I am neither bull nor bear, and relatively new at this.  But it seems to me, given the insane price rise lately, and the fact that very few people appear to think it could fall as far as the April ATH, that there is a decent chance it could fall that far or further.  Any number of (perceived) bad news items such as last week's China news could trigger it, and the very low volume provides further reason to think it could happen.  Ultimately, the value of btc will be determined by how widely it is actually used as money for transactions.  By that measure, it seems quite overvalued at $1000, since I doubt its use has increased tenfold in the last couple of months.  Overshooting on a correction could easily bring it back to $266, imo.  That is not a prediction, and I would not be surprised to see it at $2000 in January.  But I am not at all confident that $600 is the new floor.

No he won't, not if we all keep up the pressure.  It seems clear at this point that TF cannot justify the measly payouts offered thus far on the basis of 4100 stolen btc.  Many more than that were on deposit at CL and many of those 4100 have been written off by depositors who settled such as Dumbfruit. I think the points made about a civil lawsuit above are valid, and I think the best bet, if TF doesn't cooperate, is pressing forward with criminal charges.  From what I know about the case, I'm pretty sure a decent lawyer could make a very strong case for conviction.  If TF is really 18, he's facing the prospect of the best years of his life behind bars.  That 's ample motivation to come clean.

Tradefortress, some of us were willing to give you the benefit of the doubt at the beginning, but no longer.  The only way you're going to satisfy us at this point -short of refunding 100%-  is with complete transparency.  Speaking for myself, I have no problem accepting a fair cut if there was a genuine theft -even, in that case, setting aside your criminal negligence.  But you're going to have to justify whatever percentage refund you offer with some concrete and verifiable figures.  Otherwise, I'm operating on the assumption that you're a criminal. 

Please add me to this list of those interested in class-action. 

Still in! No intention to settle:

Coinlenders balance (with interest): 29 btc

+1  If you are a relatively small investor (less than 50 btc), unless you are desperate for funds I would strongly resist the urge to settle for a 80-90% haircut. 

TF, you have not replied to either of my emails.  I would repeat a question asked above.  Could you please tell your investors what alternatives there are to settling for a steep haircut now?  Can we expect to get a larger percentage if we wait awhile as loans are repaid?   

Are you guys serious or sarcastic? (serious question, i don't want to sound rude)
[/quote]

Dead serious.  If you notice, most of the people posting useless smug blather either aren't on the list at the beginning of this thread or have very little at stake.  Many of us who do realize that our best chance of getting it back is trying to make sure CL doesn't go under.  Of course we don't *know* that TF isn't a scammer, but neither do others *know* that he is.  Honest people can disagree, but calling someone a sockpuppet just because he disagrees with you is just being an asshole.  The way I figure it, if we can get anywhere near 4000 coins committed to staying in CL -in exchange for veriable assurances that we're likely to be paid back in full later on- and TF still doesn't respond, then we can be pretty confident he's scamming us or fucked up so badly that it doesn't matter.  And then we can go after him for whatever we can get.

+1

You're doing a great job, Dumbfruit.  I'm a dual US/NZ citizen, and I'll certainly join you in a class-action if it comes to that.  But I don't think the time is now.  Frankly, at this point I think the money would be better spent on a good private investigator in Sydney.  I'd' still like to know if anyone on this forum knows TF's name.

TF: It should be pretty clear to you that time is running out.  I still stand by what I told you in an email: I'm willing to leave my coins in longer-term with some verifiable assurances that I'm likely to be paid back in full later on.  By my count, there are some 1500 coins potentially available to you (from JohnHarmer, TomJeff and other relative minnows like me) should you reach out directly to your investors.  We're by far the best friends you have here   

Finally, @ all the annoying dickheads who think that anyone who disagrees with a tar-and-feather approach to this whole fiasco is a shill for Tradefortress....
STFU!!

Quote from: TomJeff on November 13, 2013, 04:55:54 AM

I can tell you personally that if I got 100% of my BTC refunded (or at least a binding promise to refund 100% of my principal in a year while still earning interest on it) and CL overhauled their security (a third-party security audit would go the distance to prove that fact to me) then I'd happily keep all my current deposit

+1

I told TF exactly this in an email several days ago (I have not heard back).  It might be useful to start a list of CL creditors who feel the same way (Dumbfruit, if you'd rather it not clutter up this thread I can start a new one).  First, it seems clear that no one should be forced to take a loss: each and every creditor should have the option of keeping their coins in CL for a time and being paid back in full (with interest of course) at some later date.  Second, however, if enough CL creditors feel this way (particularly some of the large holders; I think the top ten largest creditors account for some 70% of the total on CL; and TomJeff obviously accounts for most of the coins on Inputs), then there should be no grounds for TF to refuse the offer.  And every reason for him to accept, if his business model is any good.  Of course, added security -and transparency- is crucial.  But my guess is that a lot of CL creditors feel the same way.  It would be good to know...

Coinlenders

goodtimes73: 28.58: 0: U

Very smug of you.

It has nothing to do with being nice.  TF should honor his debts, even if he can't discharge them fully right now.  If he can only offer partial refunds right now, every depositor should be given the option of leaving their coins in and being made whole at a later date.  That's the option I would choose.

Hello, if someone could please send this to Dumbfruit, I would appreciate it (I am a newbie and his pm is hidden from me).  I currently have a 28.58 btc balance on Coinlenders (under the name goodtimes 73), which does not include about 1btc in owed interest.  I am an unverified member of CL.  I have emailed Tradefortress several days ago but have not heard back yet.  Obviously I think he should pay all CL customers back, principal and interest.  Other that that, here is what I make of the current situation. 

TF obviously messed up, but his behaviour is highly unusual for an outright scammer.  I have read through most of the threads related to him, and (I think), all of them related to CL and inputs.  I have yet to see a single person definitively ID Tradefortress.  That tells me that he is still basically anonymous.  Yet, many people have reported receiving at least partial or even full refunds.  What outright scammer who has managed to remain anonymous offers refunds?  He could have absconded with the $1M + and never been heard from again.  It just doesn't make sense.  So, I think he is trying to make the best of a very bad situation.  I have no idea how much we might be offered back, but I would be surprised if it is nothing.  However, the situtation is basically a bank-run if everyone asks for their money back at once.  That is why I said to TF: I am willing to leave my coins in CL (assuming it stays open) to allow you to try to collect loans and so forth to pay me back in full.  From what I can tell, many other CL customers feel this way.  If so, we should make it clear that we do.  It seems that is by far the best chance of us getting paid back in full.  Of course, we should continue to be paid interest on our deposits.  At what rate, I don't know; that is negotiable.  I know many people here will find this naive in the extreme, but again, if you don't think TF is a scammer, this seems to me to be the best chance of getting paid back in full.