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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
He says buy orders are working fine but sells are not.
lol what i really don't get is the difference to situation during april.
gox has constantly lost volume since then and yet they still struggle to keep their shit running.
no other exchange had problems in goxlike dimensions. (i saw some lag on stamp, but not that bad)
The good folks at Gox are pioneers in the field of incompetency.
It actually astonishes me that http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_running doesn't get talked about more.
Fuck those guys.
Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
ummm, the same thing is going on at bitstamp. slow and steady stream of 1 btc sells.
This is a steady stream of buys. These trades aren't originated by sellers because the seller's orders are being hit all the time. Someone is accumulating a large holding and does not want to do the usual whale splash of ripping up the ask wall.
Those were buys on stamp, and sells on gox.
You can't see it now though as it seems to have stopped.
I wonder if someone is succesfully getting USD out of gox and is trying to arbitrage while minimising slippage. Or gox themselves are.
We'll see if it starts again.
Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
There is no way they wanted people to know about prism etc. No way. They're spooks. Spooks keep shit secret. That's an important thing. Why would they let the cat out of the bag for a such a spurious project? Even if they do have bigger stuff that we don't know anything about, which they most likely do, it's still a chump move to let everyone know about stuff as big as this. Once everyone starts tightening their shit up, it hurts their ability to do what they like doing and is their number one reason to exist, which is spying on people. The loss is bigger than the gain.
Sorry, I just don't buy it. Trying to find a shitty conspiracy behind an actual major shit's going down sort of conspiracy just seems a touch excessive.
Sorry, I just don't buy it. Trying to find a shitty conspiracy behind an actual major shit's going down sort of conspiracy just seems a touch excessive.
It is actually not the purview of the NSA to do PSYOPs like thisbut it is the purview of the CIA, and Snowden has CIA connections. And it is not always as clear cut as taking actions which clearly serve a clear agenda. Quite the contrary. Black ops usually have the appearance of originating from a hostile actor.
Revolutionaries are not the only ones who have studied Hegel.
Ok, I'll bite.
So.. let's play this out. Snowden was leaking about NSA on behalf of the CIA. CIA want to achieve some sort of real effect in the world via this, through setting up a dialectical response from the world at large.
I'm trying to follow this through, but you might need to hold my hand through it. What is this effect and why do the CIA want it? People tighten up their security? Which people? Corporates? Why does the CIA care?
Create a feeling of paranoia and insecurity? Which dialectically does what? One would think it would make people more, rather than less, likely to resist? Aaaaaand...... that's what they want? So they get more powers?
It's a bold argument. I like it. Still not sure I agree though.
Also, probably worth saying, not sure if any revolutionaries are still into Hegel. (Zizek doesn't count). I thought it was more about Deleuze these days. You could be right though, what with the state = manifestation of universal spirit thing, CIA dudes with the time for reading philosophy probably would get a hard on for him. It's a funny thing to contemplate.
Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
Another Snowden leak today. This one regards NSA's ability to hack into almost all, if not all, smartphones. Like the last leak, this one suggests the NSA's decryption power is much greater than we realize.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/privacy-scandal-nsa-can-spy-on-smart-phone-data-a-920971.html
http://www.theverge.com/2013/9/7/4706018/nsa-reportedly-can-access-secure-blackberry-email-tap-other
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/09/08/links-08-sept-the-weekends-nsa-revelations/
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/privacy-scandal-nsa-can-spy-on-smart-phone-data-a-920971.html
http://www.theverge.com/2013/9/7/4706018/nsa-reportedly-can-access-secure-blackberry-email-tap-other
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/09/08/links-08-sept-the-weekends-nsa-revelations/
That's not any different than what Bruce Schneier has been telling us for decades now.
Not news to those who have been paying attention.
I was obviously using "we" to refer to general public, YOU PRETENTIOUS COMMIE!!
http://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg12325.html
What is your point? To any reasonable person, this was all speculative tin-foil hat stuff until Snowden.
You have a fetish for polluting my posts.
my posts too. Seems being an oracle gives the ability to discern between the thousand of "rat in coke can" schemes around the world and "knowing" like your own hand what is really happening/true/fact and what are just rumours/whispers.
What can I say?
I am a centre of pestilence.
Not true, you have absolutely useful opinions and threads that simply one need to read. Just a lower a bit the "I knew it" button when the others also talk and you will be become the greatest oracle ;-)
Cheers,
Well then, If I may knock myself down from the pinnacle of oricality, I'll keep my tinfoil hat on a bit longer...
Snowden is a tool. In my considered opinion the Snowden revelations are part of an operation to bludgeon the corporate world, along with the general public into investing resources into actual, effective IT security. The NSA has a stake in protecting their charge against rival gangs. And, although I think it is a mistake to equivocate on security to this end they are attempting to calibrate their advantage.
It might very well be the truth. Just some Sun Tzu "confuse your enemy" thinking. It would give everybody the idea that they need to increase their defenses. But thinking on the possibility that what they know it is not true and its just a bluff maybe they want to do the opposite, that is discourage everyone from even trying to avoid NSA, and stop being diligent on your own security. Most people don't know too much about computer security and even if they do, the revelations show a huge enemy to beat, so they will just surrender and say, "be it", if you use computers, then there is no privacy why i am going to follow those huge security procedures if they are already in, by hardware, at network level (IP v6), by OS, by force, by keylogger, by the very own software you use. Why lose so much time? Many people will think that and abandon themselves to the "maybe truth" that they have just won.
Also there seems to exist indeed an interest in the USA agencies to reduce the people privacy and that is one of the reasons why CIA investing companies invested in google and in facebooks (the second being a declared paradigm of antiprivacy). What was their reaction to Zimmerman PGP, their export limitations for encryption over 128 bits and many more?. They indeed want to know everything like the "Awareness" agency name suggests.
One thing is true, and this is that the computer and internet industry has received a huge kick in their balls. American companies relying on "the cloud" aswell as those relying on "security" (and probably technology manufacturers whose products won't be seen as innocent as have been seen up to now) are being seen now like pure fraud all over the world and they are loosing billions and billions on contracts. Again, some might say "I alrady knew it". I would say, you "suspected something" in the lines of the thousand of rumours around the world everywhere. But with this revelations (if true) show that they are indeed doing it.
So, did they encourage Snowden to go into the air with those documents, hurting hugely their own computer/internet industry trying to follow the path to get everybody into a higher security? Could be.
Maybe, knowing that they already controlled those companies they could have just issued some laws to encourage much more secure policies in facebook, google, etc and those would have been just followed by the users all over the world (like when lately most companies have started relying in 2-step authentication) without destroying or putting in severe risk their whole own IT industry. I think Google, Apple, Yahoo, etc are indeed not happy. They have moved from the colourful letter kindergarten logo (google) to a Stasi machine. Many have abandoned those companies for good.
I think what German officers are trying to do regarding IT security after snowden revelations, might be a good step to follow. Encourage everyone using policies all over the European Union at least not only to increase their software/internet security but do it from the very scratch, designing everything with the highest privacy levels in mind (e.g client based encryption). India is moving apart from US technology, not only they requested to have their own google servers located in their own soil so US law does not apply. They are also asking people to stop using gmail for state storage (Google Apps won't like that). New Zealand and Germany have stopped following software patents aswell (that will help).
So maybe they have managed to get higher security levels but not only in the western world, but all over the world (even China/Russia etc) and also really hitting hard their own IT industry.
I think it would be a mistake to presume that U.S. interests are so well defined by national boundaries. The business interests of U.S. chartered entities are all very well intertwined with those of other players. I would liken these kinds of operations to the 'direct action' of anti-establishment protesters. To force a dialectic outside the usual bounds of explicit process. These technocrats have a vision for what security should look like, and will steer their considerable resources to that end. You knowbreaking eggs and all that.
Ok, a bit OT now, but hold on a sec...
Correct me if I'm wrong, but are you arguing that, basically, NSA set up the whole Snowden thing so that corporates would freak out and tighten their security. Because NSA protects the interests of corporates?
I'm sorry, this seems a little bit tinfoilish to me.
If that was the agenda, would it not be easier to just set up some fake attacks? Let some of their smart kids loose to unleash hell on a few selected targets. Everyone would love it. There'd be joy and hilarity at NSA! And it's cheaper and less damaging to their own interests. Attacks with malicious intent are what corporates are scared of. Not the NSA. As you argue yourself, the NSA is on their side, basically. And as a lot of people have said there's that dynamic of, ok so now we know they have just about universal reach, so why do anything?
Fuck, or even just break in, and tell people, hey we broke in. This is how we did it. This is what you need to do. Set up some sort of advisory service that works with people to tighten their shit up. Whatever. Doesn't seem hard to do.
There is no way they wanted people to know about prism etc. No way. They're spooks. Spooks keep shit secret. That's an important thing. Why would they let the cat out of the bag for a such a spurious project? Even if they do have bigger stuff that we don't know anything about, which they most likely do, it's still a chump move to let everyone know about stuff as big as this. Once everyone starts tightening their shit up, it hurts their ability to do what they like doing and is their number one reason to exist, which is spying on people. The loss is bigger than the gain.
Sorry, I just don't buy it. Trying to find a shitty conspiracy behind an actual major shit's going down sort of conspiracy just seems a touch excessive.
Re: Breaking news: Poland confiscates private pension funds
You're wrong actually because all state run pension funds are nothing but ponzi schemes. In the end the people get totally screwed. In a state run pension fund no money actually exists, money is paid as new tax money comes in. By contrast in a private pension fund money is actually there, invested in different company shares, bonds, equity and such.
It's HUGE difference!
It's HUGE difference!
Yeah, sure, that can happen. But it's not as black and white as that. In this case particularly, for the time being, there are some sort of real assets that exist. State run pensions aren't necessarily paid just out of taxes. Here's an example: http://www.government.se/sb/d/15473/a/183496. Sure, they could get looted down the track, but that's not inherent in the fact that it is state run.
Not sure if its inherently wiser to put trust in a large private financial institution to hold onto people's money and look after their best interest over several decades over a state run one, personally. There's certainly been no lack of private funds where the money somehow disappears into somebody's pocket.
Since when are we all about cheering for large private financial institutions, anyway? Fuck them in their profit motive, parasitic faces I say.
Worth adding though, the way things are going I wouldn't be putting too much stock in either long term.
Re: Breaking news: Poland confiscates private pension funds
You've wrote first "fake" then edited with new text.
I misinterpreted. I was thinking they confiskated private money, while it wasn't.That's difference between Cyprus.
Yeah. This is not at all the same as Cyprus. Not at all.
Cyprus = state takes private money for itself.
Poland = state takes pension money from private pension funds who manage it on behalf of private individuals so that it will be managed by a state institution instead. On behalf of the private individuals.
Ok, if you've got an anti-statist thing going on ideologically, sure ok, you might see this as a problem. But there's no sense in which the money has been taken from the people who it actually belongs to ie. the people who are supposed to get paid out by the pension.
Sure, that could happen later. But that's not what's happened here.
ITT I see people confused wealth with money supply. Nobody rich has any significant portion of their wealth in currency, they have their wealth in appreciating assets (companies, bonds, equities, commodities, royalty contracts, precious metals, etc). Even if Bitcoin replaced all forms of currency on the planet it would still be a small % of the wealth in the world. The Bitcoin "rich" would diversify into other assets and the distribution of the money supply would become more diverse.
The total global wealth is ~$233T.
The total global currency (M0) is ~$5T.
Say Bitcoin replaces all other forms of currency (a pipe dream) and the value of all Bitcoins is is someday worth ~$5T. Lets also assume the richest Bitcoiner alive has 10% of that or ~$0.5T worth. Yes $500B is a large amount, but it is <0.2% of the world's wealth. That would also assume the "Bitcoin rich" never exchange Bitcoins for goods/service or other fiat currency along the way. I think it is hillariously funny to imagine some fiat broke, Bitcoin rich guy living in his mom's basement refusing to liquidate 10% of his coins because they are "only" worth a million USD "but mom someday I could be a trillionaire, how stupid would it be to sell now for mere millions".
The total global wealth is ~$233T.
The total global currency (M0) is ~$5T.
Say Bitcoin replaces all other forms of currency (a pipe dream) and the value of all Bitcoins is is someday worth ~$5T. Lets also assume the richest Bitcoiner alive has 10% of that or ~$0.5T worth. Yes $500B is a large amount, but it is <0.2% of the world's wealth. That would also assume the "Bitcoin rich" never exchange Bitcoins for goods/service or other fiat currency along the way. I think it is hillariously funny to imagine some fiat broke, Bitcoin rich guy living in his mom's basement refusing to liquidate 10% of his coins because they are "only" worth a million USD "but mom someday I could be a trillionaire, how stupid would it be to sell now for mere millions".
Good arithmetic here, but: There is a reason the welthy, and most other people for that part, have little money and lots of stuff. The reason is the inflation. What you call appreciating assets, is mostly inflation-safe assets. With sound money it is different, you don't have to panic buy these assets, therefore the demand for sound money might be higher than for fiat money, supporting a higher money value.
Yeah, maybe. But not only. Money doesn't do anything until you spend it. If you have companies and assets, you can do things with them. Very few people want to sit there on a big pile of wealth and watch television. People become wealthy and powerful because they like being wealthy and powerful, and exerting that power to arrange the world to their advantage. A big pile of bitcoins might help you do that, but it's not the end in itself. At least not for most people, I would guess.
That I think is a rarely expressed reason for why the argument against deflationary currency falls down, apart from the fact of "needing to spend". It assumes a "rational economic actor" that just wants to maximise. People are a bit more complicated than that. Yeah sure, maximisation of wealth is important to a lot of people, and especially for the type of people that claw their way to the top of the heap. But it is no way the only thing driving people. That's why a lot of people don't tend to stop at the point when they can do buy whatever they want. The exercise of power that huge wealth gives you is an end in itself.
How do you know the people with most coins are "from libertarian circles"?
Nakamoto is. DPR is. Peter Tiel is. Heaps of early adapters are.Quote
There are lots of hints pointing to the opposite, and until we know the truth I rather assume the worst case.
And even this imaginary worst case is much better than our current case. The democracy you support gives most of world's power to one single person. BTW, this person is considering new invasion right now. Would starting a war become easier for him if % of libertarians in US Senate changes from current state to, say, % of libertarians in this forum?How long do you think that one person would continue to have that power if he went against the interests of his wealthy and powerful backers? About 5 seconds. He is a puppet, albeit a willing and enthusiastic one.
No, money isn't power. But it helps.
I have a lot of agreement with libertarian ideals, but the individualism and love of guns that seems to often come with it seem a bit weird to me, and may not mix well with huge wealth. I wouldn't count on the politics of those holding power to prevent its abuse. Usually, the people that are the surest of the goodness of their own intentions cause the most trouble for everyone else.
But yeah, agreed that basically, whatever. Its not like a high price would last all that long if all of a sudden kazillions of sleeping bitcoins started moving. The point at which it would (ie. the bitcoin economy is MUCH bigger than now) is a long long way off, and may never be reached. A lot can happen between now and then, and I think, all said, this is one of the less urgent threats to freedom facing most people right now.
I think Nakamoto's point about bitcoin being a way to "gain a new territory of freedom for several years" is a good one to remember. Power will always fuck people over when it gets established. The point is to keep knocking it down before it does. Right now, bitcoin might be part of the way to do that. At some point, just maybe, if it works out, it could itself be a problem. Whatever. We'll just have to work it out.
Re: CFTC Regulating Bitcoin, Totally sell on this news guys.
I don't buy the drugs argument.
Drugs are more expensive as as a result of government intervention because the demand for them hasn't gone down, but supply has. Their utility is the same as it always was.
Bitcoin's utility goes down the more difficult it is to obtain and use as a result of government intervention. So demand drops as well as supply (in the US at least). The ultimate effect on price is thus difficult to determine, and will be a result of the form any intervention takes, and the opportunities to use it cross border that remain.
Different story, entirely.
Drugs are more expensive as as a result of government intervention because the demand for them hasn't gone down, but supply has. Their utility is the same as it always was.
Bitcoin's utility goes down the more difficult it is to obtain and use as a result of government intervention. So demand drops as well as supply (in the US at least). The ultimate effect on price is thus difficult to determine, and will be a result of the form any intervention takes, and the opportunities to use it cross border that remain.
Different story, entirely.
tbh: 5 weeks ago I messaged one of these guys on ebay to negotiate a better price for 4 arduino nano clones by going around ebay (I know, against ebay policy). He made a good price and I paypaled the money. No product arrived and no communication. I must say I'm glad he didn't take bitcoins. Now I can do a chargeback on paypal (hopefully they wont notice I violated eBay policy)... not possible with BTC.
Bitcoin technology contains more complex forms of transactions, for example, transactions with a third-party escrow function. We are currently not using bitcoin technology fully.
And even without that, you can have an escrow service like silkroad does. You pay SR, SR pays the seller when you say you've received your delivery. No reason why ebay couldn't include something like that down the track (apart from the fact that paypal probably would put pressure on them not to, of course).
There could even be room for someone to set up a pure 3rd party escrow service. They set up a transparent dispute resolution procedure, take a tiny bit off the top for themselves, and start working to building up a solid reputation. You buy things off ebay or whereever else, and use this well known third party to escrow the transaction. Could work.
Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
Some big folks really desperate to sell their coins at whatever price!
In what way is selling at the top of a 15% increase in less than a day "desperate" and "at whatever price"?
Seems like straight up profit taking to me.
Could even be the same people that started the rally. lol.
yeah.
When i did get in, it was also not showing my orders properly in the order list, although they were counted in the toolbar. So I couldn't change or cancel them. Freaked me out for a sec.
These guys are such pros.
When i did get in, it was also not showing my orders properly in the order list, although they were counted in the toolbar. So I couldn't change or cancel them. Freaked me out for a sec.
These guys are such pros.
I sold some at 95 a couple of days go when it first bounced, taking a reasonable profit based on average price paid. Could've made more if I sold earlier, or held for a better top, sure. But I made a call to reduce my risk when I could. I also still stand to lose a bit in $ terms if it goes right down, but my risk is lower, and it has to go a lot lower before that happens. At that point, I have $ to buy back in, and will probably come out smelling of roses in the long term anyway. If it goes back up now, also looking good in the long run based on what i'm holding.
it's a win win.
The risk was stressing me right the fuck out, now I'm happy either way. I have bitcoins to spend, and will probably make a profit in the long term. And I can buy more once we have the start of a fucking clue about what the hell is going on!!! lol!
fuck this greed bullshit. it's just a big stress. life's too short to stress 24/7 over a number on a chart. OH NOEZ.. THE SPECIAL NUMBER HAS CHANGING!!! lol.
it's a win win.
The risk was stressing me right the fuck out, now I'm happy either way. I have bitcoins to spend, and will probably make a profit in the long term. And I can buy more once we have the start of a fucking clue about what the hell is going on!!! lol!
fuck this greed bullshit. it's just a big stress. life's too short to stress 24/7 over a number on a chart. OH NOEZ.. THE SPECIAL NUMBER HAS CHANGING!!! lol.
Re: Bitcoins stolen from encrypted wallet? Or lost due to crash?
Looks promising, and probably worth a shot.
I haven't had to do it myself so not sure what the best way to do it is. Someone else might have some comments, and it might be worth searching around a bit more.
Just make sure you don't delete or overwrite any wallet.dat's at any point, corrupt or otherwise.
good luck!
I haven't had to do it myself so not sure what the best way to do it is. Someone else might have some comments, and it might be worth searching around a bit more.
Just make sure you don't delete or overwrite any wallet.dat's at any point, corrupt or otherwise.
good luck!
Raising the 21 million limit is against the interest of anyone who is holding coins as it would devalue the currency. So it's fairly unlikely that the majority would agree to do it I would guess. All miners MIGHT (although it seems unlikely) as they potentially stand to benefit, but they would still need to convince all the other regular non-miner users who would be hurt by the change. Seems pretty unlikely, unless there's mass centralisation of the system (ie. noone running full nodes, everyone using 3rd party wallet services, who could collude to make it happen).
Re: Bitcois stolen from encrypted wallet? Or lost due to crash?
sounds bad.
Go to blockchain.info and search for your mtgox transaction via either one of the addresses, or the transaction id, which you should be able to get from your client.
If the other amount to the weird address is part of that same transaction, then it was probably 'change' from the transaction coming back to a new address that was in your wallet.
If that's the case, you may have lost the key for that address when the wallet got corrupted in the crash, and so now the client can't see those coins as belonging to you. You may still be able to recover it from the corrupt wallet file though. Search around on here, there's info about how to do it. There's some tool you can download.
If it's a different transaction, then my guess is that your windows machine was compromised, and someone got your wallet passcode when you typed it in to do the gox transaction. They then straight away used it to get your coins. Is everything gone, or is it some weird amount? If there's anything left, I would guess that's not what happened. An attacker would take the lot.
I would never run a bitcoin client on a windows machine that is connected to the network and in active use. It's just too risky.
Hope you get your coins back.
Go to blockchain.info and search for your mtgox transaction via either one of the addresses, or the transaction id, which you should be able to get from your client.
If the other amount to the weird address is part of that same transaction, then it was probably 'change' from the transaction coming back to a new address that was in your wallet.
If that's the case, you may have lost the key for that address when the wallet got corrupted in the crash, and so now the client can't see those coins as belonging to you. You may still be able to recover it from the corrupt wallet file though. Search around on here, there's info about how to do it. There's some tool you can download.
If it's a different transaction, then my guess is that your windows machine was compromised, and someone got your wallet passcode when you typed it in to do the gox transaction. They then straight away used it to get your coins. Is everything gone, or is it some weird amount? If there's anything left, I would guess that's not what happened. An attacker would take the lot.
I would never run a bitcoin client on a windows machine that is connected to the network and in active use. It's just too risky.
Hope you get your coins back.