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It occurred to me that there is a simple way to predict the price of bitcoin.
Start with the equation V = U + R*P, where
V is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) disbursed by new investors (in $/day);
U is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) collected by holders who are divesting ($/day;
R is the block reward volume, now 3600 (BTC/day); and
P is the current price ($/BTC).
From that we get P = (V - U)/R.
Now you only need to predict V and U.
Start with the equation V = U + R*P, where
V is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) disbursed by new investors (in $/day);
U is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) collected by holders who are divesting ($/day;
R is the block reward volume, now 3600 (BTC/day); and
P is the current price ($/BTC).
From that we get P = (V - U)/R.
Now you only need to predict V and U.
You have invested in a pyramid and come up with some formulas??? Come on!! Open your eyes. This ship will sink. I said it when it was above 1000 dollars, and I will say it again at 200 dollars.
It has collapsed many times, and it recovery quickly.
Yes: In the beginning of a pyramid there are still plenty of new fools you can convince to buy from you your hot potato (i.e. your bitcoin).
Eventually however the pyramid cant be sustained anymore, as no new fools can be found to bail out the old ones.
This is what happened to bitcoin: It skyrocketet (with temporary corrections) and now has collapsed, burning a unprecedented number of people. Due to the extensive coverage of the rise and crash of bitcoin, and the significant number of people who now sit on losses, it is very unlikely that the pyramid can be inflated again.
I dont want to say I told you so, but the price has indeed collapsed since I started this thread at the highs in December 2013.
However it is not over yet. It will go down to single digits and lower (eventually zero is a fair valuation).
If you want a summary of my reasoning read the my first post and this one:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361037.msg3926046#msg3926046
However it is not over yet. It will go down to single digits and lower (eventually zero is a fair valuation).
If you want a summary of my reasoning read the my first post and this one:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361037.msg3926046#msg3926046
I think the increasing bid depth is taking everyone by surprise. It didn't reach ATHs like this in April/May. This will continue to push the price up, until it doesn't, and the whale decides that it's harvesting time.
Consistently astute posts.....a fkn rarity in here.
Bitcoin market is essentially determined by a handful of early adopter whales who may or may not act in line with 'news events' when they decide its pump or harvest time. In the meantime, the 99% sit redrawing lines on their tech analysis charts, and scrutinising news events or propaganda put out by exchanges such as Gox.
Guess what.. we haven't really "lost China". There are still Chinese exchanges doing high volumes, and btcchina is still pushing these little rallies. So what happens when we REALLY lose China? Or next time btcchina starts plunging again?
Shhh! Stop fkn with peoples delusions. We have had enough down time around here as it is. If Bitcoin Nutter says that China is over and all the negativity has been priced into the market and has indeed been overreacted to (hence drop to $380), then that is how it is. Bitcoin to slowly rise from here, to about $1500 by end of Jan 2014. $10,000 by Jan 2015, at which I point I will buy myself a Lexus.
Comprende?
Lol nice one. The 10.000 price tag by the end of next year is a COMMON theme of bitcoiners. A small minority is even hoping for the 100.000 price tag within one year. Delusional. Once the whales start dumping and no new money enters this whole charade will come crashing down.
You might believe that my arguments are not substantial, however that is only your viewpoint. People who were invested in the housing bubble or the Nasdaq stock market bubble, also thought that there were no substantial counter arguments. Otherwise they would have divested.
I didn't even find an argument, some description of future bitcoin sentiment decline and an outrageous price prediction - pretty good summary of your first post. Posts of so little substance are usually posted to start a flame. Also, numerous references to "read my posts history", this is neither polite nor would anyone really care enough.
Read my book if you want to know why.
Get it in your head. This is a speculation thread. I have provided TWO LINKS above with detailed back up. You are pathetic.
Another Hero member, shaming posters who disagree with bitcoin. If somebody is posting bullish price projections you applaud from the sidelines. So transparent.
No shaming, it seems logical when people believe in what they are saying and can back it up. You are stating certain bold predictions about bitcoin price, which seem outrageous at the moment, but you have nothing to back it up, therefore trolling? We need to establish that
You see, while it might seem to you that your position is somehow fresh or original, we here witness trolls going back to 2011 who declare bitcoin as dead just because they can't understand the idea. None so far was ready to back it up with something substantial, though. Needless to say, none was right so far, too.
We will see who is right. My price prediction (below 10 dollars) is only consequential, as I dont believe Bitcoin will work. I have backed up my statements with reasoning (provided in the two links above). You might believe that my arguments are not substantial, however that is only your viewpoint. People who were invested in the housing bubble or the Nasdaq stock market bubble, also thought that there were no substantial counter arguments. Otherwise they would have divested.
You do engage in shaming tactics, as you immediately brand mark bears as trolls and state that I dont back up my statements, even though I have provided 2 links with detailed reasoning (and you can find even more if you browse my post history). This attack line is something you reserve for bears.
In this thread I have described a switch in mentality which I anticipate will take place in future. It is a speculation thread. Detailed back up for my position is provided in the economics threads (and these are easily identifiable via the post history). Thus the following statement ("Your topic would have much more weight than a fart in the water that it is now.") is a a shaming tactic.
Even more absurd is the previous poster, who criticizes my arguments from his high horse, while not even grasping their content!
Bitcoin below 10 dollars in 2014.
Oh prophet, here is your path to great riches then: http://bitbet.us/bet/672/btc-will-hit-1000-without-dropping-to-100/
Yeah, I know it is unfair if you don't believe in the BTC future. Here's a fairer deal - pick a trusted community member, escrow him any amount of BTC you want, and I will send him the same amount of fiat at the current rate. In case bitcoin reaches $10 in 2014, you get my fiat. I get your BTC otherwise. Deal?
Your topic would have much more weight than a fart in the water that it is now. You can show you really believe what you type here.
Another Hero member, shaming posters who disagree with bitcoin. If somebody is posting bullish price projections you applaud from the sidelines. So transparent.
After looking at your argument, it appears to be mostly assumption and presumption.
Are you a merchant accepting bitcoin? If so, you can speak to your own experience, but you cannot assume that all merchants are instantly dumping bitcoin for fiat. While I am not a merchant, I do use my bitcoin income to purchase items, rather than just exchanging them for fiat.
Governments expect taxes on all income. Why would bitcoin be different? Are you saying that USD can't function as a medium of exchange because governments expect taxes to be paid when you gain USD?
You can't overgeneralize. Some governments may. Other governments have already accepted bitcoin as a good idea.
Your earlier arguments already have flaws, so this conclusion is not valid.
This paragraph reads like a combination of FUD combined with wild generalized assumptions.
I'm not saying you're wrong about the exchange rate of bitcoin dropping. But your arguments are flawed.
I do wonder what your motivation is for these posts. Why come to a Bitcoin forum and try to spread a message that we're all doomed? Unless you're just trying to stir up an argument. At that, my friend, is the definition of a troll.
Bitcoin is going up in price because people believe it will be used as a medium of exchange and store of value. If they realise this wont happen it will collapse in price. So lets look at these two aspects.
1) Medium of exchange.
Bitcoin is only a medium of exchange when merchants accept it and hold onto it. Right now merchants are dumping bitcoin for dollars, so its not being used as a medium of exchange. This btw. also throws the transaction cost benefit argument right out of the window (spread).
1) Medium of exchange.
Bitcoin is only a medium of exchange when merchants accept it and hold onto it. Right now merchants are dumping bitcoin for dollars, so its not being used as a medium of exchange. This btw. also throws the transaction cost benefit argument right out of the window (spread).
Are you a merchant accepting bitcoin? If so, you can speak to your own experience, but you cannot assume that all merchants are instantly dumping bitcoin for fiat. While I am not a merchant, I do use my bitcoin income to purchase items, rather than just exchanging them for fiat.
Now will merchants ever accept bitcoin and hold onto them?
No.
Why?
a) Governments have already effectively made it impossible for people to use bitcoin as a medium of exchange, as they expect taxes to be paid on bitcoin gains. Thus it cant function as a medium of exchange (same goes for gold btw.). Unless Government loses its control on its money monopoly this law wont be altered.
No.
Why?
a) Governments have already effectively made it impossible for people to use bitcoin as a medium of exchange, as they expect taxes to be paid on bitcoin gains. Thus it cant function as a medium of exchange (same goes for gold btw.). Unless Government loses its control on its money monopoly this law wont be altered.
Governments expect taxes on all income. Why would bitcoin be different? Are you saying that USD can't function as a medium of exchange because governments expect taxes to be paid when you gain USD?
b) Governments will prohibt merchants from accepting bitcoins. Again: They will never give up their monoply on money.
You can't overgeneralize. Some governments may. Other governments have already accepted bitcoin as a good idea.
2) Store of Value
After people realize that merchants are not adopting bitcoin and that it is not used as a medium of exchange, it will collapse in price. Will anybody store significant wealth in Bitcoin after this spectacular collapse? Not likely.
After people realize that merchants are not adopting bitcoin and that it is not used as a medium of exchange, it will collapse in price. Will anybody store significant wealth in Bitcoin after this spectacular collapse? Not likely.
Your earlier arguments already have flaws, so this conclusion is not valid.
Also Bitcoin is a technology, that can be outcompeted by other altcoins. Your wallet can be hacked. The average citizen cant judge if the code can or can not be hacked and thus more bitcoins created. If you want to store wealth over a long period of time investing in a technology is not the best and easiest option. Also Bitcoin is not useful or wanted. If you ask a Bitcoiner what can I do with it they will say: dump it on the next guy it will go up in price! Gold and Silver where always wanted (jewlery and nowadays industry) and thats why they became MONEY in the first place! They have unique properties and everybody love to hold them in their hand. This will always be the case ensuring significant value and acceptance. Nothing like this can be said for bitcoins. Thus I dont believe bitcoin will function as a store of value in any significant way.
This paragraph reads like a combination of FUD combined with wild generalized assumptions.
I'm not saying you're wrong about the exchange rate of bitcoin dropping. But your arguments are flawed.
I do wonder what your motivation is for these posts. Why come to a Bitcoin forum and try to spread a message that we're all doomed? Unless you're just trying to stir up an argument. At that, my friend, is the definition of a troll.
Try to understand my arguments before posting. You have not grasped any arguments under 1). The Arguments under 2) are summarized more clearly in the second link (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361037.msg3926046#msg3926046) which you ignored. It is laughable that you call my "earlier arguments flawed", as you did not understand them in the first place.
"Bitcoin is rat poison".
Rat poison is a useful tool as it removes unwanted vermin.
IT'S A COMPLIMENT TOWARDS BITCOIN YOU DUMB ARSE TROLL.
LOL, OP you've just made yourself look a right dick.
LOL
Rat poison is a useful tool as it removes unwanted vermin.
IT'S A COMPLIMENT TOWARDS BITCOIN YOU DUMB ARSE TROLL.
LOL, OP you've just made yourself look a right dick.
LOL
LOL you idiot.
The title was humorous and that was the joke about it!
LOL. Point is: They see it as a competition. They wont let it in, because they know it might remove their power (=rat poison
). 1) Sound money is money you can buy something with. So the gains in bitcoin are not fake. They are REAL. Real wealth is being created. Even if Bitcoin went to zero, some people become much better off financially in the process. 2) You are butthurt. And you have nothing to contribute.
3) Here's an idea. If you are interested in "sound money," go make some. Troll.
1) I can buy stuff with dollars, does that make them sound money? Lets agree to disagree on the soundness of bitcoin. In my opinion the gains in bitcoin are not real because it is a pyramid. Again we will have to agree to disagree
2) I dont know why you feel the need to attack me personally instead of making a substantive argument (as I have done in numerous other threads).
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361037.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=361037.msg3926046#msg3926046
Now you might not think I am correct. But that I contribute nothing while you are contributing information of great value is absurd. Get off your high horse and stop being emotional. We disagree on a investment decision.
Also you thinking America is the most powerful nation is foolish. America is going to collapse in the next decade. Again, once it happens you might think differently about my contribution. Same goes with bitcoin.
3) I dont see how you have a right to tell me what to do. Calling anybody who disagrees a troll and shaming him, has dictatorial tendencies.
You know, instead of coming up with weak theories about why Bitcoin can't work, if you had actually invested heavily in it when you found out about it you would be very well off now. Instead, you're just butthurt and lonely. And your contribution to this world is spending time trolling a bitcoin (which you claim is useless) forum.
Way to go. You are a real success.
LOL at you guys calling anybody who criticizes bitcoin a troll. I am interested in the topic sound money. I dont believe in bitcoin. I am not butthurt for missing out on bitcoin gains (which I believe are fake as most people will lose a lot of money and only a few will gain tremendously). I never said this forum is useless, as it is discussing important topics (state, economics, and money). You are pathetic.
We will see how successful your investment in bitcoin will be. He who laughs last laughs best. Now you call me a troll who contributes nothing to this forum (but disinformation and FUD). Lets see what happens in 2014.
Now I know why you are so hostile towards me. I called you out on your we Americans are the most powerful and greatest on earth BULLSHIT. Must be harsh, I challenge two of your delusions (bitcoin and the US):
LOL @ China being the most powerful country in the world. The most powerful country in the world is AMERICA. Deal with it. We control the money and the military and because of that, we control the oil. Our government and regulators and innovators have given the "ok" to bitcoin.
Come to think about it, instead of meeting you, we will just wave to you above $2000 in 2014.
Lol. You are praising a falling star (crashing would be more accuarte).
The US is the biggest debtor of them all. Huge liabilities, big government mentality, anti free market philosophy is on the rise and Obama is a socialist in office. The FED is printing like there is no tomorrow. Americans consume (debt financed) but save and produce nothing.
China on the other hand is one of the largest creditors, is liberating its markets (as it has been burned by communism), and is actually moving away from the dollar (China has been propping up US consumption and living standards). Once the yuan is free floating (not pegged to the dollar) and once the dollar crashes, you will hopefully wake up! The Chinese save (one of the highest saving rates in the world) and produce!
China is the future.
Even bigger LOL at you thinking that the US government will be more friendly to bitcoin, if it feels threatened by it (dollar monopoly=power remember?).
Why China is the most important market of the 21st century.
China is the next great nation. It is becoming more and more free market; after being burnt by communism they have learned their lesson. The Chinese are highly productive and have a high savings rate. China is one of the largest creditor nations on earth. Chinese don't cry for government, but rely on their savings and family if they are in need. They have great plans for the yuan and are slowly moving away from the dollar peg and treasuries. Their currency will rise dramatically once it is allowed to float freely. The dollar wont be propped up and Americans will have to live within their means.
America, a thing of the past.
America is a thing of the past. It is the biggest debtor with huge unfunded liabilities. Its citizens consume but save and produce nothing. They are deeply in debt. They are living of the dollars status and Chinese productivity. The US is becoming more and more socialist. Responsibilities are delegated to the government. The first question we often hear from US citizens is: "How can government help me?". The US dollar is being printed like it is going out of style.
Bitcoins, dead on arrival in the most important market on earth: China.
Bitcoins are not tolerated in one of the great nations of this century. This is a huge issue many of you guys are ignoring. The Chinese will see a RISING yuan and thus a exploding living standard. They wont look for alternatives like bitcoin. The Chinese government has great plans for its currency and it will be a new power tool (like the dollar has been). They wont allow bitcoin to get in the way and thus have prohibited it. If bitcoin is not dead in China yet, the government will keep beating it into the ground, until Bitcoin stops making any sort of noise that might distract from the almighty yuan. As the Chinese will have relatively sound money (yuan), they wont be challenging their government regarding bitcoin.
Bitcoin not having any foothold in the most important market is a huge deal.
The US: dictatorships concentrate power.
The US will become more and more dictatorial. Dictatorships concentrate power and abuse their currency. They hate competition and decentralization. Bitcoin will be treated just as harshly as in China. Mark my word.
DISCLOSURE: I dont believe Bitcoin is viable, even if it were allowed to compete.
China is the next great nation. It is becoming more and more free market; after being burnt by communism they have learned their lesson. The Chinese are highly productive and have a high savings rate. China is one of the largest creditor nations on earth. Chinese don't cry for government, but rely on their savings and family if they are in need. They have great plans for the yuan and are slowly moving away from the dollar peg and treasuries. Their currency will rise dramatically once it is allowed to float freely. The dollar wont be propped up and Americans will have to live within their means.
America, a thing of the past.
America is a thing of the past. It is the biggest debtor with huge unfunded liabilities. Its citizens consume but save and produce nothing. They are deeply in debt. They are living of the dollars status and Chinese productivity. The US is becoming more and more socialist. Responsibilities are delegated to the government. The first question we often hear from US citizens is: "How can government help me?". The US dollar is being printed like it is going out of style.
Bitcoins, dead on arrival in the most important market on earth: China.
Bitcoins are not tolerated in one of the great nations of this century. This is a huge issue many of you guys are ignoring. The Chinese will see a RISING yuan and thus a exploding living standard. They wont look for alternatives like bitcoin. The Chinese government has great plans for its currency and it will be a new power tool (like the dollar has been). They wont allow bitcoin to get in the way and thus have prohibited it. If bitcoin is not dead in China yet, the government will keep beating it into the ground, until Bitcoin stops making any sort of noise that might distract from the almighty yuan. As the Chinese will have relatively sound money (yuan), they wont be challenging their government regarding bitcoin.
Bitcoin not having any foothold in the most important market is a huge deal.
The US: dictatorships concentrate power.
The US will become more and more dictatorial. Dictatorships concentrate power and abuse their currency. They hate competition and decentralization. Bitcoin will be treated just as harshly as in China. Mark my word.
DISCLOSURE: I dont believe Bitcoin is viable, even if it were allowed to compete.
The government of the most powerful country in the world just basically shut down the largest Bitcoin exchange in the world and this is it? We are back? Amusing.
We are going a long way down now. This seems to be just the start of government regulation.
We are going a long way down now. This seems to be just the start of government regulation.
+1
See you guys sub $10 in 2014.
Ok Porc. See you in regret land.
LOL @ China being the most powerful country in the world. The most powerful country in the world is AMERICA. Deal with it. We control the money and the military and because of that, we control the oil. Our government and regulators and innovators have given the "ok" to bitcoin.
Come to think about it, instead of meeting you, we will just wave to you above $2000 in 2014.
Lol. You are praising a falling star (crashing would be more accuarte).
The US is the biggest debtor of them all. Huge liabilities, big government mentality, anti free market philosophy is on the rise and Obama is a socialist in office. The FED is printing like there is no tomorrow. Americans consume (debt financed) but save and produce nothing.
China on the other hand is one of the largest creditors, is liberating its markets (as it has been burned by communism), and is actually moving away from the dollar (China has been propping up US consumption and living standards). Once the yuan is free floating (not pegged to the dollar) and once the dollar crashes, you will hopefully wake up! The Chinese save (one of the highest saving rates in the world) and produce!
China is the future.
Even bigger LOL at you thinking that the US government will be more friendly to bitcoin, if it feels threatened by it (dollar monopoly=power remember?).
The government of the most powerful country in the world just basically shut down the largest Bitcoin exchange in the world and this is it? We are back? Amusing.
We are going a long way down now. This seems to be just the start of government regulation.
We are going a long way down now. This seems to be just the start of government regulation.
+1
See you guys sub $10 in 2014.
Higher than the max value you put on the vote so I can't vote
date: 31.12.2014
So you are going to say that it will be above $100.000 in one year?
Hint: I predict a meltdown, you predict a boom. Why is your post full of wisdom, while I am posting trite? My scenario is that bitcoin cant work, thus goes into single digits/cents. Your scenario (boom), cant be connected to a concrete price (or its much harder).
1) Please explain your "can't work" scenario better.
2) Later you said "already had massive media coverage" but although I can't prove it, I really think that many of us here, with our noses in it every day, are under the illusion that every Tom, Dick and Harry in the world knows about Bitcoin, knows how to buy a Bitcoin, knows how a Bitcoin works, etc. I honestly believe that such a person is relatively rare on this planet at the moment.
For example, I live and work in Belgium in Europe, and I can tell you that no-one in the office here knows about Bitcoin. The one person I started talking to about it had not heard about it and looked confused. And he is on the internet every day (but browsing in French).
Although we (please excuse my talking for everybody) have Bitcoin on the brain, search for news etc, most people do not. And media coverage is fickle: it takes many repeats for it to sink in en masse.
Why "Bitcoin can't work"? Please explain more clearly.
1) Check out my post history.
2) In the US, bitcoin has been on front covers of main stream newspapers/magazines. Every tv news station has reported on it. Most precious metals investors know about it. Maybe the bubble can be reflated one more time. However I think in 2014 it will collapse.
Do people realise this is for 2014? So 1 year from now?
Lets go wild...
$1650 Bitstamp
Lets go wild...
$1650 Bitstamp
Lol, good point. I didn't even notice it was for 2014.
Poll has already failed because lots of people are voting for the price 10 days from now.
The options only make sense if you give it 1 year ( at least
). Quote
What price? Approx. (price closest wins, post exact price and explanation if you want to go public )
$854 MtGox
What wins closest price prediction?
yes.
Nice voting options, I almost selected $100.000 because of the unrealistic options. But I selected $625
every opinion expressed on this board is represented.
I may not know if bitcoin will fail... but this thread definitely will.
I think it will be interesting in one year, its a small glimpse of the sentiment today. The more participate the better.