Quote from: TheJuice on January 17, 2015, 11:59:59 PM

My hope is to revisit this topic at the end of 2015 and see how many of my predictions came true.

Today, 1/17, we saw bitcoin sway around the $200 mark; in response difficulty is dropping. All miners at the 1W per Ghash level or worse have been squeezed out. The newest, best miners are barely profitable. WHat does this mean for the price of bitcoin?

1) Difficulty, and hence new machinery will stop being produced in 2015 unlike 2014. What happens when there is a decrease in miner hardware? To produce hardware these companies are taking orders in BTC and converting into fiat to pay employees, vendors, producers, etc. Think of all the SELLING pressure that produced in 2014. This selling pressure will stop - but could continue if the price rises. Overall this will have a POSITIVE effect on price.

2) Continued end-user growth through mainstream applications. The user base, your average Jo will be able to use bitcoin, but most likely the stores accepting bitcoin will convert bitcoins back to FIAT. This will have a NEUTRAL effect. In 2014, it was great that many mainstream stores accepted bitcoin - except every purchase put selling pressure on the market. 2015 will not be the year where stores hold on to btc instead of immediately converting to fiat. I hope this will happen in 2016 or 17. Await my Jan 2016 predictions.

3) New investment vehicle for the average user through finally an ETF. This will stabilize the price and result in a net inflow of fiat. This will be POSITIVE.

4) Governments across the world will recognize bitcoin as a currency. This will have widespread tax implications. Furthermore, it will allow for in 2017 the first large bank to exchange fiat for btc at local branches.

5) Thus, due to those influence I expect a strong positive trend this year - probably a small bubble or two. Expected price range at the end of the year to be ~$800 USD (would not be surprised if in the 1000 range given #1 above).

Godspeed. I'll bring this post back in 2016.

TJ

My prediction is that pretty much everything you said above is wrong.