Does Socrates or anyone here know when this market melt-up is going to end? Of course Marty will have called it in hindsight. I'm thinking a post New Years correction a-la 2018. What's the new XIV to throw puts on?

Hesitant about the book as someone else mentioned the Table of Contents dies look like a collection of blog posts. Some glorious bastard posted the Greatest Trade of the Century on this board and 90% of it was wrapped in Roman and Greek history going so far off track from anything related to financial advice you just skip through to the last 10 or so pages. I guess in that one, his overarching theory was private vs public waves. Should maybe have been presented as that rather than a long history lesson littered with typos. That was sold to people believing they were buying financial advice.

Looking at the Table of Contents shows the book to be another irrelevant history lesson which I'd be surprised if it stayed on track with the title. The self-published nature says it all. This will be a $100 typo filled book. He wants it as a "textbook" like everything he writes in there is objective fact and it just isn't. He won't ever submit anything for peer review. He says the Government really jailed him to get Socrates. Socrates is the Theranos of financial AI. That is simply why nothing he does can ever get a closer look.

I'd be interested if anyone can lend insight into the Repo Crisis and what Marty specifically has to say. From what I've pieced together JPM pulled out of REPO and left a huge cash hole which no Bank would fill due to Deutsche Bank's problems? 

Marty claims he's been running around recently and there's an imminent crisis. I think $DB which hit new lows today is quietly sinking into the abyss.

Thanks to whoever posted the overlays with the forecast arrays - long term they don't seem too bad as predictors but not concrete.

Appreciate the posts on the Soc trade progress also. Thank you for stepping up to the plate and sharing with us what you have so far.

Are the private blogs worth anything? What does he say is generally going on / going to happen?

Keep the board alive, guys!

Ok so after reading through all this it's apparent that Socrates is a shifting goalposts only right in hindsight sometimes program. For trading.

Long term calls may be a little more interesting since he is talking about the next cycle being commodities and inflation come the ECM. Some of his MACRO calls have been spot on. His writings from prison were scathingly entertaining but he was able to make good macro calls even from prison. However this isn't Socrates, this is MA. I'd like to separate Soc from MA in this context. He bases his long term calls off Socrates (maybe?) but again the evidence is flimsy at best. Sometimes, more so in the past, he hits it right on the head. But lately he's been not calling the lows and telling you to sell while we blow through ATHs. He is human after all and may start getting to be out of touch.

I'm interested in his book. He also mentioned in a very recent blog about the loss of the "feel" of trading and how he wants to bring that back. Also mentioned integrating his systems with medical technology. I'm all for progress the private market will sort and figure out what it's worth.

He shouldn't leave without giving up whatever secrets he's discovered. That would be a shame, if any of you still believe he has the "silver bullet" as one of the posters above mentioned. If he claims to have the secret code to everything why not share it post mortem at the very least. If what he has is so profound he should write papers. We're still waiting for Geometry of Time.

MA, we know you read this thread. Please continue blogging on law and politics, and MACRO. Your pieces on Assets vs Money, and how interest rates rising leads to a rising stock market, were pretty prizeworthy reads. Your article about Elizabeth Warren's Wealth Tax singularly destroys the idea. Your level of knowledge in law in history and the perspectives you have are sometimes very fresh. We all remember the gaffe with the prostitution we forgive you.

Please finish your books MA and spell out the hidden secrets. Like you said only 10% of the population will listen anyway =P 

Hey all, just want to let you know that I lurk this board frequently and have been super busy with other things and haven't been able to post or comment on anything really.

It seems like there is some agreement on how to interpret Socrates and I believe we can hammer out what works and what doesn't. The reversals seem pretty legit. Is it worth the $ just for the reversals? I feel like we're missing the critical TIME element which is supposed to make Socrates stand above the others. We're either interpreting the forecast arrays and GMW incorrectly, or they're just random noise that gets it right once in a blue moon. Like the rest of you I am suspicious of the claim that they monitor "global capital flows" unless what he really means is bond volume since it makes up the lion's share of transactions as he mentions frequently.

That being said, the May "turning point" basically came to fruition the moment Trump made the May 5 tweet. There is something to be said about the alignment of that since he could easily claim in a blog post that his computer picked the turning point and wouldn't have any clue about tariff increases so therefore Socrates is magic. However I do still see that as a strange coincidence (which we have all seen often) and the testable part is now July. Both were "turning points" that doesn't mean May was the low and July the high. It would very well be that May is when it "turns" down and July is when it "turns" back up. In that sense it doesn't necessarily mean an absolute low or high - only when the trend is due to change. Again the INTERPRETATION is what may be wrong and not Socrates, but I don't even have a sub *shame* I get the info vicariously through this forum. 

There is also common agreement here that he likes to highlight when he's right and not when he's wrong, or missed a call like the massive rally from December-Apr. It's like you're always on the fence because sometimes you say to yourself "whoa he nailed it" and other times you say to yourself "he's exaggerating". Maybe it's a bit of both. That's fine for a PERSON. The same standard doesn't apply to a SERVICE with subscription $. Again he may be actually giving you Socrates but the missing piece here is how to interpret the TIME targets.

As far as my trades I saw his regular blog post with the downtrend lines for DB so I got Jan 2020 $5 puts @ $0.24. Now trading $0.31. Got a bunch won't reveal the number. My YINN $26 calls 10/2019 expiry that I bought in March cratered 90% and as far as I can see it's a total loss and I still have 4 months and 3 weeks to at least recover the losses before the Theta kills it for good.

Bike your strategy seems solid by the way. How can we talk outside this board and chat trades? (also I'm in agreement that Strike is the MAn himself =)

Ok guys. We're about to hit 27K.

What does Marty's magic machine say? /s

For real though. I'm personally using fibonacci fan projections and they show 28k as resistance with minimum 27.2k. What happens then, will it be another pullback like the last 2x we hit these levels, or will the Euro elections cause a melt-up?

Currently have my chips down on October $26 YINN calls for a trade deal (eventually), and I believe I caught the falling knife buying XLV on Thursday morning.

The XLV precisely hit the fib pivots on all 3 legs down. The precision is becoming something more than just a curiosity. I've had my eye on this for some time and from what I've seen it's very accurate almost matching Marty's/Socrates's reversals.

They continue to say the reversals are generated from "physics" - even the charlatan in the earlier post this week. Not even gonna bother looking up his name.

Well, is this some fucking mystery or is it possible given the information freely available it's possible we can reconstruct Socrates on our own?

Unless Marty has some secret to the universe that nobody else knows about, shouldn't it be entirely plausible to use chaos theory, complex dynamics, gravity, thermodynamics, electrodynamics, etc and computers to simulate some sort of connection between all this?

One thing I WHOLLY agree with Marty about is that markets are absolutely FRACTAL and self-referencing (relativity).

Anyway, main question is what to do when we (probably) hit 27K? Fibs say 28k+.

Appreciate bike, MA, and the others that regularly contribute and keep alive this thread.

Happy Easter 

Armstrong may be onto something when it comes to the rates in his recent post. While the US may have a dip, our GDP will be positive while the rest of the world turns down.

If we do indeed have a liquidity crisis in short term paper then the writing really is on the wall - the rush is into US paper.

Looks like a classic slingshot move to me. This is the final rush into US bonds while the world economy goes back into recession without ever getting out of the last one. Just like a slingshot everyone will be short rates and then get pwnd when rates surge.

Can the guy who was disappointed with Socrates saying it was a waste of money above PLEASE post the last 30 days or so of Private Blog posts for us plebs?

Well, hopefully someone generous on this forum will post the Private Blogs. They DID have some specific numbers and analysis of the arrays which, when I had access, were helpful in conjunction with my OWN system (Bike would agree).

Funny how he's giving Socrates credit for the Biogen drop - but he did clarify that the GMW is to be used with reversals and arrays and whatever else you're doing to give you more conviction with your trade. Maybe we expect too much from Socrates - there will NEVER be a perfectly working computer that says "buy here sell here". If his system is a good TOOL then he should market it as such. It surely isn't the end all be all and from what I've heard/seen it isn't some magical perfect system...which brings into question his claim that he went to jail because "the government wanted the source code".

He may seem like a sleazy salesman from NJ, but he apparently has influence around the world, not everywhere but in some places, and I do believe he is extremely gifted in economics, history, and law. Just not 100% buying that Socrates is predicting the world and it's worth $150/mo for vague analysis and shifting goalposts.

Anyway, since we don't have the private blogs, I'm curious what you guys think is going on in the market. I was doing chart studies today and see a double bottom basically everywhere about the end of Oct and the beginning of Jan. Now we're reaching serious breakout levels. I'm wondering if hard BREXIT will actually happen and the melt-up is the foreign money buying shares. Today, Apple went up nearly 4%. SOXL is about to retest ATHs. Foreigners buying US stocks, I'd assume, would go after the big names and the big tech companies first.

Should we be buying tech/semis and ride this wave? Is this what the Private Blog was about? Maybe foreigners are pouring into the US in anticipation of the May elections and the bleak outlook for the EU? Or, conversely, are we being faked out by the surge we've seen lately?

Look forward to your insights and please keep this board alive. For the love of God can someone PLEASE give us the Private posts?

You're seriously overlooking the fact that the average guy can get 100x leverage through options, on a 3x leveraged ETF, making an effective 300x leverage on a move. Those who had puts in XIV back in Jan 18 have been sitting pretty. One fund made the headlines for making 8000%+ on such a trade.

God bless the USA and the stock market rules. Any moron can get options approval.

Shit. That was more than I expected for a response. I never really thought of the US "dying" like that but it makes total sense. The rush to the US and the inevitable crash just like any rush before it, no matter the scale (looking @ BTC lol). When something goes up that much that quickly, it's bound to fall to gravity. Like Marty always says, the top is in when everyone who wants already has and the buyers dry up. So that's how the US ends huh ='(

If we're not all on yachts after this trade of the century, I'm guessing China is the next best place to go with your assets in the wake of all this?

Some excerpts from recent posts:

"We are in negotiations with a government wealth fund that wants, not just to use the model, they want to open it up to accepting money to manage for individuals."

"The US sharemarket rally has taken place on the massive capital inflows from Europe seeking safety from the political chaos. So while Americans were selling everything they could get their hands on as forecasts of a major crash loomed, the Europeans were saying thank you very much for the bargains."

A couple days later this shows up on ZH: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-27/when-everyone-else-was-liquidating-stocks-worlds-biggest-wealth-fund-was-buying-it

There are only 2 major Sovereign Wealth Funds that I can think of - Singapore and Norway (does SA have one?). Looks like Marty's advising Norway (although his role could be GREATLY exaggerated).

"The Economic Confidence Model turns in January 2020. We are preparing for the Greatest Trade of the Century, but we must look at this from everyone’s point of view which is colored through the looking glass of currency. But to trade this opportunity, DEMANDS you must have the CONFIDENCE to pull the trigger. To survive the next two years, it requires a clear understanding of how the system works which is confirmed by each market.

The failure to understand how we are all connected will result in you losing at the end of the sequence. The last domino will be your fate. Without comprehension, you will never see it coming. You need to understand the world as a hedge fund manager – not a domestic manager blind to everything outside of his domain."

Norway has a strong Kronr and is in prime position for a commodities boom with their oil reserves, seed banks, fertilizer companies, etc.

Has ANYONE gotten insight into this TRADE OF THE CENTURY he's hyping up? This is a sales tactic for sure, but I wonder if we can discuss and maybe decode what he means by the above. It seems like it's not so clear-cut that if you're an American with dollars and stocks you'll be on the right side of this trade.

If the Euro goes to shit, the Dollar will soar in value but does that necessarily mean stocks will decline and prices fall? How could the TRADE OF THE CENTURY be to hold onto your cash under a mattress?

Or...could it be he's just pulling us along hoping we shell out $5k for his conference?

Not everything he says is without merit, or insight. He wrote extensively today about going to Germany and how they realize the huge mess they're in. I don't doubt he visits institutions and banks, even Central Banks like he claims. But as a supposed "Philosopher", literally a lover of knowledge, you would think that he would be more willing to share this secret knowledge of his to the rest of the world.

Again, if his system was so awesome, and worked so well with so many markets/climate/war/politics, then why not submit a paper for review? If he goes to the grave without telling the "secret" to his Socrates system, it's entirely possible somebody down the line would be able to figure it out on their own. However it could take 100 years for such a person to emerge - that would be selfish of Marty the philosopher to have the world "in darkness" because he refused to leave behind the instruction manual.

So, yeah, what do you guys think is the TRADE OF THE CENTURY?

Well I got into MA some years ago and generally find his insights helpful. I used to be in the Peter Schiff camp, and believing their argument about about the Fed, Fiat money, Inflation, all that nonsense.

MA's articles do a GREAT job at explaining the complexities behind inflation/deflation, assets/money, the Fed, Interest Rates, and his writings on Law and History are really worth the read. He really did help steer my thinking away from the dogmatic Ron Paul / Peter Schiff people into something that made intuitive sense when considering all the factors (not just domestic) that drive trends. Gold stopped rising in 2011 and only MA said so. Schiff et al kept and KEEP pushing the "gold is money" and "this is a buying opportunity" because they cannot say otherwise...for 8 years now. 

I've also read through all his histories of each Roman Emperor. The truth is, the man's writings are why I visit the blog every day. I think we can all agree that it's impossible to be a real trader without knowing whats going on in the world and having some curiosity/observation about how humans are going to react to something. All traders do things in anticipation. For example, when Obama was in office, every school shooting was a good opportunity to buy SWHC and RGR (I think RGR is now AOBC??) the idea is that if you know how people are going to react then you can get ahead of the pack. The "rainforest" and "spooked zebra" concepts that MA mentions really help you see the world differently.

His Market Talk posts are probably the shortest, trader-oriented recaps of the day that I've ever read. Give him credit, you know he does those by hand every day. It's a one stop shop for China news, trade numbers, everything global of significance.

However, as far as his trading advice is concerned, well - it just isn't trading advice. "This week should be the high, and if it's not, then it could be next week, unless there is a PANIC CYCLE where we turn down or up next week, or next week could be the low, or this week could be the low. The support for the DOW lies at 6500 based off the March 2009 low and resistance starts at 60k. Please pay me $150 for this advice".

I really wonder if that "PREMIUM Blog" post actually cuts out any of the bullshit. Can someone PLEASE post?

I'm on this guy's side when it comes to Politics, Law, History (especially economic history), but when it comes to his trading advice he never really spells out what to do. I understand it's a dynamic and ever-changing thing where nothing is set in stone, but, even looking at his weekly arrays that he posts on the regular blog...if he posts one in Mid-April he will show an array, and then if he posts at the end of April the array in NO WAY matches up to the array from 2 weeks ago.

His reversals seem to be pretty good, but that's not worth $150 since they are basically the Fibonacci pivots.

And, yes, I have serious doubt about the sophistication of his system. He didn't go to jail because his source code somehow contains the key to the universe. I wonder if he will ever finish his "Geometry of Time" magnum opus. Or leave the world in the dark with his great secret to how his system works. If he really wanted to be taken seriously he'd have something submitted for academic review.

Personally feel bad for people who shelled out $500+ for his reports to get a rehash of his old articles. Did the Vertical Market report really give the buyers the January 2018 top?

He can be right sometimes, but he always complains how gold-bugs never say they were wrong, and yet he hypocritically explains how you just didn't his cryptic post correctly. Never admits, "Damn guys, that one was on me". I don't think he's broke - he clearly has that bust of Caesar hidden somewhere. I think he's in it for the attention and who knows if there's any real "genius" behind his magic system, but since he's given it to us it isn't the best thing since sliced bread like he promised.

Still going to read the blog every day for good reading. When his numbers concur with mine then I feel better about entering a position.   

Been having serious FOMO after my quick flip almost a month ago (which Bike and I successfully traded). Got a new job that doesn't really afford me time to keep up with the trading day as it goes.

However, I agree with Bike that Marty and his system are on to SOMETHING and they work very well in CONJUNCTION with your own system if you have it established. Maybe Marty should just market Socrates like it should be - a supplement to what you already have in place. Kind of like just another reference point, because like Bike says (which I want to hear more specifics about), when you go through several different methodologies and systems, and they all agree on a certain target, then it's a pretty damn good bet.

What do the PROS use that is different than what we use, really? They look at OHLC and candlesticks and MACD and moving averages, volume, fib pivots, elliott wave, fucking tarot cards and horoscopes...WE ALL LOOK AT THE SAME SHIT.   

Looking hard this weekend at the most beaten-up Chinese ETFs. Once the tariffs are lifted (and it looks to be soon) the Chinese market is going to fucking explode.

Can someone PLEASE post the new private blog? Lost my free access after the recent updates. Without those arrays specifically I'm back to the drawing board but that's OK because my own system worked. I'll admit, though, that it worked better with the private blog numbers and arrays. 

Where do the arrays stand now? We're floating just below 25.1k. Also, can someone quantify this "trade of the century"?. I'm guessing when bonds are worthless the game is up, and real (movable) assets take off? Aka US shares? He's always harping on the Russel 2000. Anyone have insights? 

My SPY puts expire 2/1 (260 strike). Should definitely have gotten longer term puts because the Theta is starting to eat up and I don't think it's going down as hard as last time. Just like Marty said, the main thrust downward is in the initial window. Best to close the position tomorrow and pocket a nice gain and pray it goes down enough to outweigh the Theta. Worst that can happen is I get a little less than the 120% unrealized I have right now. Even closing at 80% profit is amazing to do if you do it on a semi-reliable basis. I don't trade often - I only pull the trigger when I "feel" it. Watch charts every day and never miss a beat on the patient. Hard to explain, but all the signs have to line up (of course I use TA) before I fire because options are fuck or walk.

I bought calls last Wednesday (24.1k so I knew gap up to try 25k), sold Friday (Marty said the high would be Friday close or Tues open), bought puts @ close Friday. I bagged 100%+ on both trades.

Bike, this is one of those "goosebumps" calls. They say you can't time the market but Socrates and I (and I'm guessing you too) just did it twice!

Thekees - I can't remember the last time he gave actual trading advice, either, except maybe the raw SELL GS @ $159 post he made.

I wonder if Marty is becoming more clear, or if after all these years, I'm finally understanding him and piecing together what he says. Whatever the case, you guys in this board are tremendous help.

I'm starting to piece it together, too, and despite the naysayers in this blog there is a method to the madness, goosebumps and all once you have that moment of clarity. For me this trade just FELT right. Exuberance when the market was supposed to drop, and now everyone expects follow-through next week. But like Marty said, we're out of time. Somehow it feels like that's right (BLOOD MOON /s).

Also note I remember reading on the pvt blog somewhere that the Euro would retest 113.1 and then the Euro's decline and the Dow's advance would "flip" going into next week, again lining up with the 21st. Euro action on Fri did almost exactly that. HOW?? 

Bike - I get the private blog posts too, but only the private blog and not Soc. Please don't leave this board - I've been lurking here for months and people like you are why I visit. We need to keep this discussion objective and you do a great job at it. You constantly say Soc's reversals are "helpful" with your other strategies...care to elaborate?

From just reading the Private posts, Marty put up the weekly bullish at 24089, so on Wednesday morning I went balls deep knowing the next reversal wasn't until 25k. I thought, "After all these years of piecing together his cryptic stuff, am I understanding correctly that he's saying we're going to rally almost 900 pts into the 21st?" That was a great call by Marty. I sold my SPY calls this afternoon for a nice 120% gain.

Since he said the high would be Friday close or Tuesday morning latest, I bought SPY puts @ close. Let's see if he's "the oracle" after all.

I'm amazed that he said Friday would close at the high or Tuesday would open at the high but then that would be it. That is REALLY specific from Marty. If the market opened positive and then closed negative on Fri that would have killed his credibility on my part.

I also noticed that his reversals line up, nearly identically, with Fibonacci fan projections and pivots/retracements. Any thoughts, gentlemen?