Quote from: dooglus on October 06, 2015, 03:53:21 AM

Quote from: hopenotlate on October 05, 2015, 08:09:55 AM

Quote from: jpcfan on October 05, 2015, 08:03:35 AM

Quote from: NLNico on October 05, 2015, 07:53:33 AM

I made this page for it http://dicesites.com/moneypot and the most popular MP site has historical stats/graphs: http://dicesites.com/betterbets If you do the extra math it can give a decent impression of the expectations, although it's not really complete.

very nice page. love the stats

Completely agree, that spread between profit and expected profit is exactly what I was looking for: it really display if investors (looking from my perspective) have been lucky, unlucky or they are just earning what they expect to.

You shouldn't allow the historical charts to influence your decision of whether to invest or not.

What happened in the past has no bearing on what happens in the future in terms of whether gamblers perform better or worse than expected. All you should consider is your expected earnings going forward, the variance, and how much you trust the site.

For example, Just-Dice for BTC had a house edge of 1%, but an actual profit of around 0.35% after billions of bets, whereas Just-Dice for CLAM has the same house edge but an actual profit of 1.47% after almost a billion bets. That's over 4 times higher. Does that mean that Just-Dice for CLAM is 4 times better as an investment? No, it doesn't. Going forward it is expected that gamblers will lose 1% of everything they bet.

Am not arguing with you on this matter cause I recognize your superiority in the field.

Just want to explain better my thoughts about the bolded part: contrary of what you wrote I assume JD for BTC would be a better investing option because in the long run (I expect) profit will rise to reach EV .