Quote from: wbrant on February 23, 2015, 06:45:19 AM

Just under 100 blocks to go before difficulty change.

is there a way to calculate (or even estimate) what it will
change to?

yes..
you look for block height h.. now we find h = 44270
you take the time difference d = blocktime( h ) - blocktime ( h - 2016 )

Quote

getblockhash 44270
0000000000000003a445aeeaae096b2139cd113a5f7cf5b514108222506bd520

Quote

getblock 0000000000000003a445aeeaae096b2139cd113a5f7cf5b514108222506bd520
{
   "hash" : "0000000000000003a445aeeaae096b2139cd113a5f7cf5b514108222506bd520",
   "confirmations" : 1,
   "size" : 509,
   "height" : 44270,
   "version" : 2,
   "merkleroot" : "ba972b1df85bdddc912e0dc7de48834bd233bf5227eed90e22efa90e220d7330",
   "tx" : [
   "4bbc5ca6373a8273393d36290d0e0b0f9539ab2405d3f22b262cf0dd62e64d13",
   "50c66e42d38bacb9bb3a2b7873562d0b4bfa71d233236ebe14e7dcd01ed450bc"
   ],
   "time" : 1424720066,
   "nonce" : 259376290,
   "bits" : "195040c0",
   "difficulty" : 53517071.29850692,
   "previousblockhash" : "000000000000003548d57d3514b94ad25c70a1c1181052473bfee1f14cdfef21"
}

Quote

getblockhash 42254
0000000000000118e448a3275476be15441730feeffbfd3df2df535634995ad8

Quote

getblock 0000000000000118e448a3275476be15441730feeffbfd3df2df535634995ad8
{
   "hash" : "0000000000000118e448a3275476be15441730feeffbfd3df2df535634995ad8",
   "confirmations" : 2017,
   "size" : 239,
   "height" : 42254,
   "version" : 2,
   "merkleroot" : "471dab79d03a223d0e3a43e8149ae1345cf1cc9623d8970b3e1823ec3a9886de",
   "tx" : [
   "471dab79d03a223d0e3a43e8149ae1345cf1cc9623d8970b3e1823ec3a9886de"
   ],
   "time" : 1422656405,
   "nonce" : 2158012256,
   "bits" : "1a014103",
   "difficulty" : 13379267.82462673,
   "previousblockhash" : "000000000000008ece91a484f2b689cf8e314c97b136e70b95e3856c91c04d58",
   "nextblockhash" : "0000000000000124efe7bf1f2103d02a75035e7d56d9d2dfa7d64cf81eb1353b"
}

so d = 1424720066 - 1422656405 = 2063661 seconds
d = real time for 2016 blocks
expected time e = 2016 * 300 seconds = 604800

d /e = 3.41
we took longer than planed, difficulty will now go down

so if i did everything correctly, difficulty will drop by factor 3.41 !

d = 53517071 / 3.41 = 15694155

( if adjustment was now.. will change in next 100 blocks )