Ninjastic
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
hdbuck
on 29/09/2015, 17:43:19 UTC
Quote from: Peter R on September 29, 2015, 05:22:23 PM
Quote from: chriswilmer on September 28, 2015, 10:01:15 PM
Quote from: Peter R on September 28, 2015, 09:55:07 PM
Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 28, 2015, 08:31:23 PM
Quote from: Peter R on September 28, 2015, 05:27:41 PM
Quote from: 600watt on September 28, 2015, 08:58:39 AM
Quote from: Feri22 on September 28, 2015, 08:38:35 AM
Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  Cool

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k  Wink  

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  

I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame.  I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull).  So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%.  

Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000.

Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0  + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500
Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187

So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now!  


Didn't know we were still using this forum Smiley


Haha well sometimes I check out the ol' Wall Observer for nostalgic reasons.

To the other readers here: I believe many of the older posters no longer feel welcome at BitcoinTalk after the Forum Administration locked the "Gold Collapsing. Bitcoin UP" thread.

If readers are wondering where cypherdoc, solex, sickpig, awemany, theZerg, Justus Ranvier, Inca, molecular, AdrianX, Zanglebert Bingledack, chmod755, Erdogan, Ivanhow, Melbustus, lunarboy, humanitee, Zarathustra, rocks and others are, well please come over and say hi:

https://bitco.in/forum