Quote from: ComputerGenie on January 08, 2017, 01:55:15 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 08, 2017, 12:17:48 PM

yep and more hash = lower odds.

if you have 1% of the worlds hash your odds are 1/100 x 1/100 or 10,000 to one of ever pulling 3 in a row

if you have 1% of the worlds hash your odds are 1/100 x 1/100 x 1/100 or 1,000,000 of pulling the next 3 in a row

That needs an edit Undecided

Nope. It's correct.
When you find a block, you've ... found a block already.
In the first case, there's no requirements on finding the first block ... it's just some time in the future.

Edit: to avoid littering the thread with garbage again:

I'll step off the big numbers and give an example with smaller numbers.
We'll use 2 instead of 3 ...

What are the chances that a 1% pool will find 2 blocks in a row.
1/100

Why? Coz the assumption is that you can find one block.

Once you've found one block you have specified something about finding a second block ... "It's in a row"
i.e. "block 2" is the next block after "block 1"
We didn't specify anything about "block 1", except the assumption that we can find a block.

So this leads to the fact that, if we can find a block, then the probability of finding a block is ... 1
Now there's a minor adjustment to that:
We may not find a block.
However, since we've effectively been given infinite time to find a block, the probability is 'almost 1'
So for the purpose of the question, it's assumed to be ... 1

So the chances of finding 2 blocks in a row is 1 x 1/100 = 1/100

Next:
What are the chances that a 3% pool will find 2 blocks in a row.
3/100 or 1/33.333...

Lets pretend I don't know what I'm talking about

1/33.333... x 1/33.333... = 1/1111.111...

So that would say we really should have only maybe found 2 in a row, about once or twice, maybe three times if we were quite lucky.

Checking the history of the pool ... OMG ... we've done it ... lotsa times! Not once or twice or thrice.

To be exact it's ... 40 times!

Code:

340928 340929
348799 348800
386502 386503
391919 391920
397983 397984
398704 398705
399427 399428
399826 399827
400295 400296
405447 405448
407091 407092
407143 407144
407467 407468
407574 407575
409157 409158
410864 410865
414165 414166
414516 414517
414535 414536
414888 414889
415569 415570
415599 415600
416188 416189
416629 416630
417042 417043
418031 418032
418424 418425
419390 419391
420957 420958
421894 421895
421921 421922
422212 422213
423186 423187
427673 427674
428452 428453
428700 428701
430861 430862
432365 432366
438561 438562
439746 439747

Ego: something is wrong ... ah it's this:
"Lets pretend I don't know what I'm talking about

1/33.333... x 1/33.333... = 1/1111.111..."