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Showing 7 of 7 results by ozensama
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Re: Any way for newbies to build reputation quickly?
by
ozensama
on 08/12/2024, 04:12:31 UTC
You're confusing trust as social term and trust as forum indicator. I use the word "trust" as social term.
Forum indicators don't make any sense to me. What if some legendary user knows you for a long time and can personally vouch for you? What if someone gave you a point for a confirmed transaction? They both can give you +1 trust, but, of course, the amount of actual, social trust (the only trust that matters), they put into you is different. Forum indicators can't reflect it.
You're the one who confuse it.

If the legendary user give positive feedback just because a long term relationship or helping you to understand something, without any financial deal. They're technically using forum feedback inappropriate.

If I were someone that want to judge someone reputation, I will skip to read such kind of feedback and only pay attention to feedback about financial.
So you're telling me that trust built in long-lasting relationships matters less than the trust earned by trading with other users? That's great! I guess I'll go farm the so-called "trust" by doing small transactions with other users until I collect just enough to do some nasty scam, only to remind y'all that Goodhart's law exists.

The way it works on this forum could be far better if we had some kind of "invite" system that wouldn't prohibit newbies from posting but would require oldfags of the forum to vouch for them to ensure that the newbies would act in good faith. That would be far less time-consuming for newbies and far more similar to how trust in the real world works.
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Re: Any way for newbies to build reputation quickly?
by
ozensama
on 08/12/2024, 03:54:06 UTC
"Rank" and "reputation" are different, even you're a legendary, it doesn't mean you're reputable. A newbie account can be more reputable than a legendary because reputation built by trust, trust mostly come from money.

If you want to gain reputation, technically, you need to give your money.

Here are two example Best_Change and eXch, they don't have to be active, but they have a long term campaign.

You're confusing trust as social term and trust as forum indicator. I use the word "trust" as social term.
Forum indicators don't make any sense to me. What if some legendary user knows you for a long time and can personally vouch for you? What if someone gave you a point for a confirmed transaction? They both can give you +1 trust, but, of course, the amount of actual, social trust (the only trust that matters), they put into you is different. Forum indicators can't reflect it.
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Re: Any way for newbies to build reputation quickly?
by
ozensama
on 08/12/2024, 02:13:10 UTC
You can't skip the process.. if you want to get to higher ranks, then you have to spend time on the forum. Discuss, share ideas and opinions. Everyone has a unique contribution to the forum and that's why they were able to rank up. It can take months or a year but you will have to be committed to learning about everything related to the forum and Bitcoin...

Thanks Hatchy, but I don't think that I can actually contribute to this forum. Y'all seem to be doing well without me, and I'm also a bit too introverted to talk to people who I don't know (lol).

I've met a prominent user of this forum with whom we discussed my non-crypto, non-tech related project. I could probably show some of our PGP-signed messages to ensure everyone that I can be trusted, but they def won't be happy with it. They could probably vouch for me, but they don't have enough time to even read emails more often than once a month or two. That's why I came here - I have found only one investor so far and yet they don't have enough time for everything. That sucks ig...
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Topic OP
Any way for newbies to build reputation quickly?
by
ozensama
on 08/12/2024, 00:59:30 UTC
This community seems distrustful of, uhm, aliens. It can be seen the forum's statistics: there are two distinct groups of users, those who come here for quite short time and never come back, and everyone else. The latter eventually become hero and legendary users, and the former remain foreigners forever.

Is there any way for newbies to build reputation besides spending months to become a regular? Maybe some kind of a guarantee given by an already reputable user?
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Joblessness
by
ozensama
on 06/12/2024, 21:14:36 UTC
Unfortunately not everyone has the privilege to not work and focus on themselves that’s why they never improve in terms of the job they land on. Since they don’t have the time to focus on themselves and their skills, they remain only on a specific level and their wages are also the same.

This.
Most people simply don't have enough time for everything. You have to use your time wisely and to be very good at something to be successful. Unfortunately, most people have neither enough time nor enough talent. If you have both, you have an opportunity that most people on this planet never had and would never have - use it!
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: It's hard to admit, but I was wrong about Bitcoin
by
ozensama
on 06/12/2024, 20:58:19 UTC
Ha!

The guy at work who laughed at me for buying BTC back in 2012 is still working.

I retired early two years ago as a direct result of my BTC holdings.
I think we all know a guy like your coworker. A female friend once tried to assure me that bitcoin, crypto and any trading in general is a scam and ordinary people can't profit off it. A couple of years prior, I made 3x with bitcoin. Tongue
I admire you. Your retirement is a reward for your curiosity about bitcoin, crypto and technology and general. Many people would like to be in your place, including me.
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Topic
Board Gambling
Re: How can AI be used to improve chances of winning at crypto-casinos?
by
ozensama
on 06/12/2024, 20:48:21 UTC
So a friend of mine does algorithmic trading on the stock market. He's tried time and again to use chatgpt or other AIs to help predict the direction of the stock market - along with massive amounts of input data, in addition to training data the LLMs were already provided with.

Guess what? Less than 5% accuracy in the prediction over a short timeframe (eg. if you ask it today, it's answer for tomorrow is inaccurate) except for a 'general direction'.

Useless for investing because a shoeshine boy could tell you the same news for less.

Now this is for a structured setup where there are sentiment forces and potentially predictable factors.

With chance-based games, I suspect this will be like using a coin flip to predict the output of another coin flip. Highly random. And because the information is not probabilistically actionable enough for the AI, I'm quite sure chatgpt will 'manufacture' fiction and give you a number / direction because you asked for it.

So that fictional pair of dice you told chatgpt about are about to get a fictional number. 🎲🎲

Or as we say in programming,
Code:
int randomValue = 6; // Guaranteed to be random! generated by a random dice throw



Nailed it.
What's more interesting is that most day traders can't beat the market too. There are tons of studies that demonstrate that the absolute most of day traders lose their money, and there is very little chance to succeed. I guess it is very unlikely that AI can do better at day trading.
The long-term trends though - the "general direction" - are way less risky and far more easy to predict and take advantage of. That's where the use of AI is likely beneficial. I remember reading about a hedge fund founded by a math PhD. The fund uses machine learning to predict market trends, and AFAIK, it has been consistently beating the market for decades, and even Berkshire Hathaway hasn't ever achieved this much. I don't remember the name of the fund tho.