Quote from: HalFinneysBrain on March 11, 2015, 09:27:29 PM

Some thoughts:

Several months ago Ryan and Chessnut posted EWave charts showing a final wave V decline below the 275 October low, to , followed by the birth of the new bull market / next leg up.

They were correct in their counts, and the wave 5 plunge took us from the November high all the way down to the 150-160 range depending on which exchange you look at, on Jan 13.

But for some reason, they aren't bullish now, and instead looking for wave V again? This makes no sense to me.

The positive divergences in MACD that Ryan predicted have occurred. MACD is on buy signals now. The 1D MACD gave a buy signal, then the 3D MACD gave a buy signal, then the 1W MACD gave a buy signal. 3 day moving averages just crossed over into buy territory.

The wave structure of this bear market looks complete to me. It looks EXACTLY like Ryan was predicting all along (really great job on that prediction, seriously!)

So why now look for another decline back to the lows? I can understand looking for a moderate pullback here to maybe 270, tha's perfectly reasonable (but not guaranteed), but why expect low 200s again, or even lower than that? This seems absurd to me, and contrary to both the charts and the Bbitcoin fundamentals and recent VC funding, which look stronger than ever now.

The January bottom was a much stronger bottom than the previous ones. The massive volume we saw at the low, the crash of over 25% within hours, it was intense, and we already retested the low 200 levels in February, and have now had a rally which has lasted MUCH longer than the failed November rally. Why remain bearish?

Is there something about Elliotwavers that makes them so bearish all the time? I remember looking at Robert Prechter's counts of Gold in the early to mid 200s, when he just stubbornly kept looking for a wave V down to $200 an oz, even while Gold kept rising and rising.

There seems to be this obsession with a rally off the bottom having to exactly fit your expectations, or else it doesn't have a chance of being a new Bull market. The rallies off of crash lows like we saw in January arent always perfect looking 5 wave moves up, but they still can be the beginning of the new move up.

Doesn't it make more sense to stick with the count that was correct, which labeled 5 waves down culminating in the January crash, and treat the price action over the past 2 months which has now turned many technical indicators bullish as being the new bull market move?

I don't mean to be overly critical, and I think your guys calls during 2014 were amazing (and they caused me to hold onto a good chunk of money which I then bought with in the 200s, instead of spending it all last year at higher prices, so thank you!) But why still be bearish after the count was fulfilled and we should be in a new upmove?

Thanks

The last wave down in January was a violent, panic-driven move. They were probably looking for a grinding, shallower, more drawn out move lower, which would be more indicative of a fifth wave. However, bitcoin trades like a commodity with a history of blowoff moves that are strongly reversed, indicative of extended fifth waves. There is a good chance it was an extended fifth and the bear market is done.