Quote from: iamnotback on April 02, 2017, 04:54:17 AM

@miscreanity what I see on those charts is that Bitcoin is making lower highs and lower lows after the $1280 (isn't that a double-top from the peak intraday price in 2013?), which is short-term bearish. And the candlesticks on Litecoin are forming a wedge pattern which about to breakout, either to the upside or downside (but normally such a pattern will continue in the direction it was on, so upside breakout).

Combine that chart understanding with the fundamental understanding of Bitcoin as Nash's ideal money, and that is why I posit that Bitcoin can't move higher until Litecoin catches up.

Perhaps my hypothesis is totally wrong, but I've shared it all in open source for others to respond to.

Not necessarily wrong, likely just incomplete - as all of our models are. There's no way to keep up without computer assistance.

I use Bitfinex numbers for Bitcoin, and on 03/25 (I dislike the American style of M/D/Y but am accustomed to it over D/M/Y) the low of 888.20 was in which was just a few dollars away from the bottom of the accelerated uptrend channel at 885.40 (uncannily, that price was a Gann level as well on the weekly charts and Bitcoin bottomed almost exactly at the cross where those two lines intersected). Since then, we can see the hourly chart has a consistent stair-step appearance with a rise followed by consolidation and little correction, if any - something that I've seen a number of times with markets that are throwing off weak hands prior to acceleration by denying (re)entry points (notably gold & silver in 2011).

For these kinds of markets, keep a core position for hodling and some funds in reserve to buy on the first or second dip after a spike that breaks out of the previous range. Only use the reserve amount to trade with, and wait for a major decline that is typically >10% to even consider selling from core holdings. The spike after such a drop is the best time to sell between a 1/3-2/3 of holdings; you may only get ~80% of the high but you have much more solid confirmation. I would also avoid aggressively trading any beyond daily levels, 1-4 hour is good but be attentive.

As each of the projection lines is crossed, the price generally moves toward the top of the next channel or its midpoint. The blue line is a channel border and the dashed lines are channel midpoints.

Quote from: iamnotback on April 02, 2017, 04:54:17 AM

Quote from: miscreanity on April 02, 2017, 04:18:05 AM

I doubt we'll have to wait more than a few weeks to start seeing some movements, but it may be a few months before the primary upward trend resumes with strength - potentially as an inflection point of the expected phase transition.

You mean the BTC upward trend?

I am hypothesizing that BTC will be range-bound (eyeballing it perhaps $800 - $1150ish), until Litecoin has clearly signaled that it is resuming its relevancy and on the way towards an ATH.

As for ETH, it was more compelling when it looked like there was no other Lightning Networks alternative to Bitcoin, given that Ethereum's LN clone named Raiden is nearing beta. I think those who diversified from BTC into ETH, take profits when ever it rises relative to BTC.

Yes, the trend toward 2000+ in which the top of the accelerated channel is approximately 1406 for month end. If that is exceeded, I'd expect another acceleration.

We'll know soon if the ~800-1150 range will hold. I'm looking at 1125-1130 and 1164 as resistance for the next few days.

ETHBTC is very interesting right now. The end of the month saw BTCUSD close at the top numbers while ETHBTC closed barely above monthly support. I'm still holding because any announcement could send it to a multiple, and my positions are diversified, but where is that ETHBTC going? Is it staying in BTC? Maybe it's going to LTC? Ripple?

Ripple has doubled again thanks to beating all others to the punch with payment channels. It seems as though the effort to peg the unit to $0.01 has been abandoned. The long-term downtrend line has been breached and, if it holds for the week, will be decisively broken to the upside with a target of 0.00007-0.0001 or higher. Aside from a few interesting aspects, I don't like Ripple any more than you, but it can't be ignored.

The most important thing to observe now is the crypto-crypto vs fiat-crypto flow. The LTCBTC flow certainly looks to push LTC higher. However, it still does not seem to be at the expense of BTC, which is most likely due to the fiat-crypto flow; as you pointed out, Bitcoin is the gateway to the crypto environment and funds will flow through BTCUSD to others. That process is ramping up quickly - each of these wild rises in exchange rates is similar to a pot of water coming to a boil as the phase transition is approached.

Due to these flows, I think we could easily see BTC and LTC rise together. LTC will simply rise faster, assuming the hypothesis holds.

Quote from: thejaytiesto on April 02, 2017, 05:01:09 PM

The fact that LTC limits itself to be a BTC clone is a feature, and the small differences which make it more realistic to get segwit enabled are what makes it a good candidate to actually get used in transactions along with its "original alt" network effect.

As far as how high it will go.. who knows, but better be holding some LTC for the time being.

Yes, LTC is the closest drop-in replacement for BTC should such an infrastructure shift become necessary.

Edit: while posting, Ripple hit 0.00007 and subsequently pulled back below the 0.00005 level. I'd look to sell between 0.00006/7 on a bounce, then wait and observe.