Quote from: benderr on May 01, 2013, 11:36:46 PM

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Quote from: arepo on 20:01:44, 27 April 2013

you guys are fools if you think we're going to break $120 any time soon.
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Roll Eyes

thanks for the accountability. i qualified this failed prediction a few posts ago:

Quote from: arepo

Quote from: seleme on May 01, 2013, 04:39:42 AM

Quote from: arepo on May 01, 2013, 04:34:59 AM

Quote from: afbitcoins on May 01, 2013, 12:08:10 AM

Broke out the wrong way

Quote from: ElectricMucus on May 01, 2013, 12:12:54 AM

Again stop using triangles dammit.

why not? the breakout was anticipated perfectly, the direction not so much. working on an accountability report right now, trying to determine the factors that contributed to the failure of the last projection.

--arepo

I could save you some time - someone dumped 10k coins, and some others dumped 2 x 5000 earlier. People were not buying in masses in meantime.

That's it, I should patent a name for it, DUMPA20000 or something Grin

yes, i was watching, and it was clear that the dump was a single or a few entities, not an emergent movement. there's a lot of bearish news in the air, and the market is short-term overbought. i'm trying to determine if we should expect $120 to hold, or if we're gearing up for a correction-to-the-correction of the bullish move to $165. i highly suspect these individuals were attempting to 'paint the tape', as a very bullish consolidation turned very suddenly into a very bearish picture. this event will be good to consider in another problem i'm working on, can/does price manipulation break standard methods of TA?.

--arepo

notme also added his (very valuable) 2-cents:

Quote from: notme on May 01, 2013, 05:43:16 AM

Artificially increasing the volatility will only transfer money from them to me. There are lots of other market makers that feel the same. In the long run, it will make no difference.

However, this is an excellent example of why no TA is perfect (I know you don't believe this yourself arepo, just picking a teaching moment for new traders). People will do what they want despite what any sane trader would say about the chart. This is because many trade bitcoin who do not understand how to use short time frame TA properly: to make a planned trade more efficiently. Using it speculatively is very risky when you look at short time frames.

--arepo