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Showing 6 of 6 results by joeykrug447
Re: Spin-offs: bootstrap an altcoin with a btc-blockchain-based initial distribution
Which lines of code in a spin-off would set a "claim by" time limit?
In the claim tx you just make there be a block limit (so if it's past block x, then you can no longer claim).
Re: Spin-offs: bootstrap an altcoin with a btc-blockchain-based initial distribution
Augur to go with Ethereum? If you can't figure out how to do a sidecoin/spin-off for Augur, someone else will. Hitching your wagon to anything other than the economic majority, as cumbersome as it may seem, does such a powerful idea a disservice in my opinion. Thinking Ethereum "isn't about being money" is dangerously close to the fallacious mainstream "Forget the currency, it's all about the blockchain technology" meme.
Money makes the blocks go 'round. Ethereum will fail unless it understands that, or someone will create Aetherium, or even launch it as a sidechain. The point is that the economic majority, meaning Bitcoin holders, is where the action is. Not fixing Augur's coin distribution to Bitcoin will be needlessly hampering it in the extreme.
Money makes the blocks go 'round. Ethereum will fail unless it understands that, or someone will create Aetherium, or even launch it as a sidechain. The point is that the economic majority, meaning Bitcoin holders, is where the action is. Not fixing Augur's coin distribution to Bitcoin will be needlessly hampering it in the extreme.
Saw this a long time ago & forgot to reply ---
Not doing a spin-off any longer, gong with sidechains to Ethereum.
Ethereum != only ether, & it's entirely possible to implement a Bitcoin sidechain to ethereum (so people can use Bitcoin on Augur
). In fact, I'm going to work on doing just that starting in a couple weeks.prediction markets seldom work as people say what they would like to do rather than what they would actually do.
an example, there was an experimet done a few years back.. cant find a link.. about day traders having better trading abilities before they were told they are actually dealing in real money transactions.
an example, there was an experimet done a few years back.. cant find a link.. about day traders having better trading abilities before they were told they are actually dealing in real money transactions.
Yes! i do understand that , people predict and the rumour alone cause a rucus and a rise , if they actually do it , the value stays and it again falls.
This has actually happened before --- 2012 on Intrade Mitt Romney's campaign bought millions in Romney shares to seemingly boost Romney's chances. What ended up happening was the market quickly corrected to the prior odds showing Obama with a higher chance of winning. Using real money usually forces people to do what they'd actually do (and in this context I definitely consider Bitcoin real money), and when it doesn't (e.g. Romney campaign) the market corrects.
This is hugely important work, thanks for your efforts!
Like many brilliant ideas around these parts, I am left wondering "where is the implementation?"
I think you will find that determining "the truth" or in the language of your whitepaper "accurate reporting" is the crux of the biscuit. I see from your blog you are tackling this head on and moving past the days of suggesting that "Googling" is somehow part of the solution. if we could trust a predetermined third party to report on outcomes we wouldn't need your project.
I think you will find that some use of proof of coin holdings by reporters for trust of event reporting is a good way to go.
You will also need to make a decent analysis of the monetary risk of corruption of reporting source (I guess people are using the name oracle for this which I don't like but hey that's pretty typical of language). In other words, if the bids and asks on a given prediction market really start to heat up and the amount of BTC at stake starts to reach some function of the BTC that is being held and counted in use of reporting the event outcome, the reliability of this market is compromised.
So sorry, just more ideas here, not the implementations you would like.
Keep up the good work! I have money riding on your success
Like many brilliant ideas around these parts, I am left wondering "where is the implementation?"
I think you will find that determining "the truth" or in the language of your whitepaper "accurate reporting" is the crux of the biscuit. I see from your blog you are tackling this head on and moving past the days of suggesting that "Googling" is somehow part of the solution. if we could trust a predetermined third party to report on outcomes we wouldn't need your project.
I think you will find that some use of proof of coin holdings by reporters for trust of event reporting is a good way to go.
You will also need to make a decent analysis of the monetary risk of corruption of reporting source (I guess people are using the name oracle for this which I don't like but hey that's pretty typical of language). In other words, if the bids and asks on a given prediction market really start to heat up and the amount of BTC at stake starts to reach some function of the BTC that is being held and counted in use of reporting the event outcome, the reliability of this market is compromised.
So sorry, just more ideas here, not the implementations you would like.
Keep up the good work! I have money riding on your success
You're exactly right that it's the crux of the biscuit (fellow biscuit lover here btw)!
There's been a lot of discussion and work done on risks of corruption by Vitalik Buterin (his p+epsilon posts) and Paul Sztorc (Truthcoin whitepaper and forum discussions). I think it'd be interesting to do some BAR (Byzantine, Altruistic, Rational) analysis on our system's reporting aspects. Yeah, you're right on the BTC at stake part; the problem starts to appear when the BTC at stake in a market is > value of all reputation used for reporting.
Thank you, just finished a major codebase refactoring & put a bunch of our contracts on ethereum blockchain so I'm quite excited too!
This is some what close to the binary markets, it was a great a idea, i wish we could have it for btc too, is anyone building something like this for btc at the moment?
We'll allow you to use sidechained Bitcoin once sidechains are released.
Would it be possible to create a data feed in Augur with e.g. an hourly fiat exchange rate update?
Seems I don't have the email from my old 2011 account anymore & thus can't recover the password :/ Anyway,
Yep --- you'd basically create a branch with a quick reporting period
Regarding block times, currently looking at ~12 seconds.