Quote from: RHavar on September 29, 2017, 04:08:10 PM

Quote from: iluvbitcoins on September 29, 2017, 03:02:35 PM

Ughh, fuck, I was wrong
9999 combinations x 9999
You're right
Sorry

Wow, that is hard to hit!
Even if it was 1 : million it would need to be over 160BTC to be profitable
So this way it would need to be 16 000BTC Shocked

Hmm, that doesn't sound right.

My back of the envelope calculations is anything >1000BTC. Each bet you have 1 in 10 million chance of winning the jackpot. To qualify for the jackpot you have to "spend" 0.0001 BTC in EV. So I think you can model it as approximately: (1 / 1e7) * jackpot - 0.0001 = 0 which gives you jackpot = 1000 to be 0EV, and thus everything above that "profitable"

If you make a 100 million bets, you only have a 64% chance of winning the jackpot
With a 1% loss on each rollover
1000BTC = 10 million 0.0001 bets
You need to make 10 rollovers in order to hit 100 million bets
Which should be a 10% loss according to the house edge, a loss of a 100BTC

0.0001BTC bets yield 1% of the jackpot
Which would be 10BTC
So a 1000BTC jackpot would yield 10BTC

So, basically with a 1000BTC jackpot, you'd lose 100BTC for a 64% chance to win 10BTC
Doesn't seem very positive EV to me

If chances of you losing the bet are 9999:1 (99.9%), then losing it twice in a row would be 0.999x0.999= 99.8%, losing it three times in a row 0.998x0.999= 99.7% etc. up until you get to a hundred million bets and a 36% chance of losing that bet

Therefore, a 1000BTC jackpot gives you a chance to win 10BTC while losing 100BTC to the edge at a 64% chance
Right?