Quote from: vinylwasp on January 20, 2017, 10:35:47 PM

Quote from: m1n1ngP4d4w4n on January 20, 2017, 07:11:25 AM

But this calculator doesn't count the increase of difficulty, and it's the crucial thing for ROI. 1y of ROI is fine, but with ASIC you find it to be more like 2+ years.

You may assume this is the case but there's no guarantee that diff will increase any further and even if it does there's still no guarantee that it will increase consistently for 12-24 months.
If you look at LTC diff chart from Oct 2014 to Oct 2015 when Titans and A2's came on stream, diff increased to 58,000 in Dec 2014, and then fell back to just above 40,000 for 6 months before rising slowly to 58,000 again by the end of 2015, so for most of 2015 it was 10,000 below the starting point.
http://www.coindesk.com/data/litecoin-mining-difficulty-time/ Check the 'All' button.

The real question is how many L3's are going to be produced? If you look at the figures below 550 GH/s has been added to the Litecoin network alone since the 3rd of Jan.
Jan 20 2017    95,319    7.56%    2,729 GH/s
Jan 17 2017    88,617    5.96%    2,537 GH/s
Jan 14 2017    83,632    11.56%    2,395 GH/s
Jan 10 2017    74,964    -0.52%    2,146 GH/s
Jan 07 2017    75,357    -0.79%    2,158 GH/s
Jan 03 2017    75,959    -1.36%    2,175 GH/s

550 x 1000 / 250 = 2200 L3's. In total I'd imagine Batch 1 was 2500 or 3000 L3's with the rest mining alt-coins. How big will batch 2 be? I'd suggest we need to be prepared for another 2-2500.

The other factor is price. With the PBOC authorities cracking down on exchanges, the price has crashed and can probably only rise in the next 12-24 months. This will affect Bitmains production plans as low profitability will kill sales while people are using ROI calculators to assess profits, but can also change your ROI dramatically if you mine and hold. Factor in 10% per 6 months and see how that changes things. Of course prices could fall, but LTC itself is very stable so I doubt it.

One of my strategies is to get paid out in Shadowcash, Monero, MaidSafeCoin, ZCash, etc in the belief that these will continue to rise significantly in 2017.

Overall, the main problem with the available calculators is that they only consider one coin. If you mine on a multi-pool you should be able to make 10% to 30% more after fees than mining LTC alone. Once you factor that it and play with the risks and factors above, you might have a very different ROI calculation.

Try using 0.0000225 BTC per Mh/s per day as your payout, I think thats a fairly realistic figure to start with.

don't disagree accept if Bitmain follows the same strategy as it has with BTC miners..they will dump a lot to have us chumps pay for their data halls stuff..and then
difficulty will wane but at a difficulty level un-workable for us..it is how they roll imho or at least what is going on with their BTC miners.....

I just can't see data halls with btc miners much (except them with the T9) when it makes so much more sense to use the bitmain L3's at 400 watts and take over
this crypto as well....its the math vs reward...so imho I see a LOT of former btc china data halls making a move to scrypt miners instead with bitmain and then of
course how many bitmain needs for such as in its own data centers..and of course how many they plan on the home miner route to help fund above.

(curently climbing cell tower....figure at a 2.5% difficulty rise for LTC my Titans will be out by July and the L3's will be out by sept/oct.)

Hope I'm wrong..but this looks a lot like the difficulty hump that tossed all home miners out of BTC in 2014..very deja vu like Sad