Quote from: thecodebear on December 04, 2017, 06:48:36 PM

Quote from: neurotypical on December 04, 2017, 05:22:54 PM

Quote from: thecodebear on December 04, 2017, 05:10:58 PM

Wondering what you all think will be the effect of the futures market on the adoption of Bitcoin in Wall St, including the time scale.

Two of the planned three Bitcoin Futures markets are starting in the next two weeks. One $100 billion hedge fund in I believe the UK has already said they will start offering direct exposure to Bitcoin once futures go online. Many financial experts expect that futures will lead to the SEC accepting Bitcoin ETFs.

Futures are a sideshow that won't affect the market. The real thing we want is direct exposure through ETFs and hedge funds. Do you think futures will lead to this and how long will it take until we have a bunch of hedge funds and approved ETFs operating in Bitcoin?

Im not sure if we want ETFs just yet... it's too early. Also there's no way an ETF is going to get approved anytime soon, every time someone has tried, they have failed. Notice that the SEC said that since Bitcoin cannot be regulated, an ETF for Bitcoin cannot pass. I don't see how Bitcoin can ever be regulated, since if it's regulated it's dead, so I don't see how we can ever have an ETF for Bitcoin.

But that's irrelevant, we don't really need an ETF to go to the moon. CME and Nasdaq futures are enough for anyone with money to get in and drive the price to the next level. Some futures don't even allow shorting, but I think CME does, so that's a risk that they may try to short. Let's see how it goes for them, I think a lot of idiots are trying to short Bitcoin and they are going to lose their money when it pumps back quickly.

But the thing about the futures is that they are cash settled, so shorting or going long in the futures doesn't matter, they're not actually buying or selling bitcoin, just betting on the price. They're not investing they're just gambling. So the futures aren't the thing we're looking for, thats just the catalyst to get Wall St interested in getting into Bitcoin.

And yeah while SEC did reject ETFs due to lack or regulation, everything I read from financial people is that a regulated futures market will advance the case of ETFs even though the futures market is entirely separate from the bitcoin market, which doesn't really make sense but hey if it makes them approve ETF I'm all for that. And I mean I don't think ETFs will be approved in the next few months, but maybe starting in the summer I could see it happen, Bitcoin marketcap might be over half a trillion by then which should be big enough for ETFs to jump in. But yeah it all comes down to if the SEC will approve them.

A futures market will accelerate the creation of an ETF because the ETF will be able to hold futures instead of having to deal with the logistical challenges of safely holding bitcoin itself.

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