You assume no one will follow but https://coin.dance/blocks shows there's plenty of miners who support big blocks and would gladly follow this fork. It's not a binary outcome either, there will be both users and hashrate moving over. And it uses the existing blockchain so all current users already have a stake in this UAHF.

Both distribution of hashrate and brute hashrate matter when it comes to trusting the network. A coin that's SHA256 based is easily attacked if it hasn't got sufficient hashrate to fend off established miners from other networks with significantly higher hashrates. And if you sell your 90% hypothetical stake of coins all you're doing is redistributing them and altering a price, this has zero effect on the direction of the protocol.

Economic majority doesn't mean shit unless they put their money where their mouths are and start mining. You could have 90% of all BTC and be completely unable to stop a hardfork because it's secured by proof of work, not proof of stake. And it's the hashrate that gives users the ability to trust the network. A minority fork is worthless because it's easily subject to a 51% attack giving users no reason to trust it.

Majority hashrate + original blockchain = Bitcoin

This isn't going to be an altcoin, it's going to be the bitcoin we should have had 3 years ago before the push for off chain transactions became paramount at the detriment of all other improvements. And the absolute best part of this is:


All the pro's of segwit as well as larger blocks and lower fees, and even better this helps decentralisation as the mempool will shrink back down allowing nodes to get by on less ram.

Found a bug with the volume chart. Showing 1000 volume on 3M chart but nothing notable on the 5M chart.

http://imgur.com/03P23K6
http://imgur.com/sdoIR87

Apple have been banning bitcoin based wallet apps for ages, nothing new there so that's not the reason.

If I accept the refund now does that mean I don't have the option of funding the prototype board? Need to know more about this board, what chip is it being designed for, asicminer gen 3??
Any details on refunding shipping costs?

Not a wise decision to screw over or piss off a group of people who are becoming increasingly wealthy. Eventually the cost of legal action will be substantially less than what is owed to an individual in this group buy. I'm sure those who ordered large orders already have the means to pursue legal action. The whole "I'm too busy organizing things" line has lost all meaning as you've had more than enough time to sort things out by now.

The volume of trade around the 1200 mark is low compared to the significant volume around the 450 - 900 mark.
Some of the bag holders at 900 will dump and lose out but most will either hold, or buy more, which has been proven by the strong floor at 460, was tested on the way up and on the way down.

1) Never goto sleep or turn your back on an open trade, always close out what you want to be holding, personally I hold btc.
2) Set a mental stop loss and never violate it. If the price goes above or below your stop loss, you were wrong, put your pride aside and close your trade for a small loss rather than a massive loss.
3) Don't get greedy, if you start to become shocked at how much profit you've made from a trade, it's time to close that trade. If you're feeling it, others already are and they're ready to buy back in which will wipe out all of your profits far more quickly than they took to accumulate.
4) Where possible use limit orders because they maximize your profits and provide you a bigger safety buffer if you're wrong.
5) Study study study. Learn how to analyze charts, volume, orderbooks, ema's, stochastics, macd, etc.
6) Risk / Reward. How much do you stand to lose on a trade vs how much you stand to gain. Only go in on trades that you deem an acceptable risk. 1:1 is not good enough as it's no better than flipping a coin.
7) Study up, if you only just learned what a wall is then you have a long way to go. Plenty of awesome guides on youtube and a lot of good books to read on the subject.

S-Curve adoption, the best kind of adoption

I think you'll be hard pressed to find anyone in this group buy who would give avalon a single satoshi for anything, they're the entire reason this group buy imploded on itself in the first place.

It's impossible for us to get 100% of our refund back because steamboat converted some btc --> usd to cover the parts costs, exactly how much he had swapped over is anyone's guess and is why a bit of transparency would go a long way. But with the way the price is sky rocketing at the moment an update from steamboat would be good. I doubt he'll try to scam us, if you look at his replies in this thread and emails everything has been done to the best of his ability and quite professionally so I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the reason we're not getting any update is because he's flat out organising and shipping miners for those who accepted them.

The last update from steamboat via email was only 11 days ago but for those who are wondering:

"Many of you are still waiting for information regarding the assembly refund process. We understand the wait is aggravating, and appreciate your patience in this matter. Our resources are finite, and the work load for this project has increased substantially due to reasons outside our control. We will be publishing more information when we are able, and can assure you the solution will be as fair as possible. You will not be punished for our lack of timely response in this matter."

Correct me if I'm wrong but this is what I've gathered from following this thread regarding the assembly / parts / shipping refunds.

Before avalon delayed their chip orders (by selling them to the Chinese instead of those who paid for them, the difficulty increase supports this theory) and crushed any potential of profits for us, steamboat was busy organizing parts in advance so that there would be minimal down time between receiving the chips and getting the miners out the door and on their way.

So all of those who didn't opt for a refund and got their k16's would have had them assembled using this stock pile of parts.

What we need to know is how many parts were prepaid in advance, how many have been used to create the shipped k16's and what is the difference, if stock has run out that's good news for those of us who have opted for a refund as the paid btc would not have been cashed in and should still remain.

So what is the best course of action from here?

I and everyone else in this group buy would like to see the numbers:

How many parts were purchased / stockpiled in anticipation of the avalon chips arriving?
How many k16's have been assembled and shipped using these parts?
Was assembly prepaid? If so, how many units were prepaid for assembly and how many have been shipped?

Whatever the remaining balance should be divided up amongst all of those who opted for a chip refund and also paid for parts / assembly / hosting / shipping.

Pure speculation dump, it's the exact same thing as the silk road dump. Now we get to sit back and watch it trend higher with even more strength. Hopefully those sitting at a loss right now put their pride aside and buy back in before they lose even more.

And we have our first profit taker! Step right up step right up, the bitcoin coaster is just getting started

Looks like whoever's got the balls to take their profit before 180 will trigger a reversal, the books on the buy side are quite deep so looks like everyone's just holding their breath for the inevitable.

Chip refund received, had some issue producing a signed message using armory offline wallet (had to edit the code for one of the armory files so the signing function would even work) but after that was sorted I was able to produce the signature block and that signed fine using another armory client to verify. So just a heads up if you're using an armory offline wallet as it's a lot of hassle.

Sent my request on the 13th and received it today, 11 day turn around so no issues there either.

Filled out the form for a refund (batch 4) with aaron.XXXXXXX@gmail.com for the address.

If there's another group buy for reworked k16's that run a faster 55nm chip, I'd be keen to get in on that so long as my assembly costs are discounted since most of the parts are already purchased, happy to front up the cash for additional parts that may be needed to get the modified design working.

So here's the cost breakdown for my order (Batch 4) for each k16 (16 chips) which was paid on the 26th of June, (assuming $104.5 USD / BTC).

1.376 BTC = 16 Chips
1.278 BTC = 1 Board
0.765 BTC = Shipping ($79.95 priority international option)

And assuming that we only get 95% of the chip costs back and 25% of the assembly cost back it works out to be:

1.3072 BTC / 16 chips
0.3195 BTC / Board Assembly
0.765 Shipping

I actually ordered 3 k16's (48 chips) which cost me a total of 9.0196 BTC
If I opt in for the refund and the above is correct I'd get back 5.6451 BTC (37% loss on investment)

If a new chip is found to be useable on a modified k16 unit, would there be a further refund on parts which were purchased for this group buy, or a credit to those of us that stay the course?