The highest % of the outcome is that this is all a big fat bluff, just like xt, classic, and unlimited were. The actors at play know the consequences of a hardfork
SegWit 2x is not a hard fork until the change to 2MB base blocks, three months after SegWit activation. XT, Classic and Unlimited never had enough mining support to happen, and were not "bluffs", just "failed proposals".
Unlimited had a pretty high % of hashrate, higher than BIP141 in fact.
Now BIP141 is going up by the way, it's hitting all time highs recently. There's still time for miners and everyone else involved in the hardfork to avoid a war they will lose at the expense of every holder's loss, by enabling segwit by means of BIP141.
I think SegWit will get activated. But I do not think this would be a losing war for the Miners.
. I reckon they just can't hedge the risk.