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how about this calculator take into account future difficulty increase ?future difficulty is based on past developments .
http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php
My calc was made to give an average because i was curious. Its easy to put in a few numbers and run an estimate at different difficulty jumps to get an idea of what to expect.
Also, that calculator has so many ads on it, its ridiculous
Re: [OPEN IN-STOCK SHIPPING] batch #27/28 .07 btc USB + 1.85 btc Blade miners
There is a serious need for a price decrease on the Erupters.
Pleeeezzz
Pleeeezzz
The price is fine, the need is for higher hashing power. But i assume price will continue to dwindle (especially after another 40%jump in difficulty) while current stock is depleted. And especially when/if new better versions come out.
Quote
what is the ROI period?
Use http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ to calculate it as it assumes a profit decline into the equation.
I got 63 days based on 6BTC @ $170ea 0.15c/kWh power but prices move every day who knows tomorrow or how long it takes to deliver?
I checked too, that's good!
Would you recommend?
That calculator assumes decrease of profitability over A YEAR and the default is set to 60%. Difficulty has been increasing 40% every 10 days or so.
...so it's not accurate?
Of course we very likely won't see 40% increases each period over the next 12 months, however the take away should be that yes profitability will almost certainly drop far more than 60% in a year.
Please correct me if my 13m figure is off, it's been awhile since I've done much math.
By my calculations At $170/btc and $0.15 / kWh its going to cost more to mine than what you return after around 70 days at 40% increases, so you dont even have to look at it a full year.
Even at the rate as of this posting which is $195 / btc that would only buy you a few more days at 40% increases.
Its almost like the inital calcs were made (intentionally incorrectly) by hardware makers to help push sales.
this is a calculator i have been playing with for a while. everybody tells me that its not an adequate calc but for the past couple months it has done pretty good and getting close to where i would be with miners running. we have seen ~30% increases for the past 5 diff jumps until the most recent one which was over 40% but with all the hardware coming out, 40's or better may be what we see for a while. but who knows.
it seems that you cant get in to mining to be profitable anymore unless you have massive amounts of money to spend on hardware/power/cooling. at least btc/usd is trending upwards right now so maybe that can help keep the low output of miners a still survivable market for smaller mining setups
it seems that you cant get in to mining to be profitable anymore unless you have massive amounts of money to spend on hardware/power/cooling. at least btc/usd is trending upwards right now so maybe that can help keep the low output of miners a still survivable market for smaller mining setups
crowdsourcing at attractive prices seems like a good idea but everyone knows the proper way to make asic miners
1.) is to design something that works really well and is currently profitable
2 - a.) mine with them until you make back your money.
2 - b.) take pre-orders posting current mining stats as "speculated stats" or "prototype stats"
3.) fulfill the pre-orders and sell them for just under what they would ever in their lifetime make back.
if you upset that balance, then a lot of people will be out of jobs in the mining hardware scene (aka making it an honest trade)
so far that seems like the business plan of the most successful mining hardware vendors. well that and just selling older hardware at prices that will just barely break even before being useless (cost of power > btc output)
I have no proof, just speculation and observation of current scenarios. Only time will tell with all the current pre-order hardware. but it is always very convenient that the hardware that comes out will just barely break even on mining. then the mining companies just say "its an investment into bitcoin"
The only way to make money on btc mining seems to be buy big, mine a little, sell the hardware before its useless to hopefully have coins while breaking even. and the only way to make money on bitcoin (apart from selling hardware) seems to be to buy low / sell high on the exchanges.
1.) is to design something that works really well and is currently profitable
2 - a.) mine with them until you make back your money.
2 - b.) take pre-orders posting current mining stats as "speculated stats" or "prototype stats"
3.) fulfill the pre-orders and sell them for just under what they would ever in their lifetime make back.
if you upset that balance, then a lot of people will be out of jobs in the mining hardware scene (aka making it an honest trade)
so far that seems like the business plan of the most successful mining hardware vendors. well that and just selling older hardware at prices that will just barely break even before being useless (cost of power > btc output)
I have no proof, just speculation and observation of current scenarios. Only time will tell with all the current pre-order hardware. but it is always very convenient that the hardware that comes out will just barely break even on mining. then the mining companies just say "its an investment into bitcoin"
The only way to make money on btc mining seems to be buy big, mine a little, sell the hardware before its useless to hopefully have coins while breaking even. and the only way to make money on bitcoin (apart from selling hardware) seems to be to buy low / sell high on the exchanges.
Good progress on the calculator, atomriot. Keep it up!
Would you be interested in earning a bounty for a more advanced version of this calculator?
I've opened a bounty topic here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294288.0
Let me know here or there, what you think of the idea. Do you think it's doable?
By the way, I've named your calculator there too as an example of mining calculators.
Would you be interested in earning a bounty for a more advanced version of this calculator?
I've opened a bounty topic here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=294288.0
Let me know here or there, what you think of the idea. Do you think it's doable?
By the way, I've named your calculator there too as an example of mining calculators.
Seems fairly doable. But an accurate calculator seems like it would be bad for business.
I have added on some general info display as well as the ability to add hardware as you mine more btc.
Thinking about adding an "additional hardware limit" so it only adds a certain amount of devices but have not ran through other things i could add.
Thinking about adding an "additional hardware limit" so it only adds a certain amount of devices but have not ran through other things i could add.
Re: [OPEN IN-STOCK SHIPPING!] batch #23/24 .105 btc USB + 4 btc NEW Blade miners
How do you switch from low/high-power modes? Is it a hidden configuration setting or do I have to jumper something?
I'm running the blades off a backplane that's being fed by one of those HP DPS800's that the plane is designed to work with.
Out of the whole plane, I just have one "x" chip out of the whole setup. It "might" be a power issue, but I'm more inclined to think it's just a funky chip. I'll happily troubleshoot anything though.
EDIT: These are the non-overclockable blades. Does that mean there is no such thing as low/high-power mode?
I'm running the blades off a backplane that's being fed by one of those HP DPS800's that the plane is designed to work with.
Out of the whole plane, I just have one "x" chip out of the whole setup. It "might" be a power issue, but I'm more inclined to think it's just a funky chip. I'll happily troubleshoot anything though.
EDIT: These are the non-overclockable blades. Does that mean there is no such thing as low/high-power mode?
Yea i would guess its just not an option on the v2 blades.its a button on the configuration page of the v1 blades. Right by switch server, refresh and update/restart
Re: [OPEN IN-STOCK SHIPPING!] batch #23/24 .105 btc USB + 4 btc NEW Blade miners
I got my blades today!
Most of them are perfect... but I think one of them has a dead chip.
Any way to fix that? If not, does that qualify for warranty replacement?
Most of them are perfect... but I think one of them has a dead chip.
Code:
Chip: OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOxOOOOOOOOOOOO
Any way to fix that? If not, does that qualify for warranty replacement?
I have this sometimes on a v1 blade. If i start in low power mode then switch to high its fine. Or i just adjusted the power and its fine again in high power mode.
Re: [OPEN IN-STOCK SHIPPING!] batch #23/24 .16 btc USB + 4 btc NEW Blade miners
these usbs will need to be around .13 each soon to be worth messing with 
they are already novelty. the difficulty is too high to get anything useful out of them other than a few bit-cents a piece
a year worth of mining with starting at 10 and adding a new one as soon as you get enough coin only gives you an addition 7 units and .08 btc in your hands calculated reference
then you are left with 17 usb sticks that cant really do anything.
this calculation of course is an estimation and assumes 30% increases each time and does not factor in hub costs.
its getting harder to mine while not losing USD. better save your power and just invest in coins not miners.
your calc reference is not good. 1 year of 30 % each adjustment will never happen. just not possible. basically that is about 1.3 to the 32nd power silly to think that is what will happen.
86.9
112.9 11 days
146.8 22 days
190.9 33 days
248.1 44 days
322.6 55 days
419.4 66 days
545.2 77 days
708.8 88 days
921.5 99 days these will not continue as that speed
30% for a year may not happen but as the huge miners start dropping ,there will be higher jumps in difficulty and then it should mellow out. so over that time, it could average around 30% per jump. and from here on out, there will only be bigger miners being sold so the rise of hashing power doesnt look to be slowing anytime soon.
its just not possible to get any kind of accurate guess for that length of time.
Re: [OPEN IN-STOCK SHIPPING!] batch #23/24 .16 btc USB + 4 btc NEW Blade miners
these usbs will need to be around .13 each soon to be worth messing with
they are already novelty. the difficulty is too high to get anything useful out of them other than a few bit-cents a piece
a year worth of mining with starting at 10 and adding a new one as soon as you get enough coin only gives you an addition 7 units and .08 btc in your hands calculated reference
then you are left with 17 usb sticks that cant really do anything.
this calculation of course is an estimation and assumes 30% increases each time and does not factor in hub costs.
its getting harder to mine while not losing USD. better save your power and just invest in coins not miners.
Re: [OPEN IN-STOCK SHIPPING!] batch #23/24 .16 btc USB + 4 btc NEW Blade miners
So when are prices dropping again? I know its a game of mine and wait but currently neither the blades nor the usbs are profitable by my calculatution. Assuming btc stays at 130 for the next 6 months. (And thats assuming no pool fee)
Im not a hater, i have 4 blades churning away until unprofitability. Just waiting for the next chance to not loose money on this.
Im not a hater, i have 4 blades churning away until unprofitability. Just waiting for the next chance to not loose money on this.
Well this makes sense, to a certain degree. For example , in the long haul, I may mine with K16 for 4 months until it costs more to power, then to mine.
Then I would replace said HW with "better" HW in theory, as 4 months from now Bitfury and others will have more HW in the market.
It may get complex and separate calculations may work better though
Then I would replace said HW with "better" HW in theory, as 4 months from now Bitfury and others will have more HW in the market.
It may get complex and separate calculations may work better though
One way to handle this would be to require multiple calculations to be ran but add a variable of "wait x days first"
Tbis way you could run the initial hardware calculation for the first set of hardware. then Do another one saying wait 120 days then calculate for 120 days. So it still adds up difficulty but just doesnt factor in mining for the first period.
Can you allow pool fee to be 0% , as some will mine themselves?
thanks for the Day of last profit calc also!
thanks for the Day of last profit calc also!
Fixed
i went ahead and added the max days where coins are profitable. (usd/day > power cost/day)
this is an estimation of course since the rate of btc can do anything during the calculated time frame
it also show the estimated difficulty before coins are no longer being made.
I have been thinking about adding in a section to add hardware after a threshold. like say you want to add asicminer blades once you make enough coin to buy one. so at current price (4btc) after 4 btc has been generated, reduce total btc by 4 and add 10GHs to the hashing power.
so you would have a coin threshold and an associated hashing power increase as well as power rate increase.
is this something that would be meaningful to anyone other than myself? the intricacies of this would be something I would have to play with and would throw off other calculations like the max time hashing is effective but could offer some insight to how best to expand your mining setup.
this is an estimation of course since the rate of btc can do anything during the calculated time frame
it also show the estimated difficulty before coins are no longer being made.
I have been thinking about adding in a section to add hardware after a threshold. like say you want to add asicminer blades once you make enough coin to buy one. so at current price (4btc) after 4 btc has been generated, reduce total btc by 4 and add 10GHs to the hashing power.
so you would have a coin threshold and an associated hashing power increase as well as power rate increase.
is this something that would be meaningful to anyone other than myself? the intricacies of this would be something I would have to play with and would throw off other calculations like the max time hashing is effective but could offer some insight to how best to expand your mining setup.
any plans on releasing the code open source?
Kosta
Kosta
i havent really thought about it. maybe one day but its not a super difficult calculation. Plus Im still in and out of it a lot making little changes so i dont think it would be worth being open source right now.
Re: [CLOSED] batch #20/21 .31 - .35 btc for USB miners & 10.25 blades - USA only
Hey, So I just took an hour to figure out how to setup the proxy with the arguments for the pool, and it looks like Deepbit won't talk to the proxy, but I appear to have been able to connect the proxy to EclipseMC.
However, after I configured the blade, it immediately went to CHIP: xxxxxxxxxOxxxxOxxxxxxxx
Thats weird, and I got no hashing on the config page, or in the pool even after 10 minutes. What gives?
that does seem like a power issue. did you adjust the voltage on your blade? if so, where did you touch the multimeter leads? if not, try your blade on "low" and pointed directly at the pool not through the proxy and restart it. see if it looks normal. if so, change the clock to high and see if it looks normal.
if both look normal then try the proxy. the x's likely mean there is not enough power though.
Here is the weird part, when on LOW and pointed directly the pool it restarts every 2 minutes and 15-30 seconds. Everytime. This blade has stock voltages, The other blade next to it, at 1.195V and a different PSU also restarts on nearly the same interval. Both blades on low produce between 4-8Ghash roughly.
I just setup my third (and last) blade on a much stronger PSU, and it is currently at stock voltages and I am running it through the same paces. On LOW pointing straight to the pool it also is doing the exact same behavior and speed.
I have also heard that the blades have problems sometimes with certain devices on the network. some peopl had issues with android devices, some people had issues with specific routers. Try disabling everything you can and see if that has any effect. sounds like either they are not getting enough power or maybe not wired up correctly. are they getting power from multiple power rails? not just different plugs on the same wire bundle, you should use multiple bundles. if you dont the connectors will get hot and eventually melt through because its trying to pull too much power through it
Re: [CLOSED] batch #20/21 .31 - .35 btc for USB miners & 10.25 blades - USA only
Hey, So I just took an hour to figure out how to setup the proxy with the arguments for the pool, and it looks like Deepbit won't talk to the proxy, but I appear to have been able to connect the proxy to EclipseMC.
However, after I configured the blade, it immediately went to CHIP: xxxxxxxxxOxxxxOxxxxxxxx
Thats weird, and I got no hashing on the config page, or in the pool even after 10 minutes. What gives?
that does seem like a power issue. did you adjust the voltage on your blade? if so, where did you touch the multimeter leads? if not, try your blade on "low" and pointed directly at the pool not through the proxy and restart it. see if it looks normal. if so, change the clock to high and see if it looks normal.
if both look normal then try the proxy. the x's likely mean there is not enough power though.
Re: [CLOSED] batch #20/21 .31 - .35 btc for USB miners & 10.25 blades - USA only
Hey there, I got a few blades yesterday and I have read this entire thread, which has some amazing info! But I am still having trouble! This is what I got with 2 blades last night:
2 Generic PSU's papercliped. 17amp+ 12v. 2 individual molex strands cut and fed to blade. (2-4 yellows, 4-6 blacks) Direct from PSU
Blades configured properly for Deepbit and EclipseMC
For testing one blade is at 1.195 Volts The other is at stock 1.05V
Both Blades on LOW, With: Chip: OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Blades being cooled with a insanely strong blower blowing through them long-ways. (at least several hundred CFM, they are only warm to the touch)
Blades basically won't work on DeepBit no matter what I try. Every once in a while they send a few shares.
On EclipseMC the blades show between 1-8Ghash on the Eclipse control panel on the site. When I compare the shares against a 5.6ghash Jalepeno they seem to be doing more work, but not that much more. This is what the config page looks like:
Total MHS: 00000
Received: 0000000215
Accepted: 0000000000
Per Minute: 000.00
Efficiency: 000.00%
Up Time: 0d,00h,01m,41s
They seem to be restarting almost exactly every 2 minutes and 15 seconds, weird right?
I don't think its a power issue, I am NOT using the proxy (the links are down and I'm not sure they are useful for other pools?)
What am I doing wrong, is it a network issue with get-work? They have been running like this for 8 hours now with same results. Any ideas?
2 Generic PSU's papercliped. 17amp+ 12v. 2 individual molex strands cut and fed to blade. (2-4 yellows, 4-6 blacks) Direct from PSU
Blades configured properly for Deepbit and EclipseMC
For testing one blade is at 1.195 Volts The other is at stock 1.05V
Both Blades on LOW, With: Chip: OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Blades being cooled with a insanely strong blower blowing through them long-ways. (at least several hundred CFM, they are only warm to the touch)
Blades basically won't work on DeepBit no matter what I try. Every once in a while they send a few shares.
On EclipseMC the blades show between 1-8Ghash on the Eclipse control panel on the site. When I compare the shares against a 5.6ghash Jalepeno they seem to be doing more work, but not that much more. This is what the config page looks like:
Total MHS: 00000
Received: 0000000215
Accepted: 0000000000
Per Minute: 000.00
Efficiency: 000.00%
Up Time: 0d,00h,01m,41s
They seem to be restarting almost exactly every 2 minutes and 15 seconds, weird right?
I don't think its a power issue, I am NOT using the proxy (the links are down and I'm not sure they are useful for other pools?)
What am I doing wrong, is it a network issue with get-work? They have been running like this for 8 hours now with same results. Any ideas?
i would recommend trying to use the proxy. i hosted it here temporarily since slush's thing is down. also in that zip is a shortcut that sets to a different server
i had the issue of only getting 8000 when not using it. but once i pointed my blade at the proxy, it is fine.