Quote from: Barnabe on July 06, 2016, 10:31:26 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 06, 2016, 08:32:45 PM

[edited out]

It's already difficult making assuptions and speculations in terms of absolute values. Probabilities would be better, but this way you lose the point of an estimation. The estimation is a simple idea of what is it worth for you. If you put probabilities you could have an infinity number of estimations which makes no sense.

It is neither impossible nor necessarily confusing to outline probabilities for various scenarios.

Below are two probabilities' projections that I made.

The below first one I made on March 7, 2016:

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 07, 2016, 05:51:48 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on March 07, 2016, 05:40:46 PM

Quote from: magicmexican on March 07, 2016, 04:29:45 PM

500$ btc when?

Probably as a result of the block reward halving, so in the summer. Nobody can unequivocally tell you that though.

Yeah...... I agree generally summer-ish.

Based on current market dynamics, I would predict going above $500 to be anywhere between 1 day and 2 years.

In my current thinking, the range of probabilities of going above $500 would look something like this.

1-5 days = less than 2%

6-15 days = less than 8%

16-30 days = about 20%

31-60 days = about 30%

61-120 days = about 50%

121-364 days = about 80%

1 year to 2 years = about 95%

Any better predictions?

By the way, I would think that at this current moment and these current market conditions, most regular and somewhat knowledgable bitcoiners would also place the odds of bitcoin prices going above $500 first to be better than the odds of going below $300 first, but I'm sure that there are a number of outlier opinions on that.

Below is another prediction of probabilities that I made on May 10, 2016:

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 10, 2016, 09:30:48 PM

Quote from: Fakhoury on May 10, 2016, 12:15:40 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 10, 2016, 03:39:01 AM

Quote from: Fakhoury on May 10, 2016, 03:13:13 AM

By the way bother, you shocked me when I saw you believeing in $25K - $250K within 5-10 years as I don't know if you re-call or not when we were talking on PM, you had nearlly 0.x% chance that we will reach those values within the given timeframe.

Don't get me wrong, you are a buddy and brother of mine, I just see and understand you are a bull and not a permabull like the minority rest of us.

I would like to know what caused to elevate your bullishness to that level, I'm extremely happy btw to see you crazy like us Tongue

I understand what you are saying when you assert that it appears that I may have become more bullish in the past several months; however, really, in spite of the apparent inconsistencies, I don't believe that I have become more bullish than previously without some kind of actual reason based on actual market performance (at least, not in any significant or apparently contradictory way).

More or less, I think about it like this. There is almost no way that the performance of bitcoin is completely mathematical (sure there is quite a bit of math involved in terms of network effects and reliability of the infrastructure etc) because it largely involves the behaviors (actions and reactions) of human beings. So even though some things in bitcoin can be determined by math, we cannot really know how the behavior of human beings is going to play out and affect bitcoin in both positive and negative ways.

Look, we PM'd each other in September 2015, a week or two before bitcoin prices took off into a 2x bull run, in which none of us could have really anticipated, and also after nearly 2 years of downward price manipulation. Those factors, and the place that we are at the moment, affect viewpoint - short term and long term and the various measures that may need to be taken in order to protect one's position (and investment).

There have been a lot of decent developments since September 2015, and also some real significant tests of the downside of bitcoin's price under those recent scenarios.

Actually, when I PM'd you in September 2015, I gave you very specific probability ranges for various prices in the 5 year projection and the 10 year projection, and in my most recent post, I asserted "decent and reasonable possibilities of $25k to $250k". Anyhow, I believe the outline of my September 2015 predictions and viewpoints can serve as a very decent thought experiment, and yeah, surely I would not mind filling those in again with actual guestimates of my feelings and viewpoint as of today. If you want a follow-up post, then I will do it.. I think that it is a very good topic for this thread and for others to chime in if they want.

Thank at first my friend for getting my point the correct way and understood that I care for our friendship

Second, I would like to see a follow-up post please comparing your Sept. 2015 predictions and possibilities with the $25K-$250K and the reasons you believe in for the $25K-$250K ones as well.

I know this will take time and effort from you, thanks in advance and really so much appreciated, but as I always said, I always learn from you guys, especially from my dear friends, like you

Thank you for this discussion point.

I believe it is a good thought exercise to consider our own views of the future and price possibilities (in our own thinking), and surely such an exercise can be specific and at the same time demonstrate how our subjective feelings can materialize into somewhat evolving views of probabilities.

Heres the substance of what I predicted to you via PM in late September 2015.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 27, 2015, 02:59:14 AM

Probably, the below is a decent snapshot of my opinion... [regarding] 10 years and $100K

5 years:
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 10-20% chance
$500 to $1000 20-25% chance
$1000 to $5000 15-20% chance
$5000 to $20,000 < 5% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 < 3% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 2% chance

Heres my current speculation, and I feel that my numbers have not changed too much. Of course, I am no expert, and I am kind of guessing off the seat of my pants and based on the totality of my current information and impression of circumstances regarding how the space has been developing:

5 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 5-25% chance
$500 to $1000 25-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 8-30% chance
$5000+ about 8% chance

10 years:
less than $200 < 1.5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 1.5-3.5% chance
$300 to $500 3.5-15% chance
$500 to $1000 15-22% chance
$1000 to $5000 20-40% chance
$5000 to $20,000 5-15% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 3-10% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 3% chance

I would be interested to see how others plug in these kinds of predictions.