Quote from: riiiiising on January 06, 2015, 07:29:38 PM

Quote from: sgbett on January 06, 2015, 07:17:27 PM

Quote from: riiiiising on January 06, 2015, 07:02:26 PM

Quote from: sgbett on January 06, 2015, 06:47:36 PM

blah

So let me get this straight. You projected a guess for a low of $200 (though you expected it to happen last spring) and you also predicted that we'd be at $560,000 by later this year? Did you honestly think that both could come true? Or just covering your bases for either outcome, so you could at least come back to this forum and try to save some face?

Instead of trying to descredit me why don't you reveal your genius for all to see?

Here's a "predict the price at christmas" thread from back in november when the price was around $900 and riiiiising...

Quote from: sgbett on November 27, 2013, 11:12:27 PM

$720

The average guess was over $2k, the actual price on 25th $660... on boxing day it traded at $720. OMG another terrible call! Probably invalidated for being a day out

You keep saying I'm an idiot and haven't called anything right, and the only thing you can point to is something that hasn't happened yet? Something that isn't even a prediction of specific price but a general theory on how price will behave if we get mass adoption (still not read the first post huh?)

I'm still waiting for you to admit who you are so that we can all see from your post history how early and accurately *you* called this bear market...

You must be crazy. I'm not going to reveal my true identity, because I'll probably just be banned again. There are still many people on this forum who are butt hurt that all my so called saber rattling turned out to be spot on analysis. I don't care how many people drew lines on graphs to present their ideas of support and trend lines... it all turned out to be bullshit. You need to read between the lines to figure out where this market is going, and that's something that you still need to learn for yourself. I'm real impressed that you made one correct guess back in 2013, but that was a long time ago.

You've gotta accept that if you create a new thread with a prediction of $560,000 by end of 2015, somebody is going to call you out on it.

You can't figure out where the market is going. I can't. That's something *you* still need to learn.

I see you still haven't read the first post so I'll quote the relevant parts:

Quote from: sgbett on September 27, 2014, 09:14:09 PM

So the number I have picked is probably not that accurate. The magnitude, and the colossal unbeleivableness of it, is what is important. That's the black swan that nobody sees coming. That 90% of the people in the world will miss 90% of the bitcoin.

Quote from: sgbett on September 27, 2014, 09:14:09 PM

Once again the figures aren't right, its the magnitude of the moves you might have to go through that is the message.

and as the thread develops just to make sure people understand:

Quote from: sgbett on September 28, 2014, 05:02:10 PM

The values aren't really supposed to be accurate, both time and price axis are kind of arbitrary (as per assumptions in the first post of 10years and 300k) it's more about the scale of movement that has to happen to reach an arbitrary end price based on this kind of model. In the chart I posted as an example though the x axis is days. So ther is about 3650 in 10 years give or take

The actual outcomes could be very different depending on whether a cycle lines up with the max rate of adoption in the s-curve. What I posted was just a shot in the dark based on one set of inputs. A surprising one admittedly but it shows the kind of crazy range of possibilities.

None of this means I don't still think it *could* go to zero(ish) because if you stop forgetting that then you start behaving irrationally. It just means that I hadn't considered all the possibilities. That I ahd kind of dismissed the crazy talk of btc at 1million dollars, as being a bit loony. I think I was mistaken to close off my mind to that possibility, because if it were to ever happen I would be unprepared.

I had a look on log scale it's a bit jiggly, but I'll post it up in a bit

and just in case you are still in doubt...

Quote from: sgbett on October 04, 2014, 04:36:16 PM

Quote from: An amorous cow-herder on October 04, 2014, 02:36:34 PM

Quote from: sgbett on October 04, 2014, 02:02:21 PM

Also continuing to mischarecterise my posts as advice to buy, reveals the shallowness of your thiught process.

Well, i would guess there are only so many interpretations for a topic called "[prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 months from now".
I mean, what is the topic supposed to imply?

Why goat my dear fellow, it's wild speculation, implication is in the eye of the beholder. (Not to mention its just the click bait to get people to read the post! You know how it works)

It does represent my belief, that buying and or holding is a good plan (it's what I'm actually doing) but as to whether that is appropriate that's up to the individual reading it.

Now if someone's goal is to make short term profit then this is not the post for them. That's not my goal and I do consistently reiterate that. My goal is to invest a reasonable amount of cash (that I can well afford to lose) in a risky asset class that I happen to think is a game changer. When it looks "cheap" to me I pick up a bit more.

Now, that's a totally digferent agenda to that the chorus of sellers is pushing, but I think it's agood agenda. It's also transparent and honest. I will weather the diatribe all the way to $30 if I have to.