Quote from: Crazy on March 27, 2013, 03:59:29 PM

Is there any evidence to suggest your theory of cause and effect? My theory is that some mainstream news hits first, and that induces new speculative traders, not the other way around. In my opinion, speculation started mostly when Romney's tax returns were being held for ransom. This built some speculative traders, which drove up the valuation, which induced reports on "the resurgence of bitcoin" which fed even more speculation, like a vicious cycle. In my opinion, this will culminate with a confidence crushing crash, and that's unfortunate, because IMHO, it's due to greed not fundamentals.

The price of a currency is calculated as follows:
val=Y/(V*M) V~1/year and M~10^7. It all depends on what Y is and could become. It's that simple. Instead of guessing on booms and busts shooting from the hip, you should make a qualified guess on what Y could become.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equation_of_exchange