Quote from: birr on September 30, 2017, 09:29:14 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on September 30, 2017, 04:02:47 PM

Quote from: aminorex on September 30, 2017, 03:44:29 PM

Quote from: Febo on September 30, 2017, 02:18:58 PM

For sure rare 3 months ago predicted Monero at $100 at end of September. Most thought HW wallet, mobile wallet and multisig will be the triggers.

Awesome call, that was. Lately I am more focussed on the (easier, on assumptions) longer-term estimation task:

Monero has consistently repriced higher with each positive development, and the number and scope of bullish developments in the pipe is increasing, not decreasing, as the price, hash and community all rise in tandem. It's the foothills of the exponential phase of adoption here. After, comes the super-exponential expansion phase, as n log n network effect kicks in, composed with a FOMO function. Eventually, the market saturates at a given development level, FOMO dies, and price pulls back, but until XMR denominates at least 10% of the 22 trillion USD dark global GDP and at least 1% of the 80 trillion light GDP (for PQ = 3 tUSD) the cycle keeps repeating in a larger S-curve on a scale of ca. 10 years. If the velocity is an historically typical 5, the market cap of XMR should top out in the neighborhood of 600 bn USD, and 1 XMR should be worth about 30k USD2012.

(The reason why BTC is over 4k now is not the size of the BTC economy, but the outsized reserve demand, which implies a much lower velocity of money.)

In the longer run (multiple decades) XMR value should grow with the global economy, so holding it will be like holding the DJ Global Index, in terms of future expectation at any given moment, which should be modulated by some XMR-specific risk factor.

I covet your enthusiasm currently. I am discouraged by the deflating XMR/BTC status.

S.O.P. for Monero.
Look at what just happened. Early August, XMR lost about a third of its value in less than a week. Bet you were discouraged then, too. Guess what? Super bear trap.
Immediately the xmr/btc exchange rate proceeded to triple in a matter of days.
Don't let Composite Man psych you out.
Feel like selling? May be your chance to buy.
I get pretty annoyed myself at the way the price seems to move with the deliberate attention of faking you out or just pissing you off totally.
Yeah, it goes down like a lead balloon at times. Look at what happens if you hold on, though.

Yeah, I've been around for a while... I'm familiar with the way XMR can be very fickle from a speculation perspective.

It is what it is, and at times it is tiresome.

But emotions are exactly as fickle as markets. I've learned to keep them in check. I can control emotions even if I cannot markets. But I will not pretend I do not believe XMR is exceedingly undervalued against XBT and the current value of USD.