Quote from: Deprived on April 11, 2013, 01:41:50 PM

Actually I think you'll find part of the reason for the discount on Cognitive shares IS the existence of COG.F. Cognitive shares will tend to fall until they're slightly above COG.F. They've likely fallen too far - but in the recent bull market for BTC nearly all share prices have been taking a kicking (ASICMINER being the notable exception). Certainly, at a MINIMUM, Cognitive should be trading at .125 + the expected dividends to be paid out until COG.F hardware arrives.

That's unless someone has done the math and determined that even with the COG.F hardware it's still overpriced at .125. I haven't actually done the math for Cognitive on that - but it's not impossible. The approximate value of Cognitive ignoring COG.F is the cost of 7 Singles equivalent at the new prices + the 2nd-hand value of the existing mining gear converted into BTC and divided by the outstanding shares. As that's what it would cost to order that hardware now. That would then need to be marked up because it's an already running company with infrastructure in place and a solid reputation. And further marked up because pre-orders already in place are worth more than new orders. But that's how I value mining companies - haven't actually done it for Cognitive yet though (I've been lazy and been trading it based on a floor price of around .12).

Until the BFL's ASIC are confirmed being shipped and not some April Fool's prank, those 7 BFLs are vaporware and should not be priced in Cognitive. Also, to only price Cognitive in BTC is a mistake. I have been pricing everything in my local currency as can be seen in my earlier posts. As an article today better explains than I could ever:

Quote from: http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/04/exchange-rates?fsrc=rss

To put things simply: every good in Bitcoinia is an import and every job must be offshored. In that kind of economy, exchange-rate volatility matters a very great deal indeed.

Any new person just getting into bitcoin and then using their bitcoins to purchase shares of Cognitive would be paying a price of the BTCUSD * COGNITIVE. For example, at the peak, if someone wanted to purchase Cognitive they would have paid $260 * 0.1 = $26.00/share. This is in contrast to the IPO in which Cognitive was about $2.50/share.

Is that overpriced? I am not sure as the BFLs are a mystery. At some point after all the missed deadlines by BFL they should be written off.