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Showing 7 of 7 results by marcus72ch
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Topic
Board Speculation
Re: If Enough People Loose Their Money, Will Bitcoin Go Into a Long Bear Market?
by
marcus72ch
on 31/12/2014, 19:47:29 UTC
I somehow don't gett it sometimes...

Bitcoin exchanges are still quite small things compared to stockexchanges like Wallstreet or stockmarket online exchanges, and we saw often enough this yera that the price can easily be manipulated in this or that direction.

So whyt would happen if the majority of the community now would just put no more btc sale offers lower than maybe 380 for now on the exchanges??

In my opinion 2 things....

1. Even that there still might be some guys who still like to give away their coins for nothing, those would be fast bought up, and then exchanges' ask sides would all show up prices o 380 and above.
Maybe ther would then be a short time where the trading volume would go near 0, but soon it would go up again and all people who want to buy bTC would see that the prices on all amjor exchanges are around the same, and the smaller would the also soon follow.

2. This would result in the price graphs to show a price encrease of over 50USD/BTC within let's say 3 or 4 hours, this would make many people think that the bottom had been through now and this would attract a lot of people to buy now before the price goes up more (that's how most of non professionals would think because of what they see)

So even if a lot of people (especially miners) need their coins to by changed to Fiat topay bills, this would not takes weeks for the price to move...and I think everybody ca wait some hours or a day to chnage their coins.

For sure are there also the big players on the market but except they hold short obligations they should also have no interest in such low BTC PRICE...

If more than 80%of the community would do this, we would sure be able to stabilise the price on a 400USD level with a few coordinated actions like this...

Just my opinion...but all who have hardware running at home should have the same interest to start eraning again some/more money...

More than 3,600 new coins are printed mined per day. You know how people complain about the FED printing money & making theirs worthless?  Bitcoin is doing what the FED is doing, only faster.
Most of the money-printers miners are not hobbyists but by commercial mega mines, which do it for profit and have bills to pay.  This means the coins have to be sold for fiat real money.

But I like your trick of limiting the supply by refusing to sell.  Artificial scarcity is the very gimmick Bitcoin and Beanie Babies are based on, so the idea isn't entirely original.
I'm sure many people think like yourself tho, and that's why I was able to sell my coins at a profit, leaving you with the bag.
I used to feel a bit guilty about it, but eventually learned to see myself as teaching you a valuable lesson & actually feel proud of what I do Smiley

Hope this clears things up.

I'm also such a "Money-Primter" by myself, and doing it also for business (not large business, but 25TH is at least a big hobby....for me more a small businnes) and I also have to pay the high electricity bills here in Switzerland and still I would be able to wait a few hours or even 1 or days to trade my coins,when I will get then 50, 80 or more USD more. And since the BTC market reacts very fast compared to other markets, this woud not take long (as I described before) FOR THE PRICE TO CLIMB.

But the point is that enough people must come to the same conclusion, but I feel that people today are in the mood "Better I sell all now, price could be less tomorrow" and this is the reason that in the end then really puts the price downwards.
On the Oilmarket or Soja or Aplle-Shares we (the people) do not really have it in our hands to change the market in some way, but on BTC Market we would.

Just still the problem how to get enough people together for a coordinated action....I'm sure it would work...BTC's were always bought, at 1000, at 800, 500 or 300...they were bought, so if sellers stop putting them on the market for less than a certain price, they willbe bought as well, maybe with a short downbreak os trade volume, but I'm sure this would only last some minutes to few hours..
Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: If Enough People Loose Their Money, Will Bitcoin Go Into a Long Bear Market?
by
marcus72ch
on 31/12/2014, 12:54:34 UTC
I somehow don't gett it sometimes...

Bitcoin exchanges are still quite small things compared to stockexchanges like Wallstreet or stockmarket online exchanges, and we saw often enough this yera that the price can easily be manipulated in this or that direction.

So whyt would happen if the majority of the community now would just put no more btc sale offers lower than maybe 380 for now on the exchanges??

In my opinion 2 things....

1. Even that there still might be some guys who still like to give away their coins for nothing, those would be fast bought up, and then exchanges' ask sides would all show up prices o 380 and above.
Maybe ther would then be a short time where the trading volume would go near 0, but soon it would go up again and all people who want to buy bTC would see that the prices on all amjor exchanges are around the same, and the smaller would the also soon follow.

2. This would result in the price graphs to show a price encrease of over 50USD/BTC within let's say 3 or 4 hours, this would make many people think that the bottom had been through now and this would attract a lot of people to buy now before the price goes up more (that's how most of non professionals would think because of what they see)

So even if a lot of people (especially miners) need their coins to by changed to Fiat topay bills, this would not takes weeks for the price to move...and I think everybody ca wait some hours or a day to chnage their coins.

For sure are there also the big players on the market but except they hold short obligations they should also have no interest in such low BTC PRICE...

If more than 80%of the community would do this, we would sure be able to stabilise the price on a 400USD level with a few coordinated actions like this...

Just my opinion...but all who have hardware running at home should have the same interest to start eraning again some/more money...

.
Post
Topic
Board Pools
Re: Bitminter bitcoin mining pool - Pays TxFees, Merged Mining, Fair PPLNS rewards
by
marcus72ch
on 14/10/2014, 10:49:43 UTC
If there are any renters here I would be interested in combining our efforts at the same time to see if we can see if we can push a few blocks maybe?

I would be doing 50thash for 6 hours.  If anyone is interested we can set a common time and do it.

Thanks

Fahlcor

I could add around 10TH when I point all not rented out miners to Bitminter, not so much, but some mor people with 10TH or more and it could really make a difference
Post
Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: the end is near
by
marcus72ch
on 21/09/2014, 15:35:32 UTC
The question is only who will be still able to afford mining btc, with a price under 100$ and next Diff raise of 20% or more. I've invested just recently 9000€, will get 10 more machines tmorrow and have an iffer for spondos that would cost me like a nice medium priced car. But I actually think of stopping all imediatly, since only a few € less and I start oaying on top, not to talk about any ROI...where will this stop???


.... except chinese big farns
Post
Topic
Board Pools
Re: [440 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees + MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff]
by
marcus72ch
on 16/08/2014, 05:28:24 UTC
Come on blocks, don't be stubborn! Hey BTC, you owe us at least 3 < 30 CDF blocks in a row Cheesy
Posted from Bitcointa.lk - #2oYGveBVIKXNgnqJ

Hey BTC you owe us at least 500$ per coin, that's where I'm more concerned about at the moment...  Undecided
Post
Topic
Board Pools
Re: [1450 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff]
by
marcus72ch
on 14/08/2014, 16:14:25 UTC
The mathematical probability of hitting 2 blocks in the 99th cumitive distribution factor is astronomical, roughly the same as hitting 2 at <1, not quite the same as the 99th is infinite since 100% can never be achieved.

I'm not really sure what you mean, but by definition the lower tail 0.99 CDF occurs when an event is expected to occur one time in 100.

If that's for one block, it will require total work of 4.60517 times the network difficulty. If it's for two blocks, it will require total work of 6.638352 times the network difficulty.

In the first case we would expect this to happen once in one hundred blocks; in the second case once in two hundred blocks.

That's not even close to infinite.

Actually it is multiplicative not additive.  Thus it is one in 10,000.  Which if you extrapilate out at the same difficulty means it should happen about once in 25 months.  I.E. hardly a once in the life of the universe event.

No, it's not. By definition, a CDF of 0.99 is a one in a hundred occurrence, whether the event involves one block or 10 blocks or a thousand blocks. 

We are not discussing one event.  We are discussing 2 events and now a third.  Yes a CDF of 0.99 is one in a hundred.  However the chance of 2 CDF 0.99 events occurring back to back is one in Ten Thousand.  The site does not calculate the CDF of multiple blocks.

So it's two events each with 0.99 CDF? Why not just say so then?

So and now since again over 85% how high is the chance to get another 90+% ?

Sorry, but this kind of math is somehow off from reality in my opinion. The last 2 weekends I was playing a bet high/low game with 80-100.000 satoshis as capital starting from 1 with a chance of 1/3 and always doubled my bet each time I lost, so you would think with 100.000 you should have enough to double till you win again, but actually both weeks I lost all.

the chance for that might be higher than 3 over 90% CDF blocks in a row, but in the end it's just that,

Luck is a bitch and end of the story.  Cool

I did not really get the matter with the CDF for blocks till Dr.Haribo explained me once in the chat and I lost around 40€ last week, so I'm not happy, but I do not think that luck cares about mathematical probabilities in the end.
Post
Topic
Board Pools
Re: [1450 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff]
by
marcus72ch
on 12/08/2014, 11:34:07 UTC
Don't worry everybody, this evening my 6 days of renting X-tra Gh will be over, and so as soon as my Shiftscore has dropped to some uninteresting value again, the blocks will be found within minutes.  Undecided

So really no reason to worry….. Cool