Quote from: arivar on May 07, 2015, 02:20:50 PM

Quote from: oblox on May 06, 2015, 04:28:40 PM

Not sure who would take the risk of writing that many put contracts at what I would consider pretty close to ATM (huge counterparty risk here that it doesn't get honored). Having said that, those saying he needs luck need to realize BTC is still in a downtrend, evident by the resistance trendline on a log scale that has yet to be breached (easily drawn on a weekly chart on nearly all exchanges). Below $290-315 depending on exchange, the trend is your friend and it's down. It's reality until it isn't.

EDIT: Even black-scholes puts the option price at about $8.50 given current volatility (which happens to be on the lower end).

Black scholes needs an annual implied volatility of 33% to valuate this put at $8.50. I highly doubt this is the case for btc options market.

I used the volatility index as a proxy: https://btcvol.info/

Granted, this is a rolling 30 day value so scale appropriately for annualized. I would say the implied vol is pretty accurate given historic swings even though we're at historically low levels of volatility.