Quote from: Rampion on September 24, 2013, 10:50:12 PM

Quote from: spartanmorning on September 24, 2013, 10:29:21 PM

Quote from: nicolaennio on September 24, 2013, 09:36:18 PM

Quote from: dooglus on September 24, 2013, 12:19:47 AM

As for the calls to "change something", if he's cheating then limiting the maximum bet won't stop him winning, and if he isn't cheating and is just lucky then limiting the maximum bet will only slow his inevitable losses. I don't see how it helps in either case.

I disagree with dooglus on this point. Now the investors are in the situation they cannot understand if nakowa is cheating or not, because with large bets what happened in these days is still somehow plausible. Indeed, if you run some simulations as elm did 242962.msg3222672#msg3222672date=1379981987 you can see that few times nakowa is winning. However if you run the same simulations with a much smaller max bet, like 0.01% or so, but the same amount of wagered money, you may check that the same behavior is ridiculously improbable. If he is cheating he would surely reveal the cheat on a lower max bet (less than 1 euro) and the website must surely be stopped.

Note that even if he is not cheating (which is what I think) the kelly criterion is known to be quite aggressive (in the world of poker online for example), and again if you run some max betting simulations you may see that some of them are quite scary from the point of view of an investor.

Of course I cannot make other important considerations on lowering the max bet, maybe we are to the point that investors could vote for it, for example.

And yet the simplest explanation for this is that he knows how/what nakowa is doing and why...again, just sayin' here...why is it so hard to be somewhat conservative and pull your money from the site? Why are people so driven to ignore red flags? yes, it could be legit, or a shadow business operating with a giant conflict of interest and security hole, is indeed untrustworthy. Why risk it? for what gains?

GREED!

Jeez. It's just variance, nakowas bankroll is orders of magnitude bigger than the average player's, the max bet is high and the house edge very low.

Plus, if you'd taken the time to read the many contributions of dooglus to this forum and to study his project JD you would realize there is no "shadow business" here.

He seems very articulate, smart, and reasonable, yes. And again, I am not outright accusing him or them of anything, but those are all perceptions, and reality (the facts) is telling us there's something wrong here. Not even the PnL of this 'whale' but the fact that there's this gaping security hole/conflict of interest. A good con(fidence) man gains your (take a guess) CONFIDENCE!

W/E though, do what you will, tis your money.

PS Have I mentioned, I really, really like the site (seriously, except for that pesky problem mentioned above)

spartanmorning

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