Quote from: smooth on October 01, 2015, 01:16:06 AM

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on October 01, 2015, 12:32:07 AM

Quote from: smooth on September 30, 2015, 09:46:18 PM

Quote from: sidhujag on September 30, 2015, 09:33:00 PM

Quote from: SmoothCurves on September 30, 2015, 09:29:07 PM

If Martin's model is to be believed. How low can we expect Bitcoin to go? and by When? Is Under $100 in Spring of '16 a safe bet?

I think bitcoin does not go low, he doesnt state anything about bitcoin

Dollar going high is pretty much the same as bitcoin going low, all else being equal.

On what basis?

Because the main usage of Bitcoin is speculation and it frequently trades in line with commodities (and likewise inverse with the dollar) as others have pointed out here.

That's not a fixed relationship, but it is a good baseline for the short term. Even the Bitcoin peak in 2013 coincides with a relatively low in the dollar. Although gold peaked a bit earlier, in 2012, both Bitcoin and gold have collapsed as the dollar strengthened in 2014 and 2015.

I am one of those who argued that other than an initial acceleration because it was new, Bitcoin had more or less correlated with gold with the short-term noise filtered out. I believe my posts on that are in klee's PnF thread.

But the entire point is dollar and the US stocks will shift to align with Private assets because of this unique situation where the dollar is the reserve currency and the $9 trillion of QE ended up as a bond carry trade abroad due to the effects of ZIRP incentivizing bond investors to seek yield abroad and the Western and China Central Banks essentially guaranteeing that emerging markets would not be allowed to go down by not allowing any defaults any where. Thus now there is this massive short position on the dollar which can't unwind without causing the dollar to appreciate which will in turn cause investors to want to hold US dollar denominated investments and thus will ignite a speculative frenzy into US stocks (because all other assets around the world are collapsing, Minsky Moment deflation is accelerating).

The BIG BANG is all about this massive phase shift. Evidence even China's Central Bank head has admitted in public that the bubble has burst and they can't stop it.

Gold will separate from commodities, because it will be seen as hedge against collapsing government. Commodities will tank because of deflation.

We've been waiting for this for a long time. Finally the distinction between gold as a commodity and gold as private money arrives. The problem for gold is that it is physical and the governments are very good at tracking physical things now, because cash is not very physical any more. Any significant value of transaction is rarely done with cash any more and this will become even more and more the case over the coming years.

Thus crypto... and that is why we are all here... and that is why I am happy to report I am having my 3rd consecutive day of good health. Hopefully we can get this coding running at full speed now. Fingers crossed.