My first steps in margin trading and this is my experience so far :

1. I bought a short position. The lending is automatic, meaning I (presumably) got the cheapest rate and the rate varies automatically when cheaper (lower rate) loans are offered e.g. initial BTC XMR lending at 0.0374% and during my position it went automatically down to 0.0365%

2. I offered a BTC loan at 0.045% for 2 days. The fees are accumulating as long as the lender doesn't close his position. 0.045%/day  = ~17% annualized, which isn't bad I think.

What I don't understand is my loan is still active at 0.045% while there are cheaper loans right now ? I'd guess the lender would get those cheaper loans automatically like I  did ?

Well, actually I don't know, but it would make a lot of sense. I wonder if there is one equation that fits ? How would you take into account economic reality is distorted and manipulated by "the vile maxim of the masters of mankind" ?   

Why is this simplistic economic equation MV=PQ so popular, even among many bitcoiners ? It's pseudo science in my opinion.     

I made a new graph with tail emission :

www.googledrive.com/host/0B8ddMzM9RWuROEVrbnE0U1RXaTQ

The model makes following assumptions :
* genesis block @ april 18 2014 00:00:00 (according to Moneroblocks.eu the first block was mined @ 2014-04-18 10:49:53 UTC, but something isn't working properly in my javascript code)
* every block gets mined exactly every 60sec
* it doesn't take penalties into account
* every block reward gets calculated according to the formula : (M - A) * 2^-20 * 10^-12 with A the current supply and M = Atomic Units = 2⁶⁴-1 and the calculated block reward is added to the current supply UNTIL the calculated block reward <=0.3 XMR
* Whenever the calculated block reward for block x <=0.3XMR the actual block reward for block x to block x+infinity becomes exactly 0.3XMR

Some calculations I made with this model (it calculates 26280000 blocks ~ 50 years) :
* first block with a calculated block reward < 0.3XMR is block 4269201 ~ 2022-4-30 (year 9) with a current supply = 98.29469862785216% of M
* block 5317920 ~ 2024-4-27 (year 11) is the first block for which the current supply >= 100% of M (from now on current supply grows greater than M ?)
* year over year inflation at the end of year 9 = 0.874171704788429%. (Indeed ~0.9% see Smooth's reply)
* year over year inflation is calculated every year. You can look at them by pressing F12 in your browser.

Javascript code is very messy, so I could have made a mistake. If something is wrong with my reasoning and assumptions for this model, or any suggestions to fine-tune the model, please tell me.

EDIT : definitions of A and M

Does this mean a constant block reward = 0.3XMR ?

It's simple javascript calculating the supply every minute according to :

* Actual number of atomic units is M = 264 - 1. A minimum subsidy may be implemented in the future with <1% annual inflation to preserve mining incentives.
* Uses a recurrence relation. Block reward = (M - A) * 2-20 * 10-12, where A = current circulation. Roughly 86% mined in 4 years (see graph)

You can copy paste the code and run it locally in your browser. The example calculates 525600*26 blocks (see javascript code) ... you can change that to any number you want.

When - what date or what blockheight - would the tail emission kick in ?  

EDIT : 525600*26 = 26 years each year 525600 blocks one block every min.

Oooh, interesting, thx.

Hello ArticMine,

How do you view Poloniex BTC/XMR in tradingview ?

^^^Made this

www.googledrive.com/host/0B8ddMzM9RWuRZUFmMDVZMlB2Q2s

Some experiments with D3.js ... it's a zoomable graph of XMR emission. Maybe someone can use it.

EDIT : Y-axis are percentages of total supply according to the emission formula

Thx for the info.

I have an 0.8.8.3 wallet (3 files : xxx.bin, xxx.bin.keys and xxx.bin.address.txt) and opened it in 0.8.8.6. I got following message "You had been using a deprecated version of the wallet. Your wallet file format is being upgraded now" and everything looks fine.

Can I upgrade this wallet to a deterministic wallet with seed or do I have to create a new wallet with seed and transfer the coins ? I think I remember reading somewhere you could upgrade an old wallet without seed to a wallet with seed, but I'm not sure. 

Hey, thanks for sharing your work.


I'm not sure the linear price axis graph should look like an S curve. I believe this could be true for adoption or #users, network hashing power + others, their growth is bound by max resources, Bitcoin price however isn't bound by any resources in my opinion. That's why I prefer your model to Stephen Reed's logistic model, you don't have an arbitrarily $1000000 price limit.

EDIT : even #users isn't bound to max resources if you count bots, agents, DACs, machines, ... in the future.

Small question : how do you calculate the 'network hash rate' ?
I thought it was 'Diff/60', but that's not what I see on the pool's mainpage (neither on other pools' mainpage) What formula are you using ?
Thx. 
 

Taking the history of human kind into consideration , lets say 100.000 years, reason is (maybe arguably) the winning meme (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meme) and once it reaches a certain point, there's accelerated or exponential growth in adoption. Quite a while is a relative notion.

Heck, everything will become decentralized, even nation states will become obsolete ... it's called P2P with its globally scaled small group dynamics.

Hey dnaleor,

Bedankt voor de monero tip. Dankzij monero ben ik mij beginnen verdiepen in altcoins ... ik volgde reeds ethereum en maidsafe, maar verder had ik de indruk dat altcoins goedkope afkooksels waren van Bitcoin. Nu niet meer, altcoins als monero (of meer bepaald cryptonote/cryptonight) bieden effectief een meerwaarde...in dit geval anonimiteit (wat niet voor iedereen positief onthaald wordt), maar oook 'fungibility' (= vervangbaar), wat mij toch een belangrijke tekortkoming lijkt van Bitcoin.

thx

   

OK, i got it ... thx voor de replies. Toch nog een vraagje : op welke exchanges kan je kopen. Ik ga er vanuit dat ook hier de machine te programmeren is voor verschillende exchanges ?

xa4

hehe,

Heb mij verkeerd uitgedrukt denk ik. Stel dat je online (mobiele) wallet leeg is, dan zou je bijvoorbeeld via de machine uw eigen bitcoins vanop een "bitcoinbankrekening" kunnen oververschrijven ....

Wat talent betreft, complexe regelgeving/wetgeving doorgronden is ook een talent ;-)
Maar ik denk dat er in België momenteel geen regelgeving is, dus niet veel te doorgronden is ... maar dat zal wat te simpel zijn. KYC/AML normen zijn volgens mij normen en dus geen wetgeving/regelgeving en eventueel zijn die normen niet van toepassing indien je in persoonlijke naam handelt (cfr. de geruchten dat Huobi CEO zijn persoonlijke bankrekening gebruikt) Maar ik weet er eigenlijk niets van en ben eigenlijk aan 't gissen. Weet jij welke problemen/opstakels er zijn in België mbt regelgeving/wetgeving rond Bitcoin ? 

xa4

Hey,
 
Kun je wat meer (technische) info geven over de machine. Ik begrijp dat je via de machine bitcoins kunt kopen; zou het bijvoorbeeld mogelijk zijn om deze machine te koppelen aan een 'trusted party', een soort bitcoinbank bijvoorbeeld, waar je een bitcoinrekening hebt en bitcoins afhaalt zoals je euros afhaalt aan een reguliere bancontact ?

Volgende meeting kom ik af (was er op de eerste meeting in november, maar laatste 2 gemist). Benieuwd naar de machine en vroeg me ook af of niemand er al aan gedacht heeft om een Belgische Exchange op poten te zetten ....cfr. bitplaats.be (onlangs in 't nieuws op coindesk). Zij hebben een spread van meer dan 10% op koop- en verkoopprijs + ze zijn duur .... dit moet met het Gentse/Belgische talent toch beter kunnen.

Cu all

xa4