Quote from: bitrider on November 04, 2015, 07:57:39 PM

Quote from: jehst on November 04, 2015, 06:08:30 PM

Armstrong is a macro guy. he's tracking capital movement of billions and trillions. Something like bitcoin can completely go nuts based on a a few individuals buying or selling 100 million dollars worth of bitcoin. We shouldn't be surprised by anything bitcoin does. It can decouple from the macro movements because it is still too small and volatile. The USD might appreciate 20% against bitcoin because of macro factors that Armstrong is correct on, but we're in the situation where a relatively small amount of capital can move bitcoin up or down 100%. I'm far more likely to pay attention to this macro capital movement stuff when trading big currencies like the British pound or stock indexes like the S&P. Bitcoin can go off the reservation at any time.

This. I have a strong trust in Armstrong's overall read of the cycles & big capital flows. But BTC is still very small and its volatility is probably separate (and mostly uncorrelated) from broader macro moves. At least for the next year or so.

Indeed. But liquidity contagion...

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on November 05, 2015, 02:22:19 AM

Quote from: THX 1138 on November 04, 2015, 01:41:26 PM

I concur that you predicted $315 in May and that you believed there was the possibility of it going to $440.

...

(currently $495)

This $380 - 440 was a near-term technical projection (target to be reached before roughly Oct 1 afair if it did, otherwise new technical projections would be required) on a chart and has nothing to do with Armstrong's model for a low in gold this coming Spring 2016. Also that technical projection may have increased by now (Nov. 5).

The price is going crazy volatile now if it was up to $495 while I was sleeping and then below $400 when I woke up.

Coinbase announced they are supporting the BitcoinXT block size increase in December. Rumors China will make Bitcoin legal. And the CHKLOCKVERIFY opcode to enable Lightning Networks has been moved into the Bitcoin code and to be a reality no later than early 2016.

Bitcoin could be diverging from gold. It is possible especially considering it is an orthogonal global speculation vehicle. Armstrong has documented yesterday that some stock markets appeared to have bottomed on his Oct 1 (2015.75) turn date.

The theory that Bitcoin would mimick Armstrong's gold bottom timing was my guess, not Armstrong's.

However, the liquidity contagion has not yet hit the sovereign debt crisis. Thus speculation is renewed. Let's see what happens to liquid assets such as gold and cash (Bitcoin) once there is a liquidity crisis. Also this pump would be a great manipulation for those who did it so they could borrow BTC to go short.

This nosebleed rise has all the markers of a pump and dump job.

If I had enough $ to speculate with, I would go leveraged short at $500. Alas, I am just converting BTC to USD so I can be sure I have the cash to pay my bills so I can code an altcoin.