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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Quote
We’ve entered the FINAL PHASE of BITCOIN GAME THEORY.
And if you’re not paying attention, you’re already on the menu.
Behind closed doors in Davos, DC, Riyadh, and Shenzhen, the Strategic Bitcoin Accumulation Protocols (SBAPs) have quietly gone live.
We’re not in the retail era anymore.
We’re in the age of sovereign-grade capital war games, where every institution is scrambling to front-run their own extinction.
BlackRock isn’t “offering access to BTC.”
They’re executing a containment breach.
Fidelity isn’t “adding exposure.” They’re deploying capital like it’s a wartime bunker allocation.
You think this is just ETF hype? This is monetary espionage with a time-locked payload.
Let me spell it out:
If you are not buying Bitcoin, you are the exit liquidity.
Why?
Because every single large player is trapped in the same Nash equilibrium prison - once one starts accumulating, the others either follow… or watch their reserves go to zero in real terms.
That’s game theory. Not a meme. A DEATH SPIRAL for fiat.
You don’t need mass adoption. You need key players to blink.
And guess what?
They already have.
MicroStrategy broke the dam in 2020.
BlackRock normalized it in 2024.
The rest are now sprinting toward a 21M coin finish line that’s already 93% over.
Every sovereign wealth fund, mega-bank, pension allocator, and nation-state CFO is now asking the same question:
“How much Bitcoin do we need to not die?”
And the answer is chilling:
“Probably more than exists.”
Because here’s the catch:
Once the top 1,000 institutions own enough BTC to secure themselves, they won’t ever sell.
Not in a decade.
Not in a century.
Not even in a liquidity crisis.
They will remove Bitcoin from the float.
They will custody it in vaults.
They will collateralize the future with it.
And you?
You’ll be stuck holding melting fiat and a LinkedIn resume with 14 pronouns and no purchasing power.
This isn’t a bull market. It’s a hostile takeover.
Every block is now a battlefield.
Every coin is a geopolitical chess piece.
And every 10 minutes, you are either front-running the front-runners… or getting front-ran by it.
The clown era is over.
The musical chairs are gone.
Now it’s just you, your cold storage wallet, and the fastest capital consolidation in human history.
Bitcoin isn’t a bet. It’s your last chance.
The banks won’t save you.
Your government won’t save you.
Your diversified portfolio of ESG-approved soy index funds won’t save you.
This is ASYMMETRIC WARFARE.
This is CAPITAL INSURGENCY.
This is the FINAL MONETARY PROTOCOL.
If you understand that, buy Bitcoin.
If you don’t, pray you never meet someone who does.
And if you’re not paying attention, you’re already on the menu.
Behind closed doors in Davos, DC, Riyadh, and Shenzhen, the Strategic Bitcoin Accumulation Protocols (SBAPs) have quietly gone live.
We’re not in the retail era anymore.
We’re in the age of sovereign-grade capital war games, where every institution is scrambling to front-run their own extinction.
BlackRock isn’t “offering access to BTC.”
They’re executing a containment breach.
Fidelity isn’t “adding exposure.” They’re deploying capital like it’s a wartime bunker allocation.
You think this is just ETF hype? This is monetary espionage with a time-locked payload.
Let me spell it out:
If you are not buying Bitcoin, you are the exit liquidity.
Why?
Because every single large player is trapped in the same Nash equilibrium prison - once one starts accumulating, the others either follow… or watch their reserves go to zero in real terms.
That’s game theory. Not a meme. A DEATH SPIRAL for fiat.
You don’t need mass adoption. You need key players to blink.
And guess what?
They already have.
MicroStrategy broke the dam in 2020.
BlackRock normalized it in 2024.
The rest are now sprinting toward a 21M coin finish line that’s already 93% over.
Every sovereign wealth fund, mega-bank, pension allocator, and nation-state CFO is now asking the same question:
“How much Bitcoin do we need to not die?”
And the answer is chilling:
“Probably more than exists.”
Because here’s the catch:
Once the top 1,000 institutions own enough BTC to secure themselves, they won’t ever sell.
Not in a decade.
Not in a century.
Not even in a liquidity crisis.
They will remove Bitcoin from the float.
They will custody it in vaults.
They will collateralize the future with it.
And you?
You’ll be stuck holding melting fiat and a LinkedIn resume with 14 pronouns and no purchasing power.
This isn’t a bull market. It’s a hostile takeover.
Every block is now a battlefield.
Every coin is a geopolitical chess piece.
And every 10 minutes, you are either front-running the front-runners… or getting front-ran by it.
The clown era is over.
The musical chairs are gone.
Now it’s just you, your cold storage wallet, and the fastest capital consolidation in human history.
Bitcoin isn’t a bet. It’s your last chance.
The banks won’t save you.
Your government won’t save you.
Your diversified portfolio of ESG-approved soy index funds won’t save you.
This is ASYMMETRIC WARFARE.
This is CAPITAL INSURGENCY.
This is the FINAL MONETARY PROTOCOL.
If you understand that, buy Bitcoin.
If you don’t, pray you never meet someone who does.
X.
Quoting despite the length because it is such a powerful idea, but it's a little worrisome too, isn't it? Because this is where the idea of paper Bitcoin comes in full play.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Donald Trump said, I want the United States to do more research on Cryptocurrency and Blockchain technology. Trump thinks that crypto currency or Bitcoin is a new technology of the future. If the United States does not lead Bitcoin, then other countries will lead Bitcoin, so this valuable resource cannot be led by anyone outside the United States. Trump thinks that it is not right to lag behind in terms of technology, as it can be dangerous for the United States in terms of security and economy. Donald Trump understands that at some point the use of Bitcoin will start all over the world, so the United States will become a stronger country than other countries by buying Bitcoin and storing it.
Source of image: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1919116130515362203?t=19
Source of image: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1919116130515362203?t=19
Hooray... *sigh*... hooray... *sigh*
I mean... however you define "oldtimer" in bitcoin terms... if you are one it's hard to believe we are here. I should have foreseen how messy it would be, because that part was obvious.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by vapourminer (5)
sometimes i forget
i will remember today
how lucky i am
i will remember today
how lucky i am
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
I am getting close to switching to knots. Much thought has gone into this.
All sides of this argument have their problems. But one is best. I am still not convinced totally.
I say all sides because there are more that two for sure. Simple proof:
1. Spam is going in anyway... Let's unfilter op_return which is better than bloating utxos
2. Filters work and we need to keep protecting the small node runners.
3. Theres nothing we an really do about this. Cross your fingers! Strategic reserve?
Going to do it on one node first.
All sides of this argument have their problems. But one is best. I am still not convinced totally.
I say all sides because there are more that two for sure. Simple proof:
1. Spam is going in anyway... Let's unfilter op_return which is better than bloating utxos
2. Filters work and we need to keep protecting the small node runners.
3. Theres nothing we an really do about this. Cross your fingers! Strategic reserve?
Going to do it on one node first.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
there certainly where no weekend-pumps
Think this might be good actually.
Market inhaling for the next leg. RSI on the shorter timeframes now cooled off... Weekly still has some room to run.
Hourly...
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Op_return swirl not fading. Sigh.
One of the netter succinct things I've seen said...
One of the netter succinct things I've seen said...
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
The gold re-evaluation thing as an accounting trick
I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office
I think it was Hayes's blog
I saw it mentioned first just before Orange Man took office
I think it was Hayes's blog
Here, found it. December 18, 2024. It might have been mentioned by someone else earlier on, during sleepy Joe's reign, but it wouldn't have had the same resonance.
Currently, gold is valued at $42.22/oz on the American balance sheet. Technically speaking, the Treasury issues a gold certificate to the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which the Treasury values at $42.22/oz.
Suppose Bessent can convince the US Congress to change the statutory price of gold, thus devaluing the dollar vs. gold. In that case, the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) at the Fed receives a dollar credit, which can be spent on the economy. The larger the devaluation, the higher the TGA balance immediately grows.
This makes sense because, essentially, dollars are being created out of thin air by valuing gold at a specific price. Every $3,824/oz increase in the statutory price of gold generates a $1 trillion increase in the TGA. For example, adjusting the carrying cost to the current spot price of gold would generate a $695 billion TGA credit.
Suppose Bessent can convince the US Congress to change the statutory price of gold, thus devaluing the dollar vs. gold. In that case, the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) at the Fed receives a dollar credit, which can be spent on the economy. The larger the devaluation, the higher the TGA balance immediately grows.
This makes sense because, essentially, dollars are being created out of thin air by valuing gold at a specific price. Every $3,824/oz increase in the statutory price of gold generates a $1 trillion increase in the TGA. For example, adjusting the carrying cost to the current spot price of gold would generate a $695 billion TGA credit.
(My emphasis)
Keep in mind Bessent is the puppet master now. Powell is dubbed towel boy (or worse) because he can't and won't do much, despite the apparent position of absolute power he seems to hold. It's the curse of the Fed chair: nominally independent, but factually in serfdom to politics.
Personally, I don't think this will happen. There are subtler ways of printing without printing, and my guess is they will be picked over the very apparent and likely too noisy gold accounting trick.
Bessant is an interesting and enigmatic fellow.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by psycodad (1)
After some contemplation, reading, and a little shitposting I have come to the conclusion that the op_return saga is lose/lose and mostly meaningless. Probably.
SO many competing things are true.
I typed a LOT of stuff... and then deleted it.
Here is the thumbnail...
Core Devs seem to be run by assholes.
Core Devs are not all bad. It's an impossible job to please everyone.
Jameson Lopp is acting like a super duper asshole ("My investments in various companies are a 'rounding error' to my bitcoin holdings (lol lol))
Lopp has contributed.
Luke Dashjr is crazy and sees everything is extreme black and white. Also smart.
Luke has contributed.
Luke is the ONLY ONE contributing and guiding Knots.
His acolytes (like Bitcoinmechanic) are likely right about some things and wrong about others.
Few real bitcoinners want spam on the blockchain.
Many devs for BTC CORE think PR this AVOIDS the worst parts of spam.
BITCOIN does not care.
BITCOIN is antifragile.
If BITCOIN cannot survive this then it was doomed from day 1.
There.
I will have changed my mind and will type ENTIRELY different things tomorrow.
Maybe.
SO many competing things are true.
I typed a LOT of stuff... and then deleted it.
Here is the thumbnail...
Core Devs seem to be run by assholes.
Core Devs are not all bad. It's an impossible job to please everyone.
Jameson Lopp is acting like a super duper asshole ("My investments in various companies are a 'rounding error' to my bitcoin holdings (lol lol))
Lopp has contributed.
Luke Dashjr is crazy and sees everything is extreme black and white. Also smart.
Luke has contributed.
Luke is the ONLY ONE contributing and guiding Knots.
His acolytes (like Bitcoinmechanic) are likely right about some things and wrong about others.
Few real bitcoinners want spam on the blockchain.
Many devs for BTC CORE think PR this AVOIDS the worst parts of spam.
BITCOIN does not care.
BITCOIN is antifragile.
If BITCOIN cannot survive this then it was doomed from day 1.
There.
I will have changed my mind and will type ENTIRELY different things tomorrow.
Maybe.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by Gachapin (1)
I'll stop spamming the WO here, but last thing I want to say is I have not made up my mind as to which side of this is right.
The people trying to put this in are arguing that it would reduce spam, I think, which is interesting.
And I'm probably more likely to just not update than I would be to switch to knots because I think Luke is a little bit cuckoo too. It's interesting Satoshi didn't like the idea of there being multiple implementations.
Okay, I'm going to sign off and be quiet.
The people trying to put this in are arguing that it would reduce spam, I think, which is interesting.
And I'm probably more likely to just not update than I would be to switch to knots because I think Luke is a little bit cuckoo too. It's interesting Satoshi didn't like the idea of there being multiple implementations.
Okay, I'm going to sign off and be quiet.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
I also can't believe that I'm seriously considering switching to Knots. Considering the goofy number of nodes that I run, it's going to be a pain in
luke-jr version?
i can see this may cost me a lot of time to figure out.
I certainly think this is worth digging into, particularly if you run a node because we may have to make a decision whether we're going to go with what's happening or not. This could actually be something that causes Bitcoin core to be forked.
And at the very least, we could choose not to update nodes and advocate for the removal of the change.
To sum up what is happening... Peter Todd has made two pull requests with the same idea which is to remove the limits that nodes can set on the size of the data in op_return that lives in the mempool. This was established in the first place as a safe place that people could put arbitrary data. So, removing it would allow people to spam at least the mempool.
But what's more interesting than the technical aspects of this are the facts that there is no consensus in the GitHub discussions and a lot of very intelligent people who are important to the Bitcoin infrastructure are objecting to this. But the core devs are saying that only they get to decide what's going to go in and this is a change from the way things have worked in the past.
That is a possibly slightly inaccurate version of what I believe is happening here. But the thing I think is important is to be aware, because this could be just as big as the block size wars, but hopefully not. Hopefully it just fizzles out somehow.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Here is a link to a video that lays out something that's happening in the Core GitHub right now, which is a little bit annoying to say the least.
Is it just me or his Peter Todd always rustling up these kinds of problems?
I think Kratters conclusion, which is these things are complicated, but when you start to see conversations being shut down, it's a red flag is pretty on point.
https://youtu.be/o7kCqwR9x24
Is it just me or his Peter Todd always rustling up these kinds of problems?
I think Kratters conclusion, which is these things are complicated, but when you start to see conversations being shut down, it's a red flag is pretty on point.
https://youtu.be/o7kCqwR9x24
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Hey all guess this location:
Where is this Bitcoin bar? Has anyone ever been to a bar like this?
Where is this Bitcoin bar? Has anyone ever been to a bar like this?
Im not with the time to do a proper research but its super high chances to be in England/London, you can see the signboard behind with the GBP exchange rate.
It can be another place? Yes for sure but the odds are more in that place i think.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/kiQJ5xWZ4E
I tried to tell you guys that it no longer exists; it's a kebab shop now.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
The past few weeks in the LN space have been out of the ordinary, the forwards have been on steroids. Here are a few examples from the past couple of days
I'm over 1M sats in profits over the past 30 days, f*cking crazy.
edit: here it is
Quote
💰 Forwarded 0.20000000 bfx-lnd1 → fixedfloat.com. Earned 0.00055900 0.28% (2795)
Quote
💰 Forwarded 0.33503586 Kraken 🐙⚡️ → LOOP. Earned 0.00117028 0.35% (3493)
I'm over 1M sats in profits over the past 30 days, f*cking crazy.
edit: here it is
Kinda cool how lightning did not have to solve all the problems to be successful.
The longer I live the more I know ... all the problems will never be solved until everything is zero kelvin.
I can confirm that the word on the street with a lot of people out there is that the stolen bitcoin is making its way into Monero.
But I also agree that this seems like sort of a bad move for the thief. They could do this in much more sneaky ways, I think. But maybe they think differently.
I miss the Monero community of old, honestly. It's one reason I don't post here much anymore. I feel like the community today has become insufferable. A constant, screed against Bitcoin maxis, and such. And a lot of arguments about how Bitcoin is a failure and Monero is the true bitcoin, etc. etc.
That said, if what we are seeing right now is digital money laundering, this may have an impact on the future for our little buddy.
But I also agree that this seems like sort of a bad move for the thief. They could do this in much more sneaky ways, I think. But maybe they think differently.
I miss the Monero community of old, honestly. It's one reason I don't post here much anymore. I feel like the community today has become insufferable. A constant, screed against Bitcoin maxis, and such. And a lot of arguments about how Bitcoin is a failure and Monero is the true bitcoin, etc. etc.
That said, if what we are seeing right now is digital money laundering, this may have an impact on the future for our little buddy.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
It seems like every week lately a new country has their own "strategy" with today's being Brazil. It is pretty obvious what is happening at this point. Back before the price ruled everything, these entities would be considered an attack on Bitcoin. Now, they are the bribe that gets our community to sell out the goal for. Being totally honest, I don't even know what the goal of Bitcoin is anymore. Certainly not P2P currency, or removing power from central banks... Who cares though right? Bitcoin to the moon! We're all getting lambos!
Your post is food for thought.
My own take - but I haven't thought about it much yet, honestly.
WTF were we expecting? The best asset in the world left to a bunch of cyberpunks smart enough to see the truth back in the day? Of course human greed - of which corporate greed is the more structured incarnation - would take over. OK, maybe the P2P road seems a bit troublesome right now. However, Lightning does work, and I'm using a nifty app that moves sats in seconds, no questions asked.
Apart from P2P currency, the goal of bitcoin could still be protecting money from evaporation via inflation. And in due time, possibly disciplining rogue central banks that solve each and every problem by what they know best how to do - namely printing. Gold failed at that, after Nixon blah blah blah, and it is too easy to confiscate: remember Eisenhower - and Hitler and Mussolini and all the other warmongers thirsty for war funds before that, back to the Incas maybe?
Now bitcoin has this thing about private keys and boating accidents that makes it much, much better than gold at establishing a baseline for value. That might be the ultimate goal.
Interesting times indeed.
I find this topic to be extremely interesting for several reasons.
Obviously, there are risks associated with these giant players coming into Bitcoin. I think the main attack vectors end up being two things. First of all, rehypothication, and second of all, honeypot custodians.
But two popular narratives running right now kind of bug me.
The idea that it's somehow negative for certain people, organizations or even nations to be buying it is against the ideal of what Bitcoin is in the first place. There can be and should be no limits on who can own it. That is something we should be on the lookout for. And if these plays are a plan towards that end, then yes, this could turn out badly.
The second one is the fact that we seem to have given up on Bitcoin as a currency. My problem with that narrative is I feel it is too short-sighted. I think Bitcoin has to establish itself as an asset with actual value before people will start using it for trade. Unlike Fiat, they're not guns behind it. So people can't be forced to use it to pay taxes or anything else.
But I do think people like us feeling warning flags going up makes sense because there are a lot of ways this can go sideways and there may even be ways for Bitcoin to be tamed, as Charlie Munger said, some time back.
Finally, we are also in uncharted waters. We've never seen an asset like this before as a race and whether we follow Gresham's Law or Thier's Law or one for a while and then the other. I mean, we've never seen this type of asset until now on the world stage. What's going to happen? It's interesting to speculate.
Good discussion though.
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by JimboToronto (5) ,psycodad (1) ,vapourminer (1) ,xhomerx10 (1) ,JayJuanGee (1) ,OutOfMemory (1)
Evidently a lot of coffee knowledge in this group.
I roast. All coffee I drink, I will have roasted. For years. Well... I also will buy a cup here and there.
I tend to roast to smell/color. But my sweetspot probably runs a fairly short time after first crack.
That said, though I do agree that the darker you roast the less you get to taste the individual bean, I also enjoy roasts close to, or at second crack with the right coffee. I just think of the different roast levels as different coffee. I am not out to win a contest (though many of my roasts are worth considering in my opinion).
I will never roast a high quality Ethiopian all that far past first crack. I want to taste the true nature of the bean... the berries etc. But I also enjoy very dark roasts at times as well. A very dark roast particularly pressed in the right preparation can be quite magical... and also might be a better late day or evening drink since it will have less caffeine.
But my go-to would be a medium or light roast. And if I had a limited amount of an exotic bean I would almost always roast on the lighter side.
That said there are STILL exceptions. Now and then I will buy "monsooned" coffee from Kerala India. This coffee is fairly exotic, but I roast it quite darkly, as that is it's best form in my humble opinion.
Coffee makes life good. I raise my mug to you all. We sip together...
Also bitcoin is just getting started.
I roast. All coffee I drink, I will have roasted. For years. Well... I also will buy a cup here and there.
I tend to roast to smell/color. But my sweetspot probably runs a fairly short time after first crack.
That said, though I do agree that the darker you roast the less you get to taste the individual bean, I also enjoy roasts close to, or at second crack with the right coffee. I just think of the different roast levels as different coffee. I am not out to win a contest (though many of my roasts are worth considering in my opinion).
I will never roast a high quality Ethiopian all that far past first crack. I want to taste the true nature of the bean... the berries etc. But I also enjoy very dark roasts at times as well. A very dark roast particularly pressed in the right preparation can be quite magical... and also might be a better late day or evening drink since it will have less caffeine.
But my go-to would be a medium or light roast. And if I had a limited amount of an exotic bean I would almost always roast on the lighter side.
That said there are STILL exceptions. Now and then I will buy "monsooned" coffee from Kerala India. This coffee is fairly exotic, but I roast it quite darkly, as that is it's best form in my humble opinion.
Coffee makes life good. I raise my mug to you all. We sip together...
Also bitcoin is just getting started.