in a "chroot" environment and then build the bitcoind in that environment.
That way, you don't overwrite your default openssl CentOS library (which is generally not recommended)
I think it will more or less require the following six steps:
1. Compile the ECDSA openssl library with mock as per previous instructions. Installed in the build root, i.e. DO NOT overwrite your normal openssl library.
2. Download bitcoind source and create a "spec" file for it so it can be converted into an rpm package.
3. In the "spec" file, specify the following libraries as buildrequires: boost, boost-devel, boost-thread, db4, db4-devel and the ECDSA-capable openssl library. (http://www.rpm.org/max-rpm/ch-rpm-inside.html). I also assume you have to note boost and db4 as library requires (if you link then dynamically). Install the libraries (using mock?)
4. Compile the bitcoind source package in the same chroot environment - this ensures it can find the new openssl library. Mock seems to be the right tool for the job.
5. Ensure that "our" openssl library is STATICALLY linked - this prevents runtime link attempts to the system openssl library, which cannot do elliptic curves.
6. Install the compiled bitcoind binary rpm.
I'm not yet 100% sure how the script for the above 6 steps will look like, but it will be similar to yours, with the exception of using rpmbuild and/or mock in the make process.
If anyone who knows mock/rpmbuild/chroot want to attempt to script the above 6 steps, please jump right in!!!
Thanks for showing the compile-from-source after force-installing the "improved" openssl library.
However, what we would like to do is to install the openssl library as well as boost, boost-devel, boost-thread, db4 and db4-devel in a "chroot" environment and then build the bitcoind in that environment.
That way, you don't overwrite your default openssl CentOS library (which is generally not recommended)
I think it will more or less require the following six steps:
1. Compile the ECDSA openssl library with mock as per previous instructions. Installed in the build root, i.e. DO NOT overwrite your normal openssl library.
2. Download bitcoind source and create a "spec" file for it so it can be converted into an rpm package.
3. In the "spec" file, specify the following libraries as buildrequires: boost, boost-devel, boost-thread, db4, db4-devel and the ECDSA-capable openssl library. (http://www.rpm.org/max-rpm/ch-rpm-inside.html). I also assume you have to note boost and db4 as library requires (if you link then dynamically). Install the libraries (using mock?)
4. Compile the bitcoind source package in the same chroot environment - this ensures it can find the new openssl library. Mock seems to be the right tool for the job.
5. Ensure that "our" openssl library is STATICALLY linked - this prevents runtime link attempts to the system openssl library, which cannot do elliptic curves.
6. Install the compiled bitcoind binary rpm.
I'm not yet 100% sure how the script for the above 6 steps will look like, but it will be similar to yours, with the exception of using rpmbuild and/or mock in the make process.
If anyone who knows mock/rpmbuild/chroot want to attempt to script the above 6 steps, please jump right in!!!
any updates on your progress on this sh script?
Full stack dev. Been holding bitcoins since 2011. Now currently working on a bitcoin related project. (angular, PHP, mysql, redis, javascript, nodejs, backbone, c++)
Pretty familiar with the protocol, open to help anyone with a great idea.
Pretty familiar with the protocol, open to help anyone with a great idea.