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Showing 20 of 8,232 results by pawel7777
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Re: Is DCA Still the Smartest Strategy in This Stage of the Cycle?
by
pawel7777
on 25/07/2025, 22:32:14 UTC
Many people DCA during bear markets when prices are low and fear is high. But with current prices climbing and sentiment shifting toward greed, is it still wise to keep averaging in at regular intervals?
That's not DCA, but buy the dip.

DCA is a strategy where you accumulate an asset with regular interval without looking at the price. If you waiting for the price to down/bearish season, you're trying to buy at the lowest, which is no longer DCA.

To answer your question, it's up to you, if you not able to commit with DCA then that's fine.

Precisely. The whole point of the DCA strategy is to provide relief from the type of dilemmas the OP is having. Just keep buying without looking at the price until you hit your goal (if there's any).

That being said, the question, although phrased not quite correctly, still stands: is now a good time to buy for someone accumulating for a long-term hold? My guess is as good as anyone else's, but if we assume that we are near the top of the cycle and that the bear market is to begin towards the end of the year (and we might see even an 80% drop) I'd say it's probably best to wait for the price to drop. Although I wouldn't be aiming at the very bottom, as it's just as hard to predict as the top.
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Board Gambling discussion
Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread
by
pawel7777
on 25/07/2025, 22:21:58 UTC
What I mean is that fighters need to add charisma too, otherwise they'll earn much less. I'm sure his contract should be the same as Alex's, simply because of the value Alex brings to the fight.

So, when he has charisma, attracts fans, and is famous, he can earn much more; that's a fact. And he can also negotiate with the UFC itself. If he's happy with earning less, that's fine, it's a choice. But in the long run, that's not good, when he could be earning much more.

I'm not saying that you're wrong in what you said, I just don't necessarily think that fighters should be pressured to do any public relations stunts just to sell more tickets/PPV. Yes, it is in their own financial interest, but let's not expect all of them to engage in acting or some other fakery when they're pretending something they are not. As fans, we should discourage that, as this is just dumbing down the sport and if we are to go that route, we will end up with some total WWE-style circus.

If someone is naturally not very charismatic, so be it, not everyone can. And the language barrier is also a factor. Fighters who don't speak English very well, or at all, would have a hard time making a show in the pre-fight conferences etc.
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Board Gambling discussion
Re: ⚽ Polish League - Ekstraklasa Prediction & Discussion Thread ⚽
by
pawel7777
on 25/07/2025, 22:10:32 UTC
Great performance by Lech Poznań in the 1st leg of the second qualifying round of the Champions League yesterday. The champions of Poland have absolutely destroyed Iceland's Breiðablik 7-1. The top scorer of the game was Mikael Ishak, who scored 3, all of which were penalty shots.
Looks like the rematch is only a formality, as it would be close to impossible to waste such an advantage.

In the conference league, Raków Częstochowa defeated MSK Zilina 3-0, and Jagiellonia beat Novi Pazar 2-1. Legia was the only team that didn't win their game, but a 2-2 draw with Banik could still be seen as a good result, given it was an away game.
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Board Gambling discussion
Re: ⚽UEFA Conference League Discussion Thread -- 2024/25 | Winner: Chelsea
by
pawel7777
on 25/07/2025, 21:53:27 UTC
We have another team that goes to the wall of shame - Polissya Zhytomyr lost to Sant Coloma from Andorra 1:2. In recent few seasons we have so many upsets from these tiny clubs (Andorra, Gibraltar, Faroe Islands and etc) like never before.
(...)

Does anybody know if it's just a result of luck, or have those clubs from micro-countries actually started to invest more in their teams?


To me, the most interesting game of Leg 1 of the second qualifying round was Besiktas Vs Shakhtar Donetsk. I expected Besiktas to win, as I considered them a better team and they had home advantage, but they received a proper beating and lost 2-4. A little consolation will be the fact that Shakhtar doesn't quite play at home due to the war with Russia, and I believe they now play in Germany at the Schalke stadium, so it might not be much of a home advantage for the Ukrainian team. And given how numerous the Turkish diaspora is in Germany, I wouldn't be surprised if there were more fans supporting Besiktas.
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Board Gambling discussion
Re: Usyk - Dubois Rematch July 19 Undisputed Heavyweight, Wembley, London
by
pawel7777
on 25/07/2025, 21:39:34 UTC
I think Usyk would rather retire than take an easy fight against this mandatory challenger. Honestly, Fury is a much tougher opponent than Parker, and that’s who he’s facing next. Since Usyk has hinted at retirement before, I wouldn’t be surprised if he decides to hang up his gloves soon, there’s really no one left in the division who can truly challenge him.

Before his fight against Dubois was announced, Usyk mentioned he wanted to fight two more times before retiring (or maybe said something along the lines of having only 2 fights left in him - slightly different meaning but still). And I believe he confirmed after the Dubois fight that he's not retiring. If Parker is the best option for him, I think he will take it, but I'm not sure if it is, especially if it would be the last fight in Usyk's career.
Then again, Parker might not sound super-exciting but, other than being the mandatory contender, he has a good recent record and, unlike other potential candidates, he hasn't fought Usyk ever before.

But it is starting to look like the real choice is between Parker and Fury. I think Usyk doesn't care too much about vacating belt if it comes to that, and will probably go where the money is better.
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Re: Usyk - Dubois Rematch July 19 Undisputed Heavyweight, Wembley, London
by
pawel7777
on 24/07/2025, 22:03:51 UTC
OK, some fresh news from today on Usyk and his future surfaced today:
https://www.gbnews.com/sport/boxing/oleksandr-usyk-next-fight-joseph-parker-2673753749
As expected, the WBO have ordered Usyk to negotiate the mandatory title defence against Parker.
They gave both sides 30 days to reach an agreement, and if this is not done, a compulsory purse auction with a minimum bid of $1million will be organised by the WBO.

So the big question is whether Usyk is interested in fighting Parker (Parker definitely is) or would he prefer to vacate the WBO belt and fight someone else.
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Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread
by
pawel7777
on 24/07/2025, 21:39:44 UTC
Yes, it's totally advantageous for Alex. That's undeniable. However, it must be bad for Ankalaev even if he wins, because he lacks charisma with the public. And he's unlikely to be a fighter acclaimed by the general public.

Well, he would probably much prefer being an uncharismatic champ getting all the biggest names just by virtue of holding the belt, than being an uncharismatic non-champ, who would struggle to get any big money fights.
So I'm sure he won't be sad after defeating Alex.

And not everyone has to be an entertainer outside of the octagon. The most pathetic thing is fighters forcing themselves to be the next Conor McGregor or create some other artificial hype around them. I get that there's a show-business part of the mma, but it should be mostly a sport. If we forget this, we might end up with some WWE-type of drama.
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Board Gambling discussion
Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread
by
pawel7777
on 24/07/2025, 14:44:09 UTC
Fights + odds (by BC.Game) for this weekend's event:

Buday, Martin x3.3 Vs Buchecha, Marcus x1.3
Yahya, Mohammed x3.3 Vs Nguyen, Steven x1.3
Aslan, Ibo x1.33 Vs Elekana, Billy x3.1
Ribas, Amanda x1.52 Vs Ricci, Tabatha x2.4
Blackshear, Damon x1.3 Vs Grant, Davey x3.3
Leal, Carlos x1.22 Vs Salikhov, Muslim x3.95
Mitchell, Bryce x1.77 Vs Nurmagomedov, Said x1.98
Krylov, Nikita x1.5 Vs Guskov, Bogdan x2.45
Almabayev, Asu x1.83 Vs Ochoa, Jose x1.92
Magomedov, Sharaputdin x1.12 Vs Barriault, Marc Andre x5.5
Yan, Petr x1.22 Vs McGhee, Marcus x3.95
Whittaker, Robert x1.62 Vs De Ridder, Reinier x2.2

For the main event, I'm considering betting on De Ridder. I hardly knew anything about him prior to his fight with Bo Nickal, that's probably because he joined the UFC only in 2024, but his record looks really good.
He only lost twice, both times to the same guy called Anatoly Malykhin, who was ONE's triple champion. First time it was in a heavyweight category (225lb), second time in the middleweight (205lb, which would be a light heavyweight in the UFC).
De Ridders' finish ratio is 90%, most (65%) by submissions.
I'm not saying Whittaker has no chance, but I don't see him as a favourite here.
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Board Speculation
Re: Is BTC to 150K still happening this year?
by
pawel7777
on 23/07/2025, 22:29:01 UTC
A bit of a slow day for Bitcoin today. Not much going on apart for a small ~1% decline in the last 24 hours.
Volume is pretty medium at ~$66 billion, not too bad but seems smallish when compared to over $180 billion earlier this month, shortly after the new ATH was reached.

Fear & Greed is at 70, so still a lot of room for growth.

CMC "altcon season" index is again pointing at Bitcoin season after briefly visiting the "Altcon season" in the last 2 days. Some major altcoins noted a double-digit drop today, and, as a result, Bitcoin's dominance is back above 61%.

TA analysts and crypto experts are still confident we are to see new highs this season, although more of them mention partially exiting the market to secure some profits instead of just waiting for a good moment to dump everything all at once.
Some say quick corrections of $5-$10k can be expected before we continue climbing up.
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Board Gambling discussion
Re: MMA talk - PFL, Bellator, KSW, ONE...
by
pawel7777
on 23/07/2025, 22:03:07 UTC
Strange that I can still find Roberto Soldic profile page on KSW website and ONE Championship pages.
I am not sure he made a good decision moving to ONE as his new organization, but maybe they offered him more money and deal he could not refuse.
I see this new boxing fight against Adamek is under Fame MMA organization, this is the first time I hear about them.

If you take a closer look at his KSW page, there's a little note saying "Former fighter" right under his name. It seems like the KSW lists all their fighters, former and present, which is quite nice.

Fame mma is a Polish "freak-fight" organisation with a lot of controversies around their shady and unethical practices. Their business model was to match up celebrities from you tube or social platforms by offering them good money. Since the fighters are already somewhat famous, it doesn't take much to hype up such fights. It seems that the business model paid off. They are now expanding a bit and taking on board actual, trained, professional fighters. Soldic and Adamek are good example.
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Board Gambling discussion
Re: Usyk - Dubois Rematch July 19 Undisputed Heavyweight, Wembley, London
by
pawel7777
on 23/07/2025, 21:40:43 UTC
Speculating on what's next for Usyk, I've just read that the order of claims (order of which boxing organisations can demand Usyk to defend the title against a mandatory contender) is:
1 - WBO
2 - WBA
3 - WBC
4 - IBF

So there will be pressure on Usyk to either fight Parker or vacate the WBO belt, as I don't think the WBO would agree to defer it if Usyk decided to fight someone else.
Belts are one thing and money is another. In terms of profitability, Usyk has better-paying options than fighting Parker. Tyson Fury has already announced his willingness for a trilogy. AJ would be happy to do that too, and there's even an option for a freak-fight against Jake Paul, who somehow was allowed in the ring at Wembley after Usyk KO'd Dubois.
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Re: Boxing Speculation, Odds and Predictions
by
pawel7777
on 23/07/2025, 21:14:39 UTC
Regarding a possible Joshua Vs Paul fight, Tyson Fury announced that he will be putting $1 million bet on Jake Paul:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/boxing/tyson-fury-prediction-joshua-paul-35585913
I don't believe he would though, and it's likely just a sh*t talk, as there's some bad blood between him and AJ going on for years.

Eddie Hearn (AJ's manager) confirmed there are talks about making that fight happen, but I find it hard to believe that Paul would really go for it. On the other hand, losing to an active top-heavyweight would bring him no shame, unelss he gets KO'ed in an embarrassing fashion.
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Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread
by
pawel7777
on 23/07/2025, 21:03:29 UTC
I'd like to talk about the announced fight between Poatan and Ankalaev 2. Apparently, the belt holder has a chip on his shoulder with the organization, as he said he would only fight at home in Abu Dhabi, but it turned out they went to "Poatan's home," which is Las Vegas. I don't understand the UFC's move. Maybe Ankalaev doesn't really draw that much of a crowd? Any thoughts on this?

So I guess this cuts the rumour about Pereira moving up to the heavyweight to fight Aspinal.

So we have 3 confirmed fights at the UFC 320:
Alex Pereira Vs Magomed Ankalaev 2
Merab Dvalishvili Vs Cory Sandhagen
Jiri Prochazka Vs Khalil Rountree

So far so good. A rematch Pereira Vs Ankalaev makes sense. It's probably the best option for Ankalaev anyway. I'm not sure if that's the dream match-up for Alex, but winning the belt back would confirm his status as one of the best fighters in the world so worth a try.

I don't see Sandhagen defeating Merab, but he deserved a shot.

Prochazka Vs Rountree sounds like a guarantee KO on either side. Should be interesting.
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Re: Boxing Speculation, Odds and Predictions
by
pawel7777
on 22/07/2025, 21:16:55 UTC
And, to nobody's surprise, Tyson Fury has announced his un-retirement:

https://talksport.com/boxing/3400024/tyson-fury-retirement-anthony-joshua-oleksandr-usyk-daniel-dubois/

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/boxing/tyson-fury-boxing-fight-news-35590986

He aims to return next year and allegedly is in talks wih Turki Alalshikh about a 3-fight contract. Obviously he expressed his willingness to fight Usyk for the 3rd time.
He also excluded fights with Kabayel or Parker, with whom he previously traind and said they are like brothers to him.
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Board Economics
Re: What does working for yourself really mean?
by
pawel7777
on 20/07/2025, 15:52:54 UTC
If business owners, taxi owners, hotel owners and others who claim to be working for themselves need to depend on customers and customer satisfaction for profit, that is to be able to get money from them, are they really working for themselves?

Maybe the people who are actually working for themselves are those who do not need people or to satisfy any customer to make profit, example like the traders who do not need to lure customers to their shop like business owners or hotel owners, or taxi owner that need to follow instructions from their clients etc.

What could be the real definition of working for yourself?

A very good question indeed.

If you own your business, I don't think it's incorrect to say you work for yourself just because you still have customers to please.
But I think owning a business is much overrated in terms of the difference between that and working on an employment contract. Often times, the latter is much better (especially in jurisdictions with extensive employee protection laws).

Let's take a simple example: You are a full-time cleaner employed by ABC Ltd to clean its office Vs. you own a cleaning business, i.e. you still do the same job but as self-employed. In both cases, the work that you do is exactly the same, but, as an employee, you get holiday allowance, sickness leave and a legal protection against unfair dismissal (depending on the jurisdiction of course) among other benefits. In the self-employed scenario, you would ususally get more payment on hand, but you would be responsible for all the national insurance, pension contributions and making provisions to cover for any absence, but you would get very little protection from the conrahent not paying you on time or from them terminating/or not renewing the contract.

People like to think that "owning a business" is some holly grail that automatically grants you more freedom since you have no boss telling you what to do, but, in practice, is often the opposite, especially when you're dependent on one or few major clients who might have much higher and maybe even unrealistic expectations as compared to having a boss.
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Re: Pospekulujmy o aktualnej i przyszłej cenie BTC.
by
pawel7777
on 20/07/2025, 15:28:59 UTC
Wrzuciłem to na angielskojęzycznym wątku, ale wrzucam i tutaj bo wykres jest dosyć ciekawy:


źródło: https://x.com/intocryptoverse/status/1946721969262477783

W skrócie, czerwona linia reprezentuje zaiteresowanie Bitcoinem na mediach społecznościowych. Jak widać wskaźnik jest bardzo nisko, co sugeruje że tzw ulica za bardzo nie jest tematem zainteresowana, albo po prostu w tym temacie nie jest zbyt rozmowna.

Ogólnie biorąc, to jest trochę podobne do Fear & Greed index, gdzie im gorzej tym lepiej. Jeżeli wskaźnik jest nisko, to znaczy że jest jeszcze sporo miejsca na powrót zainteresowania , co za tym idzie, wzrost ceny. Chociaż osobiście nie interpretuje tego w tak pozytywny sposób.
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Board Gambling discussion
Re: ⚽ Premier League 2024/2025 Discussion Thread ⚽
by
pawel7777
on 20/07/2025, 15:17:14 UTC
Possible big change in Man City squad. Their first goalkeeper, Ederson, is said to have reached an agreement to leave the club for Galatasaray.
He will be replaced by young James Trafford, who is only 22 years old. Trafford already had a contract with Man City in the past but left for Burnley in 2023. Now the City are very keen on getting him back. They are not the only club interested in the young goalkeeper. Newcastle have also made an offer to Burnley (of £27 million), but it got rejected. The City have much deeper pockets though, so I'm sure they will come to an agreement, even if Burnley negotiate hard.

Anyhow, if it comes to that, that will be a big change.
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Board Gambling discussion
Re: Usyk - Dubois Rematch July 19 Undisputed Heavyweight, Wembley, London
by
pawel7777
on 20/07/2025, 14:59:15 UTC
Well Usyk is not an amateur that should be intimidated by the home crowd. The Man has fought many battles in different territories and he always comes out victorious, so there was no amount of crowd that would have been there, that could have distracted the peoples champion. Even if Usyk was to fight Tyson Fury in the UK, he would've won still. Well Dubious tried but he wasn't up to the fight against the great champion Usyk. Congratulations to Usyk on his well deserved victory.

Dubois just didn't have the tools to defeat Usyk. No amount of training can significantly increase the speed or fight IQ. This is something you either have or you don't. Ring experience was also heavily in Usyk's favour. All Daniel could hope for was his strength advantage and some luck.
I expected Dubois to be a little bit more agressive and pressing forward more, but maybe his team figured that's what Usyk is expecting, so they went with more balanced strategy.

What's next for Usyk? Parker (currently holding an interim WBO belt) is an obvious choice, but it's not necessarily a super-exciting fight, so I wouldn't be too shocked if Usyk and his team decided to go with something else.
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Board Speculation
Re: Retail investors paticipation. How to monitor it?
by
pawel7777
on 20/07/2025, 14:41:16 UTC
App store rankings! I've seen some posts about this on reddit, and there is some bot on telegram that tracks it but only for Coinbase. It is such an easy metric. If you can find data on appstore rankings for previous cycles you will see that this is one of the best if not the best indicator by far.

Yeah, it's already mentioned in the posts above.
It's not necessarily what I was asking in the OP, but historically it was a good metric to monitor the market getting overheated and to decide when the peak of the cycle was. But I don't think this metric will work forever. First of all, the old retail investors likely already have crypto apps installed. Second, Coinbase is no longer as much of a hegemon as it used to be. Looking at the data:
https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone/finance-apps/6015?chart=top-free
we can see that Crypto.com or Kraken are not far behind, meaning the popularity can be more split over a few crypto apps, unlike in the past when it was concentrated in Coinbase.
Thirdly, other non-crypto financial apps now also offer crypto investing, so people could just stick to them for convenience.
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Re: 🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread
by
pawel7777
on 20/07/2025, 14:28:09 UTC
Poirier and Holloway didn't disappoint.
It looked for a moment that Max was about to get the KO early in the first, but Dustin survived and the show went on.
That was a very good retirement fight for Dustin, maybe it's even better for him that he didn't win as that would probably plant some doubt in his head on whether the decision to retire was premature. It's not a loss that he would be ashamed of anyway.

What's next for Max? Hard to say. He's not going to get a title shot against Topuria (even if, ranking-wise, he's in a good position for that) as they fought fairly recently and it was a one-sided show. He's unlikely to move back down to featherweight to challange Volkanovski, as they already fought 3 times, although who knows, it might not be the worst idea.
I think you would stay at 155 where he still have some good options. He could get a fight with Oliveira, he defeated him once in 2015, so it could be hyped on that. Or he could get Tsarukyan or better yet Dan Hooker for the BMF belt, which is a fight I wouldn't mind seeing.