Nasdaq broke the 10,000 barrier for another new all time high for the 5th consecutive day! Armstwrong is wrong again...

The Nasdaq has set another all time high for the third day straight. Martin's followers must be wishing they had saved a little money for rope.

24765 Bullish Reversal is just a simple swing high that occurred on 4/29, look at your chart. There is no magic reversal point. Armstrong encourages not cutting a loss until the entire opposite range gets passed through (which is terrible risk:reward). But with such a wide range, it takes time to get through and by then, he has already distracted his followers with some other nonsense. He can then say that his system was technically not wrong and thus keeps claiming the invincible computer never loses while his subscribers become bagholders. This is just another one of his tricks.

I was thinking that perhaps it could be classified as same buyer and seller in attempt to generate extra feedback. Or as associate. Your evidence of them having been purchased quickly and resold from another seller from the same place was suspicious and thus they may do something about it.

I do not have an eBay account, but do you think it would be possible to report his eBay account under the case of fraudulent activity or against eBay policy?

That’s a clear example of a failed forecast. Thanks for finding that. How long was he bearish while the market was already recovering?
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I remember several people (including myself) went short a bit after the low based on his call. I managed to get out slightly above breakeven but only because I changed my mind about him, as I had lost money on his calls before. Others held for the bearish reversal and got their faces ripped off. RIP.

Doesn't anyone think it's funny how all the people that claim Armstrong saved them never actually post their trades before a market move  happens? Always hindsight.

The problem with the backtest is that there are supposed to be verifiable data. Armstrong's team does not provide historical data. Therefore the backtest but be regarded with skepticism.

If only Reversals are close to 100% reliable then any elected Reversal elected by less than 1% could be entered for a guaranteed trade, if it were the case.

Armstrong says you cannot use the GMW etc to trade as it is not a trading tool etc. Those other things simply increase contradictions and conflicting signals.

I don't see how it is controversial. It is simply impossible.

If we look only at the Reversal numbers (that you posted), please explain how you derived those numbers. The link you posted says that Armstrong 'has published the buy and sell signals for the Dow on the below long term chart.' But those are numbers that were posted after the fact so we have no way of verifying if those calls were generated in real time, or if he was using hindsight (which is more likely). Again, that is something anyone can do. It does not count as a backtest at all.

Where is Socrates not buggy, as you say? If that is the case, then the functional areas can be used and proved to be true or not, one way or another.

Also you said that it is very complex, but in the post you linked, it says 'it is super-simple to follow. You just have to consider the buy and sell signals by looking once a month at Socrates.' Please explain the super simple strategy.

Armstrong says the Reversals are based on very complex formulas based on physics and such. But if he cannot even understand the elementary laws of thermodynamics, then it all comes to naught. Posted before, but here it is: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/fake-new-silence-any-new-achievement/ please explain how it can be that he thinks there is such thing as free energy. It is physically impossible. Therefore his physics based technical analysis (which I also doubt) is inherently flawed. It breaks the laws of thermodynamics.

There is simply no evidence that Socrates works. Again, if anyone wants to PROVE (not claim) otherwise, please do so. This is an open forum.

And please explain how Armstrong claims that it is possible to break the laws of thermodynamics ala Japanese scooter guy.

The reason people are saying it was subjective was because the methodology was subjective. If you can post your criteria beforehand (eg a certain set of conditions means you will enter the trade and another set of criteria will mean you will exit), then there will be no risk of that. The problem is that when Armstrong posts his Reversals or arrays or whatever, he turns out to be wrong but he says he is right for reasons completely unrelated to his original claim...but it was too late as the trade was already entered and followers lost money.

Many have backtested and it turned out not to work for every single person on this forum except the people who claim for it to work... but there is no proof of it working. You don't even have to give us your own backtests- just the criteria will do.

If the system is buggy then everyone should simply close their subs. Armstrong has enough money that it won't affect him if he is a good trader, and that would help speed things up in development. Regardless of how complex something is, it will still work for all if the criteria itself is consistent. Additionally, the complexity still boils down to 'open trade', 'don't open trade', 'close trade', 'don't close trade'. Reversals and arrays in theory are the complexity simplified.

I know that you've made at least 1 profitable trade, as you mentioned on a Friday some time ago that the Nasdaq had elected a Bearish Reversal and the market gapped down and declined the next week. I will admit that. However, we did not know the exit point, nor did we know what the Bearish Reversal number was. This hinders objectivity. Armstrong says that trends cannot be stopped as by their nature the majority will be wrong. Therefore, posting the numbers publicly will not affect trades according to Armstrong, so anyone posting has nothing to lose. It is also not a matter of payment to Armstrong's system, as what people need is CONFIDENCE, as Armstrong says, as well as being able to decipher his convoluted writing style. If you are consistently doing it, then one would rather pay you directly instead, as every single other independent objective analysis shows Armstrong to use an inconsistent method.

Live or forecasted trade posts are the only way to verify. Even accounts showing a profit can be faked by having multiple accounts and hedging them independently. How do you account for the phantom Reversals that could not be elected during rallies? What has your experience been when encountering such scenarios? We are not asking for impossible things but rather, objective data to verify the performance of the system. This should be easy to do for a profitable Socrates user.

"This is the 86-year cycle due here in 2019. This really implies that we may see a Directional Change whereby the confidence in the future will start to decline because of political instability. Of course, we can now count on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to scream about taxing the rich and their property. The Democrats WILL look into creating a major tax increases and this will seriously harm the economy. We will see a collapse in capital investment resulting in money for 30-year mortgages drying up."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/real-estate/economic-real-estate-bubbles/

I wonder what the capital investment amounts are, where they are, etc. If any Armstrong proponent wants to translate that forecast to imply a peak in something this very year, I'd like to hear it. Can't be the real estate peak because Armstrong called that in '17: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/real-estate-in-real-terms/ Yeah you can say varies by location but as a whole it can be measured in general. That can be seen by IYR, the largest Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) ETF which made new highs just a few days ago.

He also called for a real estate high in 2015: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/real-estate-has-peaked/

Again, its a shame that Armstrong wasted his potential on this kind of stuff. If he only stayed in the realm of the historical and collected data arranged properly instead of trying to fit everything in to make assumptions and biased commentary to show 'he never loses', it might have been great. Endless refinement is needed. But as he said, the scope of a project is enormous- I suspect he skipped several large steps and then passed it off as the real thing. From what I gather, Ray Dalio is the closest thing to what Armstrong purports to be- he uses a large amount of data collected from various economies in different cycles/stages even from olden days in order to correlate current economies. His net worth is around 20 billion.

So...anyone making a consistent profit with Socrates? If so, please post live or foretasted trades.

We can see if the August 5th turning point comes to fruition.

Simple support/resistance lines with VSA candles was super good today in catching short term highs and lows, even though there was no simultaneous hit. Thing is, volume was high in some places but no line was hit, and in others, lines were hit but no volume spike, at the same time. I simply combined different timing methods for various correlated vehicles, as localized highs/lows were expected t be generated at those times as price action unfolded.

Trump was a fan of WikiLeaks at the beginning of his campaign but his recent comments show that he lied. Again. Nationalism is on the rise. People will happily ignore his flaws if it means they get what they want, even if it means throwing everyone else under the bus. This has been the case since ancient times. Being an Armstrong reader, you would know this.

I guess live trades outside Armstrong/Socrates are not allowed on this one, mod removed the other call. It's fine.

Anyway, I did not see Farage being mentioned in connection to Armstrong anywhere except on Armstrong's own website.

Armstrong loves to make various grandiose claims but there is simply no evidence for those claims. If he made a billion dollar trade, it would be simple to show documentation.

Is there any famous name/institution/fund that says anything good about Armstrong? Being as well connected as he supposedly is, you would expect a lot known people to say something about him. But there is nothing, implying that Armstrong is not a big friend or enemy- he is simply a nobody as far as the large stage is concerned. And no, his claims of CBs attending his conferences don't count. I want to see third party EVIDENCE.

I also would like to see Armstrong proponents account for Armstrong's losing claims. If one thinks that they were not losing, and he is consistently right, then it would be easy to post Socrates based trades in real time.

I get PMs sometimes about Socrates from users saying that the entire thread has become Armstrong-bashing and thus they would like to discuss Socrates trades outside of the public forum. Again though, is the bashing justified?

If there is anyone out there, even a single person, who can claim to consistently trade profitably based on Socrates, then please post real time trades/forecast based trades so the rest of us can understand. I would be willing to retract criticism if it could be shown, but no one has provided EVIDENCE in the 300 pages this farce has gone on. Thus, in the face of overwhelming EVIDENCE of 300 pages, the Socrates system is a losing strategy. In the 300 pages, has a single person become rich from the so called Holy Grail of Socrates? One would put most/all their money in a trade if it were expected to turn a profit to the degree that Socrates claims.

And Armstrong's Japanese scooter guy cannot have made a perpetual motion machine. If it were true, then Armstrong, the champion of Justice and fighter of tyranny, would have made more of these machines that could provide continual energy and thus render all the generators and power plants in the world obsolete. Energy would cost nothing, because there would be an unlimited amount. So manyproblems in the world would be solved. No more war for oil. No more villagers in poor places having to break their backs for water miles away. Etc etc. Do you not understand this basic concept? It can't be done.

Cycles picking lows/highs fails and is the biggest money loser. Aligning arrays and reversals to trade against also loses a lot of money. Reversals that keep changing (I had this problem on the investor level, as some have also had on the Pro) is also a lose money strategy. In fact, what isn't a losing way? If you find one, please post real time trades.

Then the same can be said of anyone. Anything said is indirect except if they explicitly stated something specifically, with that reasoning. Id be very interested in knowing what kind of person meets your minimum threshold for being considered racist or misogynistic, but I digress...

Being a warlord in itself isn't wrong. At the end of the day, the question is 'was the violence justified?'

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/stock-buy-backs-bad-idea/ Called for an AAPL high back in the day

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/nsa-microsoft-going-down-together/ Wrong on MSFT too

I'm sure it is all commentary though.

Aaaaaand closed. That 2 point drawdown was brutal, but it turned into a massive win. I really need to learn to trade smaller and hold for larger moves. the risk reward ratio is far better like that but I have mental deficiencies, I suppose...but, gains are gains.

Rentech has proof of their performance. I would like to see evidence of Armstrong's performance, not his claims of said performance. Otherwise, I too can claim the same.

Gumbi, how would the top of this market be shorted 'to the day'? I assume one would need to use the arrays and pick out the turning point if price comes into contact with the Bullish Reversal at that point in time, which is what I had tried to do previously. If I am not mistaken, that number is ~28,000, or that is just minimum resistance?