Quote from: Dark_Element on July 15, 2017, 08:36:04 AM

Quote from: adaseb on July 15, 2017, 08:11:35 AM

I understand what you are saying.

I've traded stocks also and know how "Earnings exceed expectations" but yet the stock goes down anyways since most of the retail market is in it, kind of like TSLA or AAPL.

The problem with your theory is that its never correct all the time. Your theory works half the time. Sometimes the retail market gets screwed, sometimes it doesn't.

So even if you take contrarian positions everytime, you will lose money anyways.

Yes on Aug 1st there can be GREAT news, and BTC can go down due to manipulation.

Or the exact opposite can happen. So how exactly do you trade it to make money? You can't.

Its no different than a moving average indicator.

Maybe I've been lucky then.... almost every great score I've had was betting against the herd (and far more winners than losers there, even doing it blind).
Doing great work on fundamentals would bite me every time.... Every time!!! T/A on the other hand was 55%-45% for straight T/A, and 70%-30% when using systems and indicators I program.
I've been lobbying my stock program developer to integrate a Crypto data feed into their software.... I sure hope they do it soon. They are very hesitant to add them. Like it's a fad or something.

I've been in some great stock trading rooms over the years though... learned from some really incredible people (and paid a lot to learn from them). It is not a flip of the coin by any means.
Best trader I ever had the pleasure of knowing was a higher up at Morgan Stanley... he was beyond incredible. He was almost exclusively a contra-sentiment trader. Pure instinct, and he was right 80% of the time, just by "feel". One of the only people I would call "naturally gifted" when it came to day trading.

But on the "how exactly do you trade it to make money?", oh I can answer that no problem..... Use a really good Revert To Mean, and you're ok 80% of the time.... but only if you're fast and not greedy. Doesn't matter which direction the movement is: and with the volatility these coins have.... it's a dream come true to me.

-DE

Thanks DE for sharing your thoughts. While I am still a noob at the crypto trading. I've been trading for more than a decade and have seen my share of recessions cycles.

Given the sudden rise this year of crypto, I think it still has to shed 20-40% and the approaching August 1 could be the trigger, maybe not exactly on that date but it will happen.

My advise, if you are not a very good trader. HODL. If you think that crypto will be mainstream in the next 2-3 years to come, especially those coins or token that have good products that will come out late this year or early next year. Buy some more and hodl!

It really takes a lot of resolve to hodl if you see a stock or whatever coin you are holding fall down by 60-80%, but if you know that it has a good management and dev team + community behind it. It will come back up.

It takes grit to weather a violent storm but rewards are enormous.

Remember: Cash is also a position. I'm saving my Fiat for now and will buy some crypto if there is a good dip. Whatever it is that I currently have in crypto will just stay there, probably put it to work via Proof of Stake to make good use of it while waiting for those to mature in the years to come. I'll probably unload when crypto becomes mainstream, wherein everyone is buying/selling it, just like the stock market.