A brief discussion of Armstrong's latest crypto-related blog post:

While he is certainly correct about the presence of thousands of coins being untenable from a human perspective, there is nothing preventing localized or private coin usage for small-scale purposes. This is especially relevant for machine-machine communication and transactions; while they would not carry much value outside of their local system, it could still be worthwhile in certain situations such as sensor networks.

I think comparing Bitcoin to silver is borderline disingenuous. The former is a technology with properties of several asset classes while silver is a physical commodity material with monetary properties, not in itself a technology. This makes me think that Bitcoin would be more inline with NASDAQ or a tech stock, and comparing those does show similarities with an accelerated time-frame in the case of Bitcoin.

The Socrates computer system has certainly been able to call the patterns, but the reasons for those patterns unfolding are not necessarily what Armstrong touts in his opinion. As he has stated so many times, human opinion cannot consistently describe markets - only an unbiased and objective computer has the potential for that. Perhaps Armstrong's perspective has been colored a bit too much by the existing paradigm of this world and led to his own bias.

There's a good take from Daniel Jeffries on people accurately forecasting the future, but in exactly the inverse to what actually happens. A quote from that post:


Jeffries also correctly points out that the most significant advance of Bitcoin is it's functional implementation of triple-entry accounting, only the third advance in accounting for all of human history.

Now read the following with that in mind:

Okay, we'll see...

Bitcoin is not just a trading vehicle even if it is behaving as such right now. It is also a highly tamper-resistant sequential-ordering chain, a cryptographic registry, a programmable contract platform - and the list goes on.

That said, it certainly is not going to be a short-term process for Bitcoin to reach stratospheric levels or be established as a reserve currency; it may happen a lot sooner than many expect but it will still take years. Regardless of where it may go, the advice to never marry the trade is absolutely appropriate.

Quite aggravating. A curated filter mechanism would be preferable to banning, especially when the ban is arbitrary.

Bitcoin is not a moderated system (yet) and the supporting communication channels also need to be free from authoritarian decree.

I have not been participating on this forum for some time, partially because of the excessive noise and mod actions, mostly due to the fact that Bitcoin is now a mite boring.

Good luck to all those still participating - may you spend ever more time enjoying life rather than starting at displays

A link from a certain individual was passed along to me:

https://www.quora.com/Why-is-AMD-turning-into-a-fabless-What-is-the-advantage-of-that/answer/Bill-McDonald

When you mention Bitcoin in the context of this thread, are you referring to crypto in general?

I agree with your assessment regarding the likelihood of a decline following this run up. It seems that you're also saying that the subsequent activity will be more turbulent, as investment in this sector becomes even more heated than during the prior subdued period - correct?

As for 100k, I threw that out as a remote possibility for a spike high on overshoot. I do agree that the target of 40k is much more attainable in the near-term, although at the moment I have no charts to directly show such levels. My current charts top out around 20k.

http://www.tradingview.com/x/kZTQwBYB/

http://www.tradingview.com/x/0gb9bKRl/

This isn't disputing your assessment, only contemplating how quickly widespread usage might occur and whether a major catalyst could be lurking. An adoption S-curve is not necessarily going to cause an immediate price move. These levels are certainly looking for a correction or at least a pause, though I wonder whether the recent ~30% dip in Bitcoin already cleared the froth.

So I'm left wondering... Bitcoin is a technology. The infrastructure is already in place for it to be used - smartphones. There are already existing paradigms that adults of all ages can use in order to make use of the system to make transfers.

Automobiles required roads, fuel and maintenance/repair support systems. The telephone needed vast stretches of cabling. The Internet required computers and communication hardware to be widely available. We are now in a period of Facebook, Instagram and WeChat where sudden and rapid user growth is a matter of software installation. The rails are already here, and general populations are starting to take interest.

Separately, what is the Bitcoin market value compared to the crypto economy as a whole? Will wealth held in Bitcoin simply spread to other crypto, simply shuffling the balance around? If so, is adoption better measured by the entire ecosystem?

Look at Litecoin now - launching while Bitcoin is stationary. If they keep popping off and Bitcoin starts waning, will awareness spread among individuals outside of crypto as they discover that there's an entire universe of investments that Bitcoin opened the door to?

Finally, which projects are close to active usage in existing environments aside from crypto? Ripple is certainly being made use of by banks; Stellar has its place as well as Iota... Bitcoin and Ethereum may take a back seat for a spell while more well-defined use cases run the show in the near-term.

Is this a hydra that will keep propelling crypto forward; when one lags, the others forge ahead? I am considering the potential that, even if Bitcoin stalls, the crypto economy as a whole may make new highs and continue doing so for some time.

One of the most poignant aspects I've noticed is that sailors form a tightly-knit community no matter where in the world they are. Power boaters are the same as people on land - mostly unreliable and self-interested. Sailors have a different perspective; their pace of life is much more spiritual and self-sufficient. They will help almost without thinking, although they are far more rational than many people I know. Sharing with other sailors and protecting each other is ingrained.

Almost like preppers at sea, but more practical and sane

I like the approach, and it would certainly be worthwhile to use for inner waterways and near-coastal travel. Blue water sailing or crossings would not be something I'd consider lightly, but the objectives of minimal maintenance with high reliability and simple operation make for a fantastic alternative to being stuck somewhere with a piece of real estate that could easily wind up forfeit due to jurisdictional insanity.

Nice find.

For now...

Agreed on all points so far.


In a shock, yes I see Bitcoin and crypto being liquidated to some extent. High volatility suggests the swings will be greater.

Also yes in regard to aligning with equities - crypto has aspects of both currency and equities, so it seems very likely that it will perform as such.

There will undoubtedly be more rises and falls but overall the cryptocurrency field is an entire ecosystem with myriad uses in so many other industries that looking at it as simply an asset class misses the big picture. The bitcoin unit is only part of the whole; without a thorough understanding of the system it can be difficult to assess it holistically. I think Armstrong may have stopped at a mostly superficial comprehension.

Since Armstrong first started posting about Bitcoin, he seems to have changed his stance. It has been suspected that there wasn't enough data for Socrates to develop a high-confidence forecast. Whether that has changes, who knows?

One thing to note is that Armstrong is calling for the DOW to rise significantly. If anything, crypto would be aligned with private assets and therefore rise along with equities in the near-term.

Additionally, Bitcoin is a politician's wet dream: tracking and control with a keystroke. It appeals to all parties but will eventually trap users.

He has also been exceptionally accurate.

One thing that has disappointed me is his assessment of Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies in general. His latest post regarding Bitcoin indicates that he considers it to be just like any other single-class asset. I am left wondering whether he has genuinely studied the system to understand the intricacies and how it differs from any other asset, not to mention the scripting capabilities.

I have to wonder whether speculating in the speculation thread was what got you banned or if it was something you said that was a little too close to the structure of a behind-the-scenes plan?

Will be watching price movement. Bitcoin and all of the majors (ETH, XMR, DASH, ZEC, DASH, XRP) are up except for LTC which appears to be inversely correlated. What's especially nice about that is that the possibility exists to remain entirely in crypto without having to jump out to fiat for large trading profits.

Of course, chasing money is an annoying necessity that we could all do without...

I think a 2000-2500 target is possible with earlier levels among the 1500 to 1700 range, but beware current issues surrounding some exchanges.

USDT is a questionable "asset" that is pegged to the US dollar. However, pegs inevitably fail. There has been as much as an 11% disparity between the value of USD and USDT which is highly disturbing - a peg is supposed to maintain 1:1 value. If it fails it may cause major issues with Bitfinex due to using USDT as its USD reserves, and lesser troubles for Poloniex which uses USDT but at much lower volume.

If there is trouble at Bitfinex, the stresses may have been increased considerably due to rapid withdrawals from the cold wallet[1] during April. The cold wallet balance has been halved since then and might simply indicate trader jitters, but worries about Bitcoin exchanges have tended to be well-founded.

With Bitcoin breaking out to new highs it seems sensible to me that it's worthwhile to simply hodl in a secure wallet. Should the need to sell arise, simply transfer the desired amount to an exchange.

Whether you choose to take action or do nothing based on the above information is up to you; being aware simply helps in the decision-making process.

[1] https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r

I cannot rule out suspect activity on the part of Bitfinex through use of USDT. There are questions about Poloniex as well, though again uncertain about the veracity. I do not think Poloniex would default and the relative holdings of USDT are minor compared to other coins, the exchange being primarily crypto-crypto and explicitly showing USDT as such whereas Bitfinex only displays it as USD.

Regardless, I am highly cautious at this point regarding having funds on exchanges. If Bitsquare had volume, I would certainly be using that instead of most others.

The conversion of BFX tokens to shares of Bitfinex completed and was the catalyst for full token redemption on the exchange. Interestingly, the amount of capital raised is 54513657[1]. This number is quite close to the total authorized line and, since Bitfinex is associated, I have to wonder whether there's any connection.

I've been opposed to the idea of a pegged unit well before Coinapult had its "locks" and still view such a system with suspicion for anything beyond very short-term utilization.

[1] https://bnktothefuture.com/search/pitches

Who knows? I'm displeased with the site being down for over a day now.

At least Dwarf Fortress has a consistent UI... CK is gimmicky and disjointed with so many translations and obfuscations that it may as well be called Micro Manage Everything. At least the command window should be available at all times. Promising, but currently highly disappointing.

I'd assume Elliot Wave Oscillator.

Yes, 1255-1275 is an area of significant resistance. The battle is at 1165 so I expect we can see a decline to around 1000-1100 if we don't get beyond 1280. Beyond 1280 the 1400-1440 range comes into play.


The BTCe charts are a little different but show long-term trends from a point when Poloniex was not the dominant LTC exchange. There is a long-term downtrend line that is now sitting at a little above LTCBTC 0.01 and had been breached on April 5-6th but not closed above on a daily basis. Once we close above that line there should be a run toward 0.015-0.02 and eventually ATH.

On both charts, the downtrend channel has been broken out of. Now we just have to see whether we trend sideways for a bit like ETH or resume the uptrend. Speaking of ETH, it is only a few days away from a potential breakout, probably to the upside.

Litecoin hashrate seems to be varying widely. I have not done the math to see how much variance is attributable to the range.

What might that threshold be - 10 BTC, 100, 1000...?

At the point where there may be only a few million Bitcoin-holding entities, wouldn't anonymity be broken due to blockchain analysis methods combined with the reduced user base? Or would agreements be adhered to at the top, creating a glass ceiling barrier to the Bitcoin billionaire gentleman's club?

You're not the only one