Quote from: MoonShadow on March 21, 2013, 05:09:32 AM

Quote from: mccorvic on March 21, 2013, 04:54:27 AM

Quote from: arklan on March 21, 2013, 04:47:38 AM

Quote from: 100x on March 21, 2013, 01:27:12 AM

I owed $15 to this girl I am hooking up with, and she was excited to get 0.3 bitcoins instead! She said she was gonna use it to pay for her kids to go to college (mostly jokingly lol)

This must mean we are in a bubble Cheesy

ok, that's almost as bad as that investor who, in 1929, was getting his shoes shined and the fricken SHOE SHINE BOY was talking about stocks and such. guy went and pulled his investments immediately. crashed happened the next day or something. i forget who this was. one of the big names.

I don't think the analogy works with bitcoin. Our goal has been to push adoption in order to push main stream acceptance and usage. I find it strange that all of a sudden we are trying to act shocked, SHOCKED, that people we talk to about bitcoin continuously start to show interest in bitcoins.

People talking about bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble. People being interested in bitcoin is not a sign of a bubble. It's a sign that bitcoin is doing what it is supposed to be doing.

My problem with that theory is that much of the recent gains are due to a recent rash of good news. What happens when there is bad news? Granted, the good news is real news, but it's been decidedly pro-Bitcoin for weeks. We are due some bad news, like a major exchange hack. We are, IMHO, beyond a price point that is justifiable with the current size of the actual bitcoin economic activity alone. Hype leads to speculative bubbles. We all know this. What we don't know is how long we can ride it before sentiment turns sour. What happens to the European banking panic when the asinine deposit tax proposal in Cyprus goes down in flames? Or there is a compromise that doesn't spell the worst? The sudden influx of Euro denominated wealth cannot be maintained. Once the pool of risk adverse Europeans (an irony, I know) has all moved the greater part of their deposits into Bitcoin (or gold/silver/whatever) who is going to be left to support the bid wall? Can that bid wall be supported by Argentines and Iranians evading capital controls? I doubt it. That's what Bitcoin is good for, but it doesn't really matter so much what the exchange price actually is if Bitcoin is only being used as a workaround for a bottleneck in the fiat currency system.

Stocks tend to oscillate around the "fair value". There is no such thing for bitcoin, though, it all depends on how many people want to hold what amount of value in bitcoin.

estimate:
PayPal has ~110 million users. Wild guess: each of them will want to hold on average $200 of value in bitcoin for various reasons like purchasing stuff, hedging against inflation, speculation.

110 * 200 / 21 = 1047 usd/btc

Grin