again with the creation cost! when will you start seeing that cost of mining changes with the price not the other way around.
price goes up > mining becomes more profitable > more miners join > hashrate rises > difficulty rises > cost of mining increases
price drops > mining becomes less profitable > some miners leave > hashrate drops > difficulty readjusts (decreases) > cost of mining decreases
additionally you are not talking about "investing" you are talking about day trading here. an investor shouldn't care about these short term fluctuations. you invest long term and timing in that case is not as important specially since "investors" invest their idle money that is not in anything.
It is truth, it's pretty interesting that investing is normally seen as both when in reality it isn't because being a trader and an investor is not the same thing at all.
As the hashing rate adjusts then it will be really easy to predict the outcome of Bitcoin in the future in any given time, then you can take accurate decisions based on it, especially when we hit the cap. Right now, it isn't relevant at all.
With trading of course, there's always a luck factor involved, that factor decides the outcome of any money input you put in, it then will decide if you ultimately get profit or not, it is definitely not set in stone, that's why i don't like it. No matter how good you get it, there will be always some luck factor involved.
Life is easier, people just makes it complicated.