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Showing 20 of 284 results by thaaanos
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Board Economics
Re: Bitcoin price is higher than 1 oz of Gold. But,
by
thaaanos
on 06/03/2017, 20:25:02 UTC
I think the pattern is easily noted.

It is a security contest with a progressive jackpot.
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Topic
Board Service Discussion
Re: BullShit Trust. It is the beginning of the end.
by
thaaanos
on 07/08/2016, 15:33:39 UTC
This will end with pirate closing his operations, everyone getting his coins back, and everyone feeling sorry for the lost opportunity.

Great, thanks everyone.

What a fucking joke.

Fuck everyone that spreads FUD. You could have made great profits while helping stabilising bitcoin price. Now back to scammers at 2% a week and great volatility that make bitcoin look like a laughing stocks.

Fuck you. At least now you'll look ridiculous, that's my only pleasure.

Timetravel
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Learning from Imperial Rome
by
thaaanos
on 26/06/2016, 19:33:35 UTC
Seems Rome was in a situation like UK right now,
A services sector thriving in Rome, while Industry (Farms) in Italy was taking a hit, as Empire expanded and acquired cheaper resources elsewhere. Debt mounted, Real estate crashed for the plebs and the situation reached a critical point. Early warning of that situation could be the Spartacus rebellion, (the weakest chain to feel the economic crisis first). No fiat at the time to easily expand the money supply and resolve liquidity crisis, any attempt to reduce the coin weight results to more hoarding and less liquidity, as vicious circle.  So bankers were taking the economy hostage "enslaving" Free romans.
I think julius eventually resolved the crisis by expansion of the army (employment of plebs) and money supply (Gaul & Germany gold?)
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Board Economics
Re: Learning from Imperial Rome
by
thaaanos
on 22/06/2016, 09:51:10 UTC
Now you have me thinking more about the Catiline fiasco. Cicero has been my favorite politician of the ancient world. But I think he mishandled the Catiline conspiracy. After the conspirators were arrested, he had them executed without trials. That caused a huge controversy and the debate continued for decades.

Cicero was a lawyer and he made a fancy legal argument that, as consul, he had authority to execute without trials during an emergency. When the conspirators were arrested, people were afraid that there could be more conspirators, or that the arrested conspirators would be rescued by a mob that would succeed with the coup. But Romans regarded each citizen's right to a trial as fundamental, and the executions caused a lot of blowback.

I think Cicero weakened the Roman constitution with those executions. That added to the slippery slope of the Roman republic.

If we think about it, suspending a constitutional right during an emergency set a dangerous precedent. Now we have prisoners in Guantanamo held indefinitely without trial. Now the US government executes its citizens without trial by blowing them up with drones. Do you see what Cicero started?

Cicero really screwed up another situation years later. Caesar and Pompey invited him to join them in a triumvirate to govern Rome. Cicero declined. If he had accepted, he was the perfect guy to mediate the conflicts between Caesar and Pompey. That's why they wanted him. If he had joined the triumvirate, Cicero could have prevented the civil war, and maybe helped to reform the republic, at least for another while.

So I'm mad at Cicero. But he spent his life trying to preserve the republic.

Cicero was a Sith lord
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Topic
Board Altcoin Discussion
Re: Valid uses cases for Smart Contracts, Dapps, and DAOs?
by
thaaanos
on 21/06/2016, 17:44:35 UTC
One use case I expect to become a reality is the following:
As we see our economies drift into deflation more and more products will be produced on demand to minimize inventory.
So customers will be required to pre-order stuff instead of taking stuff of the shelf.

Now producer in order to minimize supply risk can pre-arrange a smart-contract that will split funds from his input directly  to the supplier at a determined price. Likewise the supplier has contracts with his suppliers etc.
So the moment a customer pays up a contract funds flow across this network of suppliers and production is triggered with minimum overhead. A contract may also choose from various suppliers based on price, production time, location etc so as to minimize price or delivery time based on end-user preference.
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Learning from Imperial Rome
by
thaaanos
on 20/06/2016, 20:26:11 UTC
There is a topic related to Imperial Rome that I still puzzle
over. Now, within the US Presidential campaigns, I may have found
a new perspective on the outcomes. The two quotes below are
enlightening:

Short on policy, long on Entertainment. Imperial Rome was famous
for its "Bread and Circuses" - just the sort of nebulous concept
that defies the ability to attach numbers. This made the true
importance and impact of this policy difficult to grasp, and
allowed it to escape its proper inspection.


"Boredom"
Humans need to keep on moving, if they can't move ahead they will move backwards, they can't stand still.
Romans needed a breakthrough, which never came. Remember they used to say that they discovered anything that was to discover. Couple that with the fact that they conquered what was to be conquer, they pretty much reached a plateu in science/wealth/arts which no peak on the horizon. It was then that they turned to the mystical/unseen and started to introduce foreign religions and ideas (Caligula god-king), the breakthrough eventually came in the form of Christianity.

The cycle between science and mystical.
Jung would refer to it as the spirits of the times and depths, so its a deeply rooted personal conflict that manifests into larger scale, ie Helinistic/Roman -> Christianity -> Enlightment -> Internet Smiley
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Learning from Imperial Rome
by
thaaanos
on 20/06/2016, 20:01:52 UTC
I would say that a cryptocurrency that resets itself is probably rather counter-productive, and in my opinion a terrible idea if you want it to go on for more than a generation. The crypto could never have any considerable value because it would all get wiped in the future, and thus investing large amounts or placing the value at greater than $1/coin would be completely useless and just be looking for a lot of lost wealth.

It is a good concept for an authoritarian government that should never expect for their currency to have any value in the international stage, but it sucks as a free market idea.

Money should erode imho as everything in nature and most importantly "trust". So a reset mechanism in a crypto to simulate inflation is consistent with reality. The only things that always gain momentum, end up in a bang.
People always confuse money with assets see (red above) money is asset, asset is not money.

How is it anything that diverges from bitcoin perspective is auto-tagged authoritarian, never-mind don't answer.
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Topic
Board Altcoin Discussion
Re: Layman's Journey to Understanding Zerocash
by
thaaanos
on 18/12/2015, 00:40:27 UTC
Hello glad to see your ideas get some flesh.
I will look deeper but a few thoughts on your firsts post, I will return with more
 
I too am not very happy with your approach on determinism , I think you need to look into Denotational semantics to streamline your thoughts on that matter.
As for the layman's journey I think the approach on Complexity of Gregory Chaitin in "Meta Math!: The Quest for Omega" may give you some ideas. Interesting read by an interesting person btw.
Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Satoshi is back ?
by
thaaanos
on 11/12/2015, 15:16:57 UTC
Satoshi's miner probably used random outputs, the early bitcoins he mined are lost forever, he even hinted at it that only 20 mils will be available
Could you please quote where did he say this ?

Yes I would like to see the proofs of these statements.

Also, when you really think off it, this wouldn't be so surprising to do. I mean he didn't have any other way of doing the distribution when he was pretty much mining all by himself in the beginning. Him and maybe 1 or 2 more people.
Satoshi's miner probably used random outputs, the early bitcoins he mined are lost forever, he even hinted at it that only 20 mils will be available

Do you have any proof that Satoshi said this? There are a lot of people that pretend to be Satoshi you know. I am pretty sure that there is a max of 21 mil, not 20 mil, Bitcoin to be mined.

Ok guys this is my interpretation of the events hence the word "probably".
Satoshi used a non-client miner originally to maintain the network at the early stages to provide infrastructure (thats from a research of one forum member).
Satoshi only moved coins from his client miner. I dimly remember he said (or someone else conveyed) that some coins will get lost and eventually only 20 mils will be available, my guess is he had in mind his miner.
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Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Satoshi is back ?
by
thaaanos
on 10/12/2015, 20:33:05 UTC
Satoshi's miner probably used random outputs, the early bitcoins he mined are lost forever, he even hinted at it that only 20 mils will be available
Could you please quote where did he say this ?
Sorry I only remember my outputs not the inputs Smiley forgive me
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Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Satoshi is back ?
by
thaaanos
on 10/12/2015, 18:51:47 UTC
Satoshi's miner probably used random outputs, the early bitcoins he mined are lost forever, he even hinted at it that only 20 mils will be available
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: How To Create Price Stability
by
thaaanos
on 21/11/2015, 15:02:49 UTC
It is far easier to stabilize price in a crypto as you can access all transactions
Also no need to centralize to stabilize. There are stable structures that occur in a decentralized way
But it will need a change in the algo. People are reluctant on that part.
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: How To Create Price Stability
by
thaaanos
on 19/11/2015, 21:27:31 UTC
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Greek referendum
by
thaaanos
on 29/06/2015, 00:29:05 UTC
The referendum was needed imho to end the neverending draging of he negotiations while situation in greece deteriorates. It will also force troika and greek gov to find common ground in a time bounded process. Both parties are (in reality) interested in campaining for a Yes (provided an updated deal). However a No will mark the point of no retreat for *any* Greek Gov, then it will be up to Troika to either cave in or expel Greece from EZ.
Troikas response was breaking greak banks.

In any way the moment Troika scare itself at the lenght they will go to enforce their terms, they are done
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: let's develop cryptocurrency economic theory
by
thaaanos
on 04/06/2015, 20:13:04 UTC
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.gr/
enjoy

Not long ago I had described a coin that rusts, ie it expires.
Creating not a trimetalic but multimetalic system
This essentaily I think that can capture the growth or shrink of market activity, within the effective money supply used.
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Is deflation truly that bad for an economy?
by
thaaanos
on 21/04/2015, 17:21:40 UTC

Imagine what happens if Greece defaults on government bonds. What will people around the world think of government bonds in general, when they understand that their pensions are basically government bonds? There could be a violent contraction of credit, thus general price deflation. On the other hand, they could just blame it on one bad government, their own might be okay. Impossible to know.


Given the financial state of Greece, I'd assume that the bond yields would have somewhat adjusted (increased) given the higher level of risk?
I haven't been keeping a very close eye on Greece's situation lately.  Since they don't have their own monetary policy, who is the main lender? ECB?

The increase has been more than a slight adjustment. Greek bond yields have continuously increased since Sep-2014. I wonder how much higher they can go.

Sep-14 : 5.9%
Oct-14: 7.3%
Nov-14: 8.1%
Dec-14: 8.4%
Jan-15: 9.5%
Feb-15: 9.7%
Mar-15: 10.5%


http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/money/long/html/index.en.html

Thanks for the info.  That's pretty crazy for government bonds lol.  So for people already holding bonds, with that type of increase to yields, the price would have already dropped significantly.  New bondholders should understand the risk and be compensated with a higher yield.

Any insight into who the main bondholders are that would suffer from a default?  Greek citizens or foreign investment?
Private investors are no more since PSI, the bonds they hold are swaped by ecb guaranteed bonds (i think). The current debt is held by imf and other europe govs
Market access is barred some years now, so yields are decorative
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Is deflation truly that bad for an economy?
by
thaaanos
on 19/04/2015, 13:45:46 UTC
Not all things follow a linear path, you argue that deflation is a simple transition from inflation while we argue that there is a phase change involved. I think that your argument of linear transition doesn hold, as agents in a deflationary environment alter their behaviour substantiantly. That is you cannot draw analogies between inflationary equilibriuoms and deflationary. Phase change is never symmetrical
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Is deflation truly that bad for an economy?
by
thaaanos
on 13/04/2015, 22:10:20 UTC
the benefit is that you have increased output.

I can now use the same strategy towards a worker.  I can say that in order for my products to become cheaper so that he can buy more of them, I propose that he works 20% more time for a slightly lower wage.  The logic is the same.  If the guy tells me: "hey, you propose me to work more and earn less ?" I will answer him: "but my dear, your benefit is that you have increased your output" Smiley


Its a macro concept not micro
As long as output scales with extra work time you are correct, but generally workers operate at top capacity, and lack the ability to grow to meet higher demands.
Companies on the other can scale better, and with growth, comes efficiency, this is why output matters.
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Is deflation truly that bad for an economy?
by
thaaanos
on 13/04/2015, 15:46:45 UTC
If you want break it down to economics.  If you exploit labor like this where will you get consumers?  When people have decent wages they can become consumers so in the long run the producers will enjoy more wealth.  

This is also such a crazy statement that comes back very often: one should pay its employees a lot of money, so that they can pay a lot of money for your products Smiley

The secret is that you don't want MONEY from your consumers, you want to get *goods and services* from others.  Money is just an intermediate thing.  You produce, because you want to get production from others, not money.  If you can get the production from your labourers for less, then by all means, that's what you should do.  

Imagine: I have material costs of 100.-, I pay 100.- wages, and I have then produced 100 products which I sell for 3.- each, so I make 100.- benefit.

What advantage would I have, by paying 160.- wages, and sell now 20 products more (namely, the 20 products that my employees can buy with their extra salary) ?  Because now, in fact, I have a cost also of 120.

In the end, I will now sell 120 products at 3 each, have a material cost of 120, and pay 160 wages.  My benefit is now 360 - 160 - 120 = 80.

I LOWERED my profit from 100 earlier on to only 80, by paying my workers more so that they come and consume my products and by selling more.

There is nothing to be won by increasing wages for people to consume more.  Because you have to pay the other production factors too (in our case, the "material costs")

the benefit is that you have increased output.
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Is deflation truly that bad for an economy?
by
thaaanos
on 13/04/2015, 11:06:31 UTC
It means the ownership is socialized (owned by the workers) as opposed to owned by capital (owners).  If applied to macro like the Communist experiments of the 20th Cent., then clearly they all failed (with the exception of China)

China got where it got today after they essentially allowed private capital ownership in the late '70s when Deng Xiaoping took power and began carrying out significant economic reforms. They switched from a planned economy to a mixed economy with an open market. In short, "Communist" China is as Communist as any other Capitalist country out there...

Ask yourself, would you rather China had not turn "communist"? could the world handle 2 billion Americans more?